March Madness 2012: Analyzing Every Upset Bid's Potential

The upset is quite possibly the most revered part of the NCAA tournament. Unknown squads making a name for themselves off a single gigantic win is more than just a common occurrence come March; it's a way of life.

The college basketball world has struggled with the concept of an "upset" for decades, always unable to classify at which seeding pair in the first round this brilliant part of the game became relevant. 

Some argued that only teams ranked as a No. 13 seed or below deserved the honor if they could pull it off, making the "club" a much more elite group. Others countered that even a No. 9 seed should receive the distinction in the first round, enlarging the clique tremendously.

According to sports-betting philosophy, an upset takes place when an underdog is victorious over the favorite. As simple a definition as this is, many discard it in this postseason due to the complicated setup of the seeding. 

The sport eventually came upon an "unspoken" definition of what an upset really is, classifying it as when any seed ranked five spots or more below their opponent wins. This would mean that the highest seed in first-round contention viable to create an "upset" would be a 12—the most common seed to earn such a recognition over the years, coincidentally.

As the true tournament takes off in just a few hours, we analyze every single region's Nos. 12-to-16 seeds and their potential to bring home an upset over their heavily-favored opponents. 

West (16) LIU Brooklyn

Making their way out of the Northeast Conference, Long Island has worked to make a name for itself this season. The Blackbirds average an impressive 82 points per game, the third highest mark in the country.

While a No. 1 seed has never lost in this round, don't put it past any No. 16 seeds to make it happen sometime soon. LIU Brooklyn is a solid team with a ton of scoring capacity, which should make Tom Izzo and company a little nervous going into this game.

The Blackbirds are led by junior forwards Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, each putting up at least 17 points per game as well as snaring 10 and eight rebounds, respectively. Long Island is also a very solid 2-0 versus an RPI 51-100 squad, taking down conference opponent Wagner twice during the season. 

This is a team MSU can't underestimate. Expect the Spartans to emerge victorious, but be wary of LIU Brooklyn's potential.

Chance of an Upset: Low  

West (15) Norfolk State

Coming in second out of the MEAC, the Spartans deserve much more credit than they're given. Sweeping their conference tournament to stake their claim for a spot in the Big Dance, NSU is on a roll and hopes to continue that streak against Missouri.

Led by senior center Kyle O'Quinn, Norfolk State is in prime position to shock the nation. Averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, O'Quinn is a strong post and will present this smaller Tigers team with a possible problem.

Finishing the year out with a 2-1 record against the RPI 51-100, including wins over LIU Brooklyn and Drexel, this team has more potential to move on to the next round than any other No. 15 seed.

Chance of an Upset: Medium-Low

West (14) BYU

The Cougars have already supplanted themselves in tournament history, establishing the record for the largest comeback win ever. Down to First Four opponent Iona by 25 points, BYU surged back to secure the win and move on as the No. 14 seed in the West.

This ridiculous accomplishment, however, will be of no assistance against Marquette, the Big East second-place finisher behind Syracuse. The Cougars' third place in the West Coast Conference behind St. Mary's and Gonzaga allows for some leeway for an upset possibility.

Led by senior forward Noah Hartsock and junior forward Brandon Davies, BYU has secured a 6-6 standing versus the RPI Top 100. Big-time victories over Gonzaga and Oregon give me some hope that the Cougars will match up well against a very talented Golden Eagles squad, especially coming into the game with some leftover momentum from the Iona comeback.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-High

West (13) Davidson

As the unmatched Southern Conference champions, the Wildcats move into the tourney with a taste for upsets. Facing off against a very tough Louisville squad, however, will provide an immediate challenge for this high-octane offense. 

Recording a 2-4 standing against the RPI Top 100, Davidson proved with their early win over Kansas that they are not to be overlooked. Upset potential is all about one's ability to win the big games, and the Wildcats more than have that quality. 

Led by sophomore forward De'Mon Brooks, Davidson will be a handful for any team. Unfortunately, facing off against the Cardinals, a squad that just won the Big East Title and ranks as one of the best defensive squads nationwide, is just a bad roll of the dice for the Wildcats.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low

West (12) Long Beach State

Considered one of the nation's top mid-majors this season, the high-powered 49ers are gunning to make a name for themselves in the Big Dance. Owning the Big West in a solid display of basketball, Long Beach finished their conference play with a single loss.

Led by senior guard Casper Ware, the 49ers are 2-7 against the RPI Top 100, with their strongest wins coming over Pitt and Xavier. While close losses may not count statistically as wins, I feel that LBSU proved their worth with a two-point loss to Creighton, a six-point loss to UNC and an eight-point loss to Kansas.

With the Lobos of New Mexico coming in with one of the strongest defenses I've seen all season, expect one of the better games of the first round to occur between these two. A favorite of mine to head onto the next round, Long Beach State is an upset squad poised to wreck havoc on some brackets.

Chances of an Upset: Extremely High 

Midwest (16) Vermont

Winning the American East Conference, the Catamounts will come into the tournament off a First Four win over Lamar. Taking on the No. 1 seed UNC, don't be expecting any miracles in this matchup.

Vermont is obviously one of the weaker No. 16 seeds, only getting in through the First Four. They have no wins over the RPI Top 100 and own a 6-4 record versus the RPI 101-200, scoring their strongest victories over Old Dominion and Lamar. 

Talent owns out in this first-round game where the Tar Heels will move on.

Chances of an Upset: Extremely Low

Midwest (15) Detroit

After placing only third in the regular season, the Titans came into their own during the Horizon League tournament, winning it outright over Valparaiso. A superb defense along with a strong offense has allowed for a better-than-decent seeding at No. 15, matching them against tournament-classic Kansas.

Run by sophomore guard Ray McCallum, Detroit is looking to bring home the school's biggest win ever. Racking up a 2-6 record against the RPI 51-100, the Titans' best victories came over Cleveland State and Valpo. 

Unfortunately for this young team, their good luck in tournaments won't continue against the Jayhawks. Kansas owns arguably the best player in the nation with junior forward Thomas Robinson, so don't get your hopes up for a first-round Jayhawks exit.

Chances of an Upset: Low

Midwest (14) Belmont

With another strong year in the Atlantic Sun Conference under their belts, the Bruins are looking to make a splash in this Big Dance. A top-notch yet underrated mid-major, Belmont may have the opportunity of a lifetime against Georgetown.

Led by junior guard Kerron Johnson, the Bruins are 2-4 against the RPI Top 100, with big-time wins over Middle Tennessee State and Marshall. Belmont's most impressive feats this season, however, have to be their season-opening one-point loss to Duke, as well as their ongoing 14-game win streak.

For the Hoyas, their last couple trips to the Big Dance haven't been all too pleasant, as they have only reached as far the second round on each occasion. Their bad luck may continue against the upset-minded Belmont, in a battle that should provide ample entertainment.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-High

Midwest (13) Ohio

Placing third in the MAC regular season, the Bobcats exploded for a strong conference tournament title and a berth in the Big Dance. Facing off against a strong squad in Michigan, Ohio will have more than a shot at the upset bid.

Headed up by junior guard D.J. Cooper, the Bobcats are an extremely impressive 7-2 against the RPI Top 100. Their strongest victories have come over Marshall, Akron and Buffalo, all conference foes.

Facing off against Ohio will be the Wolverines, a powerful shooting squad looking for a resurgence of their program in college basketball. Michigan has had a ton of trouble on the road, however, especially against tougher teams, giving the Bobcats a little breathing room to possibly sneak by them in the first round.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low 

Midwest (12) USF

A "VCU-esque" hopeful, the Bulls are looking to create the same kind of momentum that launched the Rams all the way to the Final Four. After a successful First Four win over Pac-12 opponent Cal (VCU won over Pac-12 foe USC), South Florida will face off against A-10 regular-season victor, Temple. 

Holding sixth place in the powerful Big East, USF is much more potent than many give credit. A strong 7-10 record against the RPI Top 100, with huge victories coming against Seton Hall, Cincinnati and Louisville, the Bulls may be the next No. 12 seed to pull off a team-defining upset.

Taking on the Owls from the Atlantic-10, USF will have the advantage of coming into the matchup off a win. The top team in their conference, Temple fell to UMass in an embarrassing end to their conference competition following the announcement that Owls basketball will be moving to the Big East following next year.

Chances of an Upset: High

East (16) UNC Asheville

As far as No. 16 seeds go, UNC Asheville is certainly one of the worst in the spread. Their first-place finish in the Big South is not that impressive, considering that it still only got them bottom placement and a shot at the overall No. 2 seed. 

Led by senior guard Matt Dickey, the Bulldogs are 1-6 against the RPI Top 150. They were probably saved from another First Four competition by Western Kentucky, when their surprise Sun Belt Conference tournament championship came into fruition.

'Cuse should roll over them with ease, even without Fab Melo.

Chance of an Upset: Extremely Low

East (15) Loyola Maryland

Sliding into the Big Dance off an MAAC tournament title, the Greyhounds are no true threat to the upper seeds. Taking on one of the top two seeds in Ohio State, Loyola-MD has a minimalistic shot at pulling off this upset of the year.

Led by junior forward Erik Etherly, Loyola-Maryland is 2-3 against the RPI Top 100, taking down Bucknell and Iona for their biggest wins. A lack of a strong schedule combined with an opponent that loves to wipe the floor with "underlings" will lead to certain defeat for the Greyhounds. 

Chances of an Upset: Low

East (14) St. Bonaventure

After a more than impressive Atlantic-10 tournament victory over Xavier, the Bonnies are gunning to forge some more headlines with them as the top squad. Rolling into the Big Dance, they had the bad luck of ending up with Florida State and their ACC tournament title for an opponent. 

Headed up by senior forward Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure is on a ride like many of them will never experience again. With almost no chance at getting in the Dance considering their third-place position in the A-10, the Bonnies found a way in with a spectacular display against the Musketeers in the conference tourney finals. 

Recording an 8-9 standing against the RPI Top 100, St. Bonaventure's top victories have come over Xavier, UMass and Dayton. While the Seminoles will have their hands full with the Bonnies, this is not a game to bet on the underdog.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low

East (13) Montana

Entering the Dance as one of the more unknown mid-majors, the Grizzlies have certainly been quite impressive this season. Facing off in the first round against Wisconsin, making it anywhere but back to Montana, will be extremely difficult.

Run by sophomore forward Kareem Jamar, Montana is 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, with their best wins coming against Weber State twice and Long Beach State. With a ton of scoring capacity, the Grizzlies have been on a roll as of late, entering the tournament with a 14-game winning streak.

Unfortunately, Wisconsin is just too good and will be looking for revenge after last year's early exit. Expect the battle of two of our nation's most northern states to end as a no contest in the Badgers' favor.  

Chances of an Upset: Low 

East (12) Harvard

Winning the Ivy League outright this season, the Crimson might finally be back on track to score some upsets in the Dance. A truly impressive year for one of the country's smartest universities, this No. 12 seed will be taking on SEC tournament champion Vanderbilt in an Einstein battle of basketball. 

Headed up by senior forward Keith Wright and junior forward Kyle Casey, the Crimson have been a force on the hardwood. Owning a 4-2 record against the RPI Top 100, including huge wins over Florida State, St. Joseph's and UCF, Harvard is gunning to prove everyone they're more than just a bunch of nerds.

The Crimson may have gotten one of the toughest No. 5 seeds out there in Vanderbilt, facing off against the Commodores directly after their SEC conference tournament finals victory over the top No. 1 seed Kentucky. Harvard hasn't played basketball in just under two weeks due to the lack of an Ivy League conference tournament, giving me an impression that they'll have a rough time competing against Vandy.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low 

South (16) Western Kentucky

The only team in the Dance with a losing record, Western Kentucky scored a bid to the Dance with an impressive Sun Belt conference tournament title. One of the eight First Four squads, they even were able to secure a spot in the field of 64 following their comeback win over Mississippi Valley State.

Now, however, we have to get real with the Hilltoppers. They are 2-8 against the RPI Top 100, with wins only over Middle Tennessee State and Denver. Not only that, but WKU will be taking on the overall No. 1 seed in the Kentucky Wildcats. There is no chance this upset has any kind of shot. 

Chances of an Upset: Astronomically Low

South (15) Lehigh

Placing second in the Patriot League after the regular season, the Mountain Hawks secured their seed in the Dance with a strong conference tournament title. Facing off against one of the most powerful programs ever in Duke, however, I have trouble giving Lehigh any real shot at emerging from this game the victor. 

Run by junior forward C.J. McCollum, the Mountain Hawks are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100. Defeating Wagner along with league foe Bucknell twice, Lehigh has proven almost nothing to the college basketball world that they can compete with, let alone take down, the winningest coach in the sport.

Chances of an Upset: Low 

South (14) South Dakota State

Emerging from the Summit League tournament with the title, the Jackrabbits stunned their conference en route to the Dance. SDSU's foe will be a very tough Baylor squad out of the Big 12, in what has to be one of the most athletically talented teams in the tourney.

Led by junior guard Nate Wolters, South Dakota State is a decent 3-2 against the RPI 51-100, taking home strong wins over Washington, Oral Roberts and Buffalo. Still rolling after winning their league title, not to mention eight games in a row, the Jackrabbits are positioned to possibly upset the heavily favored Bears.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low 

South (13) New Mexico State

Impressively stealing the WAC title, the Aggies are looking to prove their worth in the Big Dance. Taking on a resurgent Indiana squad, this matchup actually may end up being much closer than many expect.

Headed up by senior forward Wendell McKines, New Mexico State is an underachieving 1-6 against the RPI Top 100, getting their biggest victory over rival New Mexico. While the Aggies, statistically, don't seem to own a prayer, I personally see some potential for an upset that would stun the nation.

The Hoosiers have, in my opinion, peaked too early. Their Big Ten fallout in the conference tournament is a strong indicator of how they will perform come the Dance, and NMSU might just be the team to knock them off early on.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-Low

South (12) VCU

The Rams are back and they're poised for another run at the national title behind the brilliant coaching of Shaka Smart. Stealing the Colonial Athletic Association conference tournament title from the favored Drexel just to get into the Dance, it seems like VCU is going through deja vu.

Led by senior guard Bradford Burgess and sophomore forward Juvonte Reddic, the Rams are gunning to make a splash in the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive time. Avoiding the First Four in their quest for glory this postseason, VCU unfortunately has to match up with mid-major favorite Wichita State in the first round.

Racking up an impressive 6-4 record against the RPI Top 100, the Rams tallied strong wins over South Florida, Akron and George Mason. VCU may be in for one quick exit against the Shockers who, more than anything, desire to take revenge for being cut from last year's tournament due to the unlikely entrance of the Rams.

Chances of an Upset: Medium-High

For your printable bracket for the 2012 NCAA tournament, click here.