NFL Wild Card Predictions 2012: New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

The New Orleans Saints will host the Detroit Lions this Saturday at 8 p.m. Needless to say, this is going to be one helluva football game. Saturday will be the first time that two quarterbacks who threw for over 5,000 yards in a season will face each other. So, is it going to be a shootout?

The over/under on this game is 59 points. If I had to put money on this game—legally, of course—I'd take the under. Here's why:

If you remember Week 13, the Saints beat the Lions 31-17. That game didn't cover the over, trust me I know, and this happened with the Lions' Louis Delmas and secondary in shambles and Ndamukong Suh suspended.

With Suh back, he, along with Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch can provide enough pressure to keep seven defenders back in coverage. A healthy Lions pass defense will probably slow Drew Brees down. It's going to be a lower scoring game than most people and Vegas think.

A few notes to consider:

• The Lions have the highest percentage in the NFL in using the shotgun formation, and Calvin Johnson was the third-most targeted receiver in the league. He is a threat in the red zone and he can also stretch out the field as a deep threat.

But

• The Saints are a pressure-based defense with their complex blitz packages and combination coverages. In Week 13, the Lions tried to slow the Saints' blitz packages with screens and quick throws. It worked, but at the same time it slowed down their own offense, limiting their ability to make big plays.

• The Lions mostly played a conservative defense against Drew Brees, not really blitzing him much. For the most part, the Lions took away the big play, save for the Meachem 38-yard touchdown. They can be more effective at applying pressure to Brees this time around with Suh back.

I know both Brees and the Saints' terrifying athletes at receiver, along with Matt Stafford and Megatron, will definitely be something to look for. But, if the pass game stalls like I think it will, then look for:

• The Saints' run-game. The Saints usually line up in the I Formation and pound the ball. Their running backs combined for 2,127 yards.

• The Lions had some success against the Saints with Kevin Smith in the game in Week 13. Smith has been averaging 4.9 yards per carry and if he stays healthy throughout Saturday night, he can be an important factor in the game.

Vegas has the line at Saints -10.5. I expect this game to be a lot closer than it was during the regular season. Saints will top the Lions, but they will not cover.

Prediction: Saints 27, Lions 24.