MLB Rumors: Luis Severino Likely to Decline Mets' $21M Qualifying Offer Amid 2024 FA

Coming off a strong rebound season for the New York Mets in 2024, Luis Severino is banking on a healthy free-agent market rather than accepting the qualifying offer.

Per The Athletic's Will Sammon, Severino is unlikely to accept the one-year tender worth $21.05 million from the Mets before the deadline to do so passes at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

The Mets were the only team that issued more than one qualifying offer this year, extending it to Severino, Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea.

Severino would seem to be the most likely of that trio to accept it given his long injury history, but this offseason might also be his last best chance to secure a lucrative multiyear deal.

The two-time All-Star signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets in December 2023. He was coming off the worst season of his career with a 6.65 ERA in 19 appearances for the New York Yankees.

In five seasons from 2019 to '23, Severino only appeared in 45 games due to a series of injuries. He missed all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His ERA during that five-year run was 4.47.

Severino turned out to be a big addition for the Mets. The right-hander made 31 starts, led the team with 182 innings and posted a 3.91 ERA. He was effective in three playoff starts, finishing with a 3.24 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

There are reasons to be concerned that Severino might not be as effective going forward. His strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings was tied with 2023 for the worst of his career. He ranked in the 34th percentile in strikeout percentage and 21st percentile in whiff rate.

MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a three-year, $51 million deal for Severino. A contract of that value would certainly make his decision not to accept the qualifying offer look smart, but recent history has shown the market for non-star-level players can be slow moving.