Big Ten Tournament 2012 Bracket: What Northwestern Must Do to Reach Big Dance

If Northwestern is going to throw a nice wrench into selection Sunday, one of two things must happen this week in Indianapolis. The first is obvious. The second is much more difficult but much more realistic. 

The first answer is to win the tournament, which would give NU an automatic bid. But if we're talking about nabbing an at-large bid, the Wildcats' path has to be a little more specific. The worst thing about it is that the road doesn't only depend on what Northwestern does. Let's break it down round-by-round.

Round 1: Beat Minnesota

This is absolutely essential. If the Gophers pull an upset off, Northwestern has no leg to stand on in this quest. This shouldn't be a problem, but you never want to look too far ahead. The Wildcats need to have their focus exclusively on Minnesota. We can afford to look forward.

Round 2: Beat Michigan

A victory here is no less essential. A loss here would end the Wildcats' season at 19-13. They would significantly lack quality wins, as their record has largely been padded with victories over weaker teams. 

As things stand now, the only real big win Northwestern has enjoyed came against Michigan State. That will not get them to the Big Dance. 

Round 3: Beat Ohio State

This is where Northwestern has to hope for some things out of their control. Ohio State will take on the winner of Tuesday's Purdue vs. Nebraska game. The Boilermakers and Cornhuskers aren't quality enough opponents to put on an at-large resume. 

But a win against Ohio State is needed. Even with an additional win against the Wolverines, the resume is just not sexy enough. If you throw in a win against the Buckeyes, we're in business.

Round 4: Don't Get Blown Out

The existing win against Michigan State to go along with victories over Michigan and Ohio State would be great, but they can't follow it up with a 20-point loss in the finals. 

The last thing you want to put into the minds of the selection committee is a blowout loss to a strong team. That would be a huge setback on whatever progress had been made to that point. 

Unfortunately for Northwestern, if they don't win the tournament, all of these things need to happen. Now, if we're looking at how this has to happen, look at Dave Sobolewski. John Shurna and Drew Crawford have been stellar all year, but they need some help.

Opposing defenses can put all of their attention on those two. With the exception of Minnesota, all of the potential opponents would blow the Wildcats out without big contributions from Shurna and Crawford.

If Soboleski gets hot, it's not so easy to put all of the focus on those two. His shooting will be the key to this team's success in the tournament. That makes defenses have to play a more honest style against Shurna and Crawford, which opens them up for big games. 

Unfortunately, if they have to rely on Shurna and Crawford, it will lead directly to a second-round elimination, at best. If that happens, Northwestern will again be watching the NCAA Tournament from home.

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