Australian Open 2012: Complete Analysis of the Men's Draw

Last year, the Big Four dominated the slams. At least three always made the semifinals, and the top two split the titles between them, with Novak Djokovic taking three and Rafael Nadal one.

But this year may be different. There are new threats emerging on tour and some young contenders that could do some serious damage to the draw.

This article will analyze each quadrant, looking at the top threats to each respective member of the Big Four and the best first round matches from each section.

It's going to be a great event. 

First Quadrant

Djokovic should have no problem making it through. The only player that could challenge him before the third round is Stepanek, who's far past his prime.

Other Potential Challenges Later On

 -Hewitt, who is too old and has had too many surgeries to make a deep impact, even though he has strong crowd support.

-Roddick, who has fallen off lately but could make a good run depending on which Andy shows up.

-Tipsarevic, who is always a dangerous player, but doesn't have the game to take down an in-form Djokovic.

-Gasquet, who has always been among the most talented players on tour but tends to collapse mentally on the big stage.

-Ferrer, who will probably make a deep run but doesn't have the weapons to take a major from the big four.

Best First Round Matches

Mahut v. Stepanek

Haase v. Roddick

Tipsarevic v. Tursunov

Seppi v. Gasquet

Second Quadrant

Murray faces a far more difficult bracket than the Serb, with some up-and-comers as well as some established Top Ten players. Look for the Brit to make it through, but with some draining and challenging matches along the way

Potential Challenges

 -Ryan Harrison, an up-and-coming American player who has shown that he has the game to give even top players some trouble. However, he's still too young to do major damage in the draw.

-Ernests Gulbis, who was making his way up the draw at a steady pace a couple years back but hasn't done anything since. If he can find his penetrating groundstrokes and big game, he might be able to do something, considering his first two matches are winnable.

-Thomaz Bellucci, who has a powerful game but hasn't produced any spectacular Grand Slam results. He could give Monfils trouble in the second round, though.

-Gilles Simon, who has great foot speed and endless consistency, but less so than Murray. Look for him to make the third or fourth round, but then to lose to somebody who has a big enough game to overpower him.

-Kei Nishikori, who is now the highest ranked Japanese player to ever have played the game. He is only getting better, and this could possibly be a breakthrough tournament for him if the draw opens up right. Look for him to be a threat.

-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who always plays well at this tournament and has been looking better than ever. A serious dark horse

Best First Round Matches

Murray v. Harrison

Llordra v. Gulbis

Istomin v. Tsonga

Third Quadrant

Aside from Del Potro, Federer has what may be the easiest quadrant of the Big Four. Mardy Fish has looked precarious lately, and while there are some quality players, they usually have given the Swiss little to no trouble. Look for him to make it through with relative ease.

Potential Threats

 -Mardy Fish, who had a breakthrough year in 2011 but is looking fragile going into the event. Don't expect too much from him.

-Phillip Kohlschreiber, who has one of the most dangerous and beautiful backhands in the game. He doesn't step up at the majors, but he may have one or two good matches in him.

-Del Potro, who is by far the most dangerous in this section. Federer owned him at this event back in 2009, but I'm sure we all remember the revenge Juan Martin took at Flushing Meadows. He and Fed may well have a classic battle.

-Fernando Verdasco, who made an incredible run to the semifinals in '09 and had an epic battle with fellow Spaniard Nadal before succumbing in five. He's not the same player anymore, though, so don't look for him to do much damage.

-Ivo Karlovic, who is the man that nobody wants to play. He's getting old, though, so he's not as dangerous as he once was.

-Bernard Tomic, who had a breakthrough year in 2011 and is looking more and more like a threat. A serious dark horse.

Best First Round Matches

Fish v. Muller

Kohlschreiber v. Monaco

Verdasco v. Tomic

Melzer v. Karlovic

Fourth Quadrant

Considering that Nadal's shoulder still isn't 100 percent, this is not the draw that he was looking for. Filled with dangerous hard court players, it's going to be difficult for the Spaniard to navigate. Look for him to maybe get eliminated early this year, unless he can recover and find his hard court form.

Potential Threats

-Tomas Berdych, who played a stellar end of the year and is looking back in form. As such, he's a serious threat.

-Marcos Baghdatis, who made a surprise run to the final in 2006 and has weapons to make any great player tremble. He's getting a bit old but still could do some damage.

-Grigor Dimitrov, who has been hailed as the next Federer. He's still adjusting to the major leagues, so don't expect this to be his breakthrough slam

-John Isner, who has the best serve on tour. Nadal fans, pray that he gets eliminated early.

-David Nalbandian, who is among the best players never to have won a slam. He's older and out of shape now, though, so he probably won't do too much.

-Nikolay Davydenko, who could practically be defined in the exact same way as Nalbandian.

Best First Round Matches

Baghdatis v. Becker

Nieminen v. Nalbandian