Roger Federer: Why Fed Needs to Hope Juan Martin Del Potro Loses

Thus far, Roger Federer has had an easy run at the Australian Open, but things could get a little more trickier if he were to meet No. 11 seed Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals.

Right now, both players look to be clear favorites to reach that round. Federer has only played one match so far, as his second-round opponent, Andreas Beck of Germany, had to forfeit the match.

There is no doubt the world No. 3 is well rested, but he needs to hope Del Potro loses one of his next two matches.

Here is why.

Rafael Nadal

If Federer is to get past whomever his opponent is in the quarterfinals, in all likelihood he will be pitted against longtime rival Rafael Nadal in the semifinals.

Of the four remaining opponents, Del Potro presents the greatest threat to Federer—as in he could easily take this match to five sets.

There is no way Federer wants to go into a match against Nadal after playing five grueling sets.

Nadal could run into similar problems, but that seems more likely to be the case in his fourth-round match against either fellow lefty Feliciano Lopez or towering American John Isner.

While it is a possibility that Federer could cruise through Del Potro, his safest route is one that doesn't involve them meeting in the quarters.

Del Potro is playing great

Through two matches, Del Potro has only dropped one set. That was the first set of the first match, and ever since then he has been on a tear.

He has only dropped 22 games in the six sets he has won, averaging just about three lost games a set. 

He has been able to stay strong throughout his matches, looking much like his old self.

One place he needs to be careful is with his serving. Through two rounds, Del Potro already has 11 double faults. If he keeps that up, there is no way he can get by Federer. If he can get his serve looking more consistent, he can be a serious threat to anyone in this tournament.

Del Potro has an easier path

Before he would get to the quarterfinals, Federer's next two opponents are Ivo Karlovic and either Bernard Tomic or Alexandr Dolgopolov.

All three of those opponents can give Federer a scare, but mostly Tomic, who has been playing lights out in front of the home crowd. That match would obviously be on Rod Laver, and it would be quite interesting to see what side the home crowd went with.

As for Del Potro, his remaining opponents are Yen-Hsun Lu and either Alejandro Fall or Phillipp Kohlschreiber. The most dangerous of those three is Kohlschrieber, but it is hard to imagine any of these three taking down Del Potro.

From the looks of it, Del Potro could potentially cruise through these next two rounds in straight sets. Federer, in the meantime, could get held up in maybe a four-, potentially five-set match.

Del Potro has defeated him—twice

Of the last three times these two have met, Del Potro has taken down Federer twice.

Both times were in 2009, one of which included the US Open final. Del Potro took that match in five sets, dominating Federer 6-2 in the fifth.

He took him down once again at the 2009 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals during the round-robin stage. 

Federer did get the best of him last, as he defeated the Argentinean in straight sets at last year's Masters in Cincinnati.

Federer does have the most recent win, but one can argue Del Potro was still on the road to recovery. 

If he is healthy, he could certainly make a fight to take his third match from Federer.

Jeff Chase is a featured columnist for the Chicago Cubs and Arizona State football.