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With a lockout expected to begin on December 2, the MLB portion of this year's Winter Meetings is expected to be canceled. That could explain why the GM Meetings were buzzier than usual.
As one would expect under the circumstances, a general sense of uncertainty hung in the air at the Aria Resort & Casino in Las Vegas. Barring a last-minute (and highly unlikely) resolution on a new CBA, nobody knows what baseball's post-lockout economic environment is going to look like.
"The possibility of having a different economic system, you take that into consideration," said San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. "But it's really hard to predict what's going to happen, what the exact system is going to be or when it comes in."
Yet since rumors were flying and some deals did indeed go down, we ultimately know more about the offseason market than we did before the meetings began on Monday. That's especially true of the free-agent market.
Let's get into eight takeaways from the GM Meetings.
It Could Be a Cool Market, At Least for Relievers
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The free-agent market hasn't really started moving yet, so reports of strong demand should still be taken with a grain of salt.
But in the words of one agent to Jon Heyman of the New York Post: "It's ugly."
The first major deal of the winter doesn't exactly undercut that notion. After rejecting a one-year, $10 million option to stay with the Cincinnati Reds in 2027, right-handed reliever Emilio Pagรกnย has reportedly agreed a one-year, $11 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, pending a physical.
A single guaranteed year was less than some experts expected for Pagรกn. The folks at MLB Trade Rumors, for example, had the 35-year-old down for $22 million over two years.
If there's a reason for other free agents to avoid panicking, it concerns the nature of Pagรกn's corner of the market. The book on the free agent market as a whole is that good players are in short supply. The relief market, however, is quite strong, and thus prone to the supply outpacing the demand.
Still, if this year's market does indeed end up being a money-making dud for players, you heard it here first: Pagรกnย was Patient Zero.
Adrian Morejon's Free Agency Is Already Surprising
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Adrian Morejon has come into free agency off a terrific three-year run with the San Diego Padres, making 60-plus appearances and posting an ERA in the 2.00s each year. Per his 131 Pitching+ score, he was the top overall reliever of 2026.
Both MLB Trade Rumors and B/R's Tim Kelly project an $80 million contract for the 27-year-old lefty. That would put him among the highest-paid relievers in history, so the only way his earning power can go higher is if he decides he wants to start.
According to Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic, there are teams that are interested in Morejon as a starter. His preference, however, is to remain a reliever. Unless someone makes him an offer he can't refuse, that could be that as far as that storyline goes.
If that's mildly surprising, then even more surprising is the entry of the Miami Marlins into the Morejon sweepstakes. They haven't gone above $53 million for a free agent in the Bruce Sherman era, yet Kevin Barral of Fish on First reports they're interested in Morejon nonetheless.
Whether they'll end up with Morejon or even shift his market in any way remains to be seen. Either way, it's one of those things that's a little too interesting to ignore.
The Seattle Mariners Won't Be Running It Back
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The Mariners were the most disappointing team in the American League this year, going from a preseason World Series forecast to just 86 wins.
It's no real surprise that they're trying to put as much distance between themselves and this season as possible. To replace Dan Wilson, they basically tabbed his personal Wario to take over the manager's chair in the person of Jason Kanzler. And now, it seems he'll have a new-look roster to play with.
With his price tag likely to fall in the $100-150 million range, Randy Arozarena has never been likely to return to Seattle. And per Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, the Mariners don't even intend to pursue him.
Then there's the surprising part: According to Jude, longtime shortstop J.P. Crawford has also been informed that the team is moving on. It's a curious choice just in the abstract, and even more so in context. The Mariners are known to be looking for a left-side infielder to pair with Colt Emerson.
The key is president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto's insistence that the Mariners get better defensively. Yet even if Arozarena (-5) and Crawford (-13) were two main offenders for a defense that finished with -58 Outs Above Average, addition by subtraction can't be the answer here.
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The Chicago Cubs Have Recommitted to a Tired Bit
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Tarik Skubal and the Cubs. The Cubs and Tarik Skubal. Either way, it has a nice ring to it.
It's too bad that it isn't likely to happen. According to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Cubs "appear unlikely" to pursue the two-time Cy Young Award-winning lefty.
This would seem to undercut an earlier report from ESPN's Jeff Passan about the Cubs "badly" wanting Skubal, but not necessarily. A team wanting a guy is one thing. A team being willing to pay as much as $400 million for this guy in particular? That's something else.
Despite major commitments to Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson, the Cubs under Jed Hoyer have generally stopped short of pursuing the market's most expensive superstars. In this case, that means bypassing by far the best starting pitcher on the market even if he's the best possible fix for a rotation that ranked 28th in rWAR this year.
Per Sharma, the Cubs just aren't interested in spending like the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets. And in all fairness, the Cubs did only rankโฆ[checks notes]โฆ third in MLB with $599 million in revenue for 2025, according to Forbes.
The Philadelphia Phillies Are Recommitting to the Only Bit They Have
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If there's an anti-Cubs operation in MLB, it has to be the Phillies. If a high-priced free agent is available to help them fill a need, they're going to be interested.
And so it goes. According to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, the Phillies have "expressed interest" in the top outfielders on the market: Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki and Teruaki Sato.
You'll get no argument from us that the Phillies are a fine fit for Arozarena. Suzuki fits just as well, though that's partially because he and Arozarena are a Rorschach test for teams in need of a righty-hitting outfielder. Both are coming off their age-31 season and offer above-average bats with various hints of downside.
Sato is different. He's only 27 years old, and could thus bring valuable youth to a lineup that is just way too old. And after hitting 79 home runs in Japan across the last two seasons, he'd fit right in with the power-first vibe fueled by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Of course, Sato's defensive limitations and boom-or-bust offensive potential make him less of a fit for the Phillies. But whether it's him, Arozarena or Suzuki, they're in so deep on a free agent-fueled contention model that they might as well keep trying to throw money at their problems.
The San Diego Padres' New Owners Are Sending the Right Signals
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Josรฉ E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones officially took control of the Padres in August, and something Jones said on August 24 still resonates.
"We are all in; it's not lip service," she said. "We are absolutely committed to this organization and we are absolutely overjoyed."
And now, here come the rumors to back it up. According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Padres are interested in Tarik Skubal. Dennis Lin of The Athletic also has them in on this market's top Japan-born stars: Seiya Suzuki, Teruaki Sato and Shota Imanaga.
These names map onto the Padres' needs, which are especially prevalent in a rotation that is lacking Michael King (free agency) and Yu Darvish (who knows?). A bat is less of a need, but certainly a strong want. Manny Machado is not getting younger or more productive.
As for the finances, well, the Padres are already projected to spend just $4 million less in 2027 than they did in 2026. That these rumors exist tells us one of two things: Feliciano and Jones understand the value of good optics, or they really are that "all in."
The New York Mets Have Plenty of Competition for Tarik Skubal
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If the Cubs were willing to put more of their ample revenue into their payroll, they'd perhaps be the favorites to land Tarik Skubal. But since they're not, all signs point toward the Mets, right?
It does seem that way, and you can take that from Jon Heyman of the New York Post as well. The Mets badly need starting pitching, and Steve Cohen's pockets go more than deep enough to afford Skubal's asking price.
They are not, however, running unopposed. According to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, the Mets are just one of six teams set to meet with Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras.
The Padres are one. The incumbent Dodgers are another, and they may have an ace card. Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Dodgers prefer to re-sign Skubal on a short-term deal. It would presumably have to mimic the four-year, $240 million pact they made with Kyle Tucker, in which the shorter length is balanced against a record average annual value.
According to Heyman, the Toronto Blue Jays are also in on Skubal. Lest anyone forget their financial muscle, they spent over $700 million on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dylan Cease in the space of just a few months in 2025.
The New York Yankees Are Lying Low in Free Agencyโฆ For Now
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As for that other New York team, things are a little weird around the Yankees right now.
There's a brain drain going on with their coaching staff, which has lost Tanner Swanson, James Rowson and Brad Ausmus to roles with other teams. And whereas Yankees fans may have been hoping for buzz on free agents like Tarik Skubal or Teruaki Sato, the most prominent name linked to the team isโฆ Alec Bohm?
Jon Heyman of the New York Post had that report on Wednesday, with the idea being that Bohm could be a solution for a third base spot that produced only 0.2 rWAR in 2026. Bohm could either platoon with Ryan McMahon, or take over as the starter if the Yankees trade the latter.
If anything, the more notable Yankees storyline to come out of Las Vegas concerned all the defense that GM Brian Cashman had to play on Tuesday. Against criticism of the team's fundamentals. Against Jorge Posada's accusations of not feeling wanted. Against bad vibes in general, really.
Since the Yankees could have as much as $43 million to add to their 2027 payroll, this feels like a low point that won't last. As a starting point for their offseason, though, it calls the old Joe Girardi line to mind: It's not what you want.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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.jpg?w=2560 "Daniel Jones 'Not Happy' With Colts Trades")
