Ranking Non-NFL Playoff Teams Most Likely to Make Super Bowl Next Season

The last team to make the Super Bowl one year after missing the playoffs? The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals.

The last team to win the Super Bowl one year after failing to make the postseason? The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On the brink of Super Bowl LIX, let's rank the non-playoff teams from 2024 with the best shot at pulling off that feat next year.

Salary-cap information via Spotrac

No Chance in Hell

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 29: Anthony Richardson #5 of the Indianapolis Colts looks on during the second quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 29, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

18. Tennessee Titans: There's a damn good chance they'll have a rookie quarterback, and a rookie quarterback has never started a Super Bowl. One isn't about to buck that trend with a team that won three games in 2024.

17. Cleveland Browns: There's a damn good chance they'll have a rookie quarterback, and a rookie quarterback has never started a Super Bowl. One isn't about to buck that trend with a team that won three games in 2024.

16. New York Giants: There's a damn good chance they'll have a rookie quarterback, and a rookie quarterback has never started a Super Bowl. One isn't about to buck that trend with a team that won three games in 2024.

15. Las Vegas Raiders: Bottom eight on both offense and defense in 2024, and no obvious solution at quarterback. Forget it, even if they have plenty of money to spend.

14. Indianapolis Colts: They've managed to go 17-17 the last two years, but that still feels like a ceiling and quarterback Anthony Richardson has a long way to go. Even if they do everything right this offseason, this is a one-and-done playoff team at best.

13. New Orleans Saints: Same with these guys. Even if they don't finally commit to a full rebuild, there's only so much an aging Derek Carr can do with depleted talent on both sides of the ball.

12. Carolina Panthers: I guess you never know what Bryce Young might be capable of in Year 3, but this was still the worst defense in the NFL in '24 and they're not exactly loaded with draft capital or salary-cap room.

11. New England Patriots: At least they have a promising sophomore quarterback. Still, the rebuild will require at least another year for a team that ranked in the bottom 12 on both sides of the ball in 2024.

Extreme Long Shots

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - JANUARY 05: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the New York Jets in action against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on January 05, 2025 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

10. Seattle Seahawks: I think they're a slightly above-average team with a slightly above-average quarterback but limited draft capital and no cap space. It would take something shocking from Geno Smith, and then some.

9. Atlanta Falcons: They're handcuffed by the salary cap thanks in part to that horrible Kirk Cousins deal, and Michael Penix Jr. isn't likely ready to become elite.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: The presence of Trevor Lawrence and decent overall roster talent has them in the middle of the pack, even if this doesn't remotely feel like a competitive team on either side of the ball.

7. New York Jets: Despite being consistently uncompetitive throughout the 2024 season, the presence of Aaron Rodgers and decent defensive talent keeps them in the long-shot box.

6. Arizona Cardinals: They score a bunch of extra points here because Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. absolutely have the talent, and the defense made strides in '24. They also have plenty of money to spend. It's not impossible.

There's a Path

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ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 09: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after scoring a touchdown with teammate Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown (30) against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL football game at AT&T Stadium on December 9, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

5. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams would need to take a big step forward, but that's entirely possible considering his talent and support. The trajectory is promising here, and let's not forget they have three top-45 picks and more salary-cap space than all but four teams.

4. Miami Dolphins: They might be headed in the opposite direction of Chicago, but Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill remain on a fairly talented roster. This was also a top-10 scoring defense in 2024. We'll see if they can hold it together and stay healthy and focused in '25.

3. Dallas Cowboys: A healthy Dak Prescott gives them a chance, and it's possible they'll be rejuvenated at the outset of the post-Mike McCarthy era. When healthy, they're way better than their 7-10 2024 record would seem to indicate.

2. San Francisco 49ers: They were in the Super Bowl a year ago, and then injuries blew up their 2024 campaign. That seemed like an aberration, which is why only five teams have better Super Bowl 60 odds than the Niners.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: The defense needs work, but I think Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase actually give them a slightly higher ceiling than the 49ers. They're due for a huge bounce-back in 2025.