Bold Predictions for Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 NBA Finals Matchup
The Boston Celtics survived a late Dallas Mavericks rally for a second consecutive game on Thursday, winning 106-99 and moving to a 3-0 lead in 2024 NBA Finals.
Now, they have a chance to become just the 10th team in NBA history to sweep through the last series of the year. And they'll get that shot at history in Friday's Game 4.
Before they get there, let's talk about how the game will play out through some bold predictions.
Jayson Tatum Will Pass Kobe Bryant for Most Playoff Points Before Turning 27
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Entering Game 4, Jayson Tatum has 2,665 career playoff points. That's already good for 40th all-time, and it's only 29 behind Kobe Bryant for the most ever scored before a player turned 27.
On Friday, he's going to break out of his series-long shooting slump and exceed that mark. He's simply too good to shoot as poorly as he has for four consecutive games.
Things already started to turn for him a bit in Game 3, when he had 31 points, but he was still just 11-of-26 from the field. For the series, he's 15-of-37 (40.5 percent) on twos and 8-of-27 (29.6 percent) from deep.
Both percentages are well shy of his career playoff marks of 49.4 and 34.8. And a regression to the mean could spell trouble for the Mavs.
Luka Dončić's Complaints Will Subside
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It's been a constant theme throughout this postseason. Luka Dončić simply cannot seem to help himself. In most of the Mavericks games, their superstar complains about a call on seemingly every other possession. Honestly, "complain" is probably a mild description.
Luka will throw his arms up in the air, scream at officials, stomp his feet or otherwise throw tantrums that literally take him out of the game for a moment, sometimes in costly ways.
According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, Mavericks coaches have "begged" and "pleaded" with him to stop. In at least one game, that seemed to work.
Luka stayed pretty levelheaded in Game 5 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, went for 31 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds and credited his approach after the contest.
"I just tried to focus on basketball," Dončić told TNT's Jared Greenberg. "Sometimes I forget this is the thing I love."
Well, he seems to have forgotten again. And Dallas' best chance at staving off elimination in Game 4 requires that he remember again.
Consider this wishful thinking that he does.
Celtics Will Shoot 40 Percent from Three
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That may not be enough, though. Boston is shooting just 33.9 percent from deep in this series, and that was after a decent 37 percent showing in Game 3.
This regular season, they were first in threes per game at 16.5, and second in three-point percentage at 38.8.
This regular and postseason, they've had a whopping 41 games with at least 10 three-point attempts and a 40-plus three-point percentage, but they've yet to hit both of those benchmarks in a game in this series.
That'll happen in Game 4 and should move Boston to 41-1 in such contests.
Mavericks Will Get Swept
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If Boston's deep shooting comes alive, of course, that means the wrong end of a sweep for the Mavericks.
They came into this series with the best individual player in Luka. There seemed to at least be a chance that they'd have the best duo, but Kyrie Irving didn't have an above-average box plus/minus till Game 3.
With him struggling to hit shots in Boston and Luka sometimes distracted by his issues with officials, there was a lot on the plate for Dallas' supporting cast. It's just not good enough to overcome the Celtics' depth.
In the regular season, according to various catch-all metrics from around the internet, Boston had four top 40-50 players. It had eight in the top 100-110 range.
The Celtics are well-rounded, versatile and played like a juggernaut from opening night through the end of the conference finals. The Mavericks were in play-in range for much of the season, got hot after the trade deadline and finished fifth in the West. They were 14 wins shy of Boston's regular-season total.
By the time this series is over—and this slide will serve as a prediction that that happens on Friday—we'll likely look back on the 2024 Finals and wonder how so many overthought this matchup to the degree they did.
Jaylen Brown Will Win Finals MVP
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Jaylen Brown signed the richest contract in NBA history this past summer. Some wondered if he would live up to the billing. When he failed to make an All-NBA team after the regular season, those takes crept up again.
But here we are now, on the verge of Boston finishing the playoffs 16-2. Brown already has the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. And against Dallas, he leads the Celtics in scoring at 24.3 points.
He's also averaging 6.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocks, while leading the entire series in average game score ("...a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game").
At this point, it'll take a massive game from Tatum or Jrue Holiday, and probably a clunker from Brown, to deny the highest-paid player in NBA history the 2024 Finals MVP.
And at that point, it'll never make sense to nitpick that contract again.
