Buying or Selling Red Sox's Biggest Breakout Players in 2024 Season
The Boston Red Sox are off to a better-than-expected start this season thanks in large part to the performance of their starting rotation, which looked like a potential weakness when the season began.
Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck have been two of the most effective pitchers in baseball slotted atop the Red Sox rotation, while catcher Connor Wong and rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu have provided a nice boost offensively.
But are those strong starts for real?
Ahead, we have given our take on whether to buy or sell those early performances based on track records and advanced metrics.
OF Wilyer Abreu
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Wilyer Abreu made his MLB debut on Aug. 22 last season and hit .316/.388/.474 with six doubles, two home runs and 14 RBI in 85 plate appearances down the stretch.
The Red Sox saw enough in that performance to leave him with a relatively clear path to playing time in right field to open the year, and he has seized the opportunity by continuing to impress at the plate, batting .316/.391/.526 for a 155 OPS+ with 11 extra-base hits and 12 RBI in 24 games.
With Trevor Story and Triston Casas both injured, he has been hitting cleanup recently, and so far he has been one of baseball's most productive rookies.
His strong marks in average exit velocity (76th percentile), hard-hit rate (68th percentile) and an 11.5 percent walk rate make it reasonable to think he can be an above-average contributor at the plate all season, even if he does regress a bit from his current numbers.
Buy or Sell: Buy
RHPs Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck
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The Red Sox lead the majors with a 2.00 ERA from their starting rotation, and that represents a massive improvement over a year ago when they checked in 22nd in the majors in that category with a 4.68 ERA from a staff that was a major question mark all season.
Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck have led the way.
- Crawford: 6 GS, 1.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11 BB, 34 K, 33.1 IP
- Houck: 6 GS, 1.60 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 5 BB, 41 K, 39.1 IP
Houck has flashed frontline potential in the past and finally seems to have put it all together, while Crawford quietly had a strong 2023 season and his AL-best 1.35 ERA is backed by a strong 2.20 FIP and solid overall metrics.
These guys are the real deal.
Buy or Sell: Buy
C Connor Wong
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The last remaining player acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Mookie Betts deal, catcher Connor Wong was a 2.2-WAR player last season largely on the strength of his defensive work behind the plate.
He hit .235/.288/.385 for an 80 OPS+ with 36 extra-base hits in 403 plate appearances, and he entered the season looking like a respectable place-holder until top prospect Kyle Teel is ready to push for the starting catcher job.
Instead, he is hitting .343/.366/.582 with five home runs and 13 RBI through his first 71 plate appearances and he has been one of the biggest offensive surprises in baseball.
With an unsustainable .375 batting average on balls in play and poor batted-ball metrics, including an 85.1 mph average exit velocity (8th percentile) and 30.2 percent hard-hit rate (13th percentile), significant regression is likely.
Buy or Sell: Sell
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