Roger Federer Pulls out of Qatar, so Is Australian Open 2012 in Doubt?

Michael Casey of the Associated Press is reporting that Roger Federer is withdrawing from his semifinal match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga because of an issue with his back. 

This is a significant injury because the Australian Open is only nine days away. Still, according to Casey, the withdrawal comes because Federer doesn't want to risk the Australian Open and expects to be good to go for the season's first Grand Slam. 

There are a few ways to look at this. To answer the original question, is the Australian Open in doubt? If Federer is saying that he's expecting to play, then there's no real reason to disbelieve him. But that's only part of the dilemma. 

The other question is, how will he do in the Australian Open? I wouldn't put money on him to pull out a win. These are the kind of injuries that take a while to completely heal from. 

In addition to that, remember that Federer completed the 2011 season without winning a single Grand Slam championship. Actually, he hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2010 event. For Federer, that kind of drought is an eternity. 

As was reported by the Associated Press, Rafael Nadal is facing similar issues. Nadal will play in the Australian Open, but will take a long time off after that to heal an injury. That opens the door for other players to win. Federer would normally be on that list, but it's hard to imagine this injury not keeping him from the title. 

It should be clear that there's still no reason to predict an early exit from Federer. While he's been overtaken by both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, Federer is still one of the game's top players. The early rounds won't be any problem.

But for him to win Grand Slams, he's going to need to be at full health. There can't be anything looming over him in the later rounds. This back injury is looming, even if it doesn't show in early round play. 

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