2025 NBA Draft: Surprise Risers Teams Need to Be Watching
Heading into Christmas break, the 2025 NBA draft discussion includes new names and others who've changed scouts' opinions.
There was already hype around the incoming freshmen class that features Duke's Cooper Flagg and Rutgers' Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. It's looking even deeper now after six weeks, as a handful of unexpected prospects have entered the one-and-done discussion with surprisingly effective execution and impact.
As always, we've also seen breakout upperclassmen who've either improved behind closed doors during the offseason or feel more comfortable after transferring schools.
These are the players who've moved the needle the most through 10-15 games.
Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma PG
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Updated projected draft range: Nos. 3-10
With new attention around Jeremiah Fears' early production, explosive creation highlights and 10-0 start, he helped validate and add to the hype with 30 points and a game-winning four-play play to beat Michigan last Wednesday.
His shotmaking won the Sooners that game, but on the whole, his advantage creation has stood out the most so far. The eye test detects a level of ball-handling quickness and burst for Fears to continue getting to his spots at the next level. Defenders almost look like they have no chance of staying in front of him in the open floor or ball-screen situations. His hesitation and dribble moves are violently fast and abrupt.
NBA teams should be drawn to his ability to apply pressure with his transition speed, jets for turning the corner, handle to change direction and footwork working in traffic.
He's complementing that blow-by burst with floater touch, encouraging pull-up shooting ability and enough vision and passing skill to leverage his gravity into effective playmaking.
Naturally, a freshman with a 31.8 percentage usage has been turnover prone, and his three-point range isn't a strength yet. But Fears is also one of college basketball's youngest prospects who'll still be 18 years old on Day 1 of NBA training camp.
Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph's PF
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Updated draft range: Late first round to mid-second round
Rasheer Fleming has now scored 25 points or more in three of four games. And though it's come against underwhelming competition, he previously produced and impressed against Texas, Texas Tech and Villanova.
He's the only player in the country with at least 20 threes and 20 dunks. When you factor in his defensive playmaking, he's on track to join a short list of players (which most recently includes Zion Williamson and Tari Eason) who have delivered a unique rate of easy baskets, shotmaking, blocks and steals.
At 6'9", 240 pounds, his physical profile instantly stands out. A fluid, rhythm shooting stroke helps his NBA outlook pop even more, with Fleming now at 39.6 percent on 4.4 three-point attempts per game.
He can be reliant on using his strength too often, specifically attacking through contact on closeouts or bullying smaller defenders around the block. NBA teams shouldn't expect Fleming to offer much creation or passing, which may affect their ability to see upside.
However, there should be a role in the league for a physical big that finishes, offensive rebounds, stretches the floor and disrupts defensively. Fleming has hit NBA radars early this season, although the bar for consistency will be higher in the A-10.
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois PG
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Updated projected draft range: Nos. 3-10
Kasparas Jakucionis' arrow was already pointing up after this summer's European Championships, but this early level of impact and effectiveness at Illinois has exceeded most expectations.
He's now scored 20 or more points in six consecutive games while operating with a professional sense of poise. Illinois' most recent win against Missouri came after the freshman sealed the game with step-back three and fallaway from the post.
Limited athleticism hasn't restricted his shot-creating ability. He's demonstrated footwork and unteachable timing and rhythm separating into drives and step-backs. A lack of explosion can hurt him around the rim, but he's still executing crafty, improvised finishes, while his off-the-dribble shooting (44.0 percent) continues be a weapon.
Jakucionis has taken on a heavy scoring load early, though his playmaking has always been a signature strength. He clearly has a high passing IQ with advantageous 6'6" size for a ball-handler, though he can also be too casual and turnover prone.
Regardless, between the positional size, the controlled command/pacing for creation, tough shotmaking, playmaking and maturity—which have shown up against a tough strength of schedule—Jakucionis is starting to look like one of the top picks/prospects for the 2025 draft.
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee SG
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Updated projected draft range: Second round
Chaz Lanier leads the nation's No. 1 team in scoring, an achievement that's naturally led to more attention than he ever received last year at North Florida.
He was an elite shooter last year in terms of accuracy (44.0 percent 3PT), volume (3.3 3PTM) and diversity (43.1 percent pull-ups, 42.9 percent off screens). And so far, he's delivering similar results with Tennessee, although the Volunteers have faced just one ranked opponent (Baylor, 26 points).
Realistically, the pitch for Lanier is strictly about shotmaking, as he's not going to offer plus playmaking or defense. But the 23-year-old has developed a highly advanced perimeter game with his pull-up and range, and there are sure to be second-round teams interested in adding some additional firepower.
Xaivian Lee, Princeton PG
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Updated projected draft range: Second round
After triple-doubling in a road win earlier in the month at Saint Joseph's, Xaivian Lee powered Princeton past Rutgers over the weekend with 22 points, 11 assists and six boards.
He's become one of the nation's most creative guards with his ball-handling and constant change of speed/direction. Even with questions about his shooting consistency or athleticism/frame in traffic, they shouldn't negate his ability to continue putting pressure on the defense with speed and relentless shiftiness that creates gravity and playmaking opportunities.
While he's not going to offer much off the ball, NBA teams can at least start to picture a change-of-pace guard who can set up teammates. The fact that he's shooting 41.1 percent on pull-ups is also an encouraging sign that could help Lee score and offset the struggles he's likely to have separating and finishing at the rim.
Asa Newell, Georgia PF/C
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Updated projected draft range: Late lottery-mid-first round
Playing 26.3 minutes per game as a freshman, Asa Newell is tied for the nation's lead in dunks. Timing and motor have helped the 6'11", 220-pound big optimize every inch of size and length. Even if the heavy majority of his baskets are coming off teammates' creativity, Newell clearly has a knack for putting himself in the right spots to pick up easy baskets off the catch and second-chance opportunities.
But now he's starting make jump shots. He shot over 40.0 percent from three at Montverde Academy, and while we're still talking about a small sample size of recent accuracy at Georgia, his high school tape, visible confidence and comfort level suggest that Newell can continue to be a pick-and-pop, catch-and-shoot threat.
There's also been a lot to like about Newell's defense, particularly how he covers ground, sticks with ball-handlers on switches and gets out to contest shots away from the basket. He'll have to clean up some footwork, but overall, opponents are shooting 26.3 percent against his closeouts.
Labaron Philon, Alabama PG
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Updated draft range: Late-lottery to late-first round
Labaron Philon has stood out more with efficiency, impact and adaptability as opposed to flash or athleticism.
Sharing the ball with All-American senior Marks Sears, the freshman is averaging an efficient 11.7 points and 3.8 assists (on low usage) by patiently/wisely picking the right spots to attack, effectively using body control and touch and making sound passing reads.
He's shooting 64.7 percent around the basket without bulk or explosion, and though he'd benefit greatly from improving his pull-up, he's compensated with one of the softest, most controlled floaters (11-of-14) in the class.
With the ball, Philon has an excellent feel for knowing when defenders are in vulnerable stances or off-balance positions. He's been excellent in transition taking advantage of back-pedaling defenders.
The presence of Sears has taken away playmaking chances, but Philon has looked like a natural point guard when given opportunities to make passing reads and see teammates off ball screens and penetration.
His IQ also pops on defense, where he's averaging 1.3 steals by anticipating moves and jumping lanes.
A 177-pound frame and low three-point volume may make it difficult for NBA teams to detect enticing upside. But Philon, whose rotation-leading BPM isn't surprising based on his efficiency and decision-making, comes off as an easy-fit guard with some unteachable feel and intangibles.
Derik Queen, Maryland PF/C
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Updated projected draft range: Mid-to-late first round
Derik Queen is producing his way into the first-round discussion with 16.8 points, 8.3 boards and 2.3 assists. His body type, movement and methods for scoring remain polarizing, but his effectiveness and skill level are bound to sway some evaluators to look past questions about athleticism, shooting and defense.
He leads all freshmen in box plus-minus. His combination of 246 pounds and soft hands has translated to high-percentage finishes off seal-offs, dunker's-spot catches and offensive rebounds. But five of his dunks have been off self-created drives, and the ability to face up and attack has been a pleasantly surprising development.
Queen's passing IQ has always stood out from his days at Montverde Academy. His range has not, although he's shown confidence at Maryland with 32 jump-shot attempts and a 78.2 free-throw percentage.
We've seen mixed results on defense, with the positives highlighting active hands and good use of his tools, while the lowlights illuminate concerns over his reactions, foot speed and rim protection.
He'll also turn 20 years old next week, while a handful of the top freshmen won't turn 19 until near or after the draft.
But Queen has certainly made an impression on scouts, and it does seem possible teams could detect underrated upside tied to his blossoming shot-creation, passing and potential to keep improving his shotmaking.
Maxime Raynaud, Stanford PF/C
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Updated projected draft range: Second round
More usage may have unlocked shooting confidence in Maxime Raynaud. At 7'1", he's hit 21 threes (38.2 percent) after making 22 all of last season.
But he's also been highly effective inside, using his size, footwork and touch around the post while bringing in 11.8 rebounds a game.
Scouts will rightfully dock Raynaud for his defensive projection to the NBA. Future coaches at the next level may be resistant to giving regular minutes to a big who offers minimal rim protection or switchability.
But Raynaud's offensive skill level has gotten sharper each season, and now scouts can see a scoring prospect who can space the floor and create high-percentage looks for himself around the key.
Jase Richardson, Michigan State SG
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Updated projected draft range: 2025 late-first to second round/2026 first round
Jase Richardson is earning fans with the same, efficient, low-usage offense that was key for Columbus High School. Understandably, there wasn't one-and-done hype coming in around a 6'3" guard who played mostly off the ball alongside the highly-touted Boozer brothers last year.
He's opened scouts' minds so far. Richardson's "knows how to play" label has carried over to Michigan State. He's second among freshmen in box plus-minus. While he hasn't flashed too much creativity, he's still averaging 9.9 points on just 5.6 shot attempts in only 21.2 minutes. He's making plays within the flow of the Spartans' offense. Shooting 65.0 percent inside the arc, 12-of-22 from three and 84.0 percent from the free-throw line with 22 assists to six turnovers, Richardson is consistently making the right reads to generate high-percentage opportunities.
Despite lacking athleticism to explode above the rim, he's made 17-of-21 attempts around the basket, demonstrating advanced footwork to find space, improvised finishing ability, touch shots and the ability to take contact.
Around the perimeter, he's been equally effective shooting off the catch or dribble.
Richardson hasn't seen many ball screens to work on or showcase his playmaking. And at his size, scouts will be hopeful that he offers secondary ball-handling. Depending on if his role expands during conference play, Richardson may be able to maximize his draft stock during a second season in college, though it's possible there will be enough interest in his shotmaking, decision-making, efficiency and adaptability for the freshman to go in the first round this upcoming June.
Danny Wolf, Michigan PF/C
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Updated projected draft range: Second round
Mostly a spot-up and post-up big at Yale, Danny Wolf is now building a draft case at Michigan by excelling in a ball-handling and playmaking role.
The majority of Wolf's offensive plays (18.7 percent) this year have been in ball-screen situations. He's surprised most with his effectiveness using his handle and vision from the point of attack. And while NBA teams aren't going to use Wolf the same way, this new role has illuminated and unlocked appealing versatility for a 7-footer.
He's recorded five assists in four of his last five games. But he's also shown he can freeze defenders with various dribble moves and drive through the lane for self-created layups.
Wolf will still have a tough time generating first-round interest if he continues to struggle from three. He does look out of range from behind the arc at times, though he has made 45 career threes in 65 games. Just becoming a threat could be enough to justify NBA minutes if he's also useful for attacking, passing and offensive rebounding.
Defensively, Wolf isn't going to change games with rim protection, but he leads Michigan in DBPM, and his mobility and IQ at his size could be seen as pluses for switching and guarding in space.
Worth Monitoring
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Miles Byrd, San Diego State, SG/SF
Last year's defensive playmaking rates look valid now that he's repeating them in a much larger role. He's also shooting 38.8 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts per game and consistently delivering advanced-level assists. While teams aren't likely to picture a prospect who'll offer self-creation or significant rim pressure, an appealing mix of 6'7" size, shotmaking, passing and defense make Byrd worth tracking.
Nique Clifford, Colorado State, SF/PF
Clifford has slowed down as of late, though his No. 1 option role doesn't match his skill set. Versatility makes him intriguing for the next level. At 6'6" with a solid frame and plus athletic ability, he's averaging 10.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists. And this year with the extra usage, he's developing into an effective ball-screen playmaker with driving, pull-up shooting (46.5 percent) and passing ability.
Ian Jackson, North Carolina, SG
Jackson just helped propel North Carolina past UCLA with his transition finishing, rim pressure and shotmaking. The lack of playmaking (seven total assists) is worth flagging for a 6'4" prospect, though his role for the next level would clearly be more in line with a scoring specialist's.
Darrion Williams, Texas Tech, SG/SF
A career 40.2 percent three-point shooter, Williams is also now averaging 5.2 assists this year. The combination of shotmaking and passing creates a connector package skill set that diminishes some of the need for athleticism. He's impressed this year by consistently getting teammates open looks, despite the fact he's only received 23 ball screens through 11 games
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