Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and MLB's Most Overhyped Stars for 2024 Season
What makes a player overhyped? Well, it's subjective, and certainly those who leave angry social media comments aren't inclined to dive into nuance (or sometimes read the stories they are commenting on).
Before reading this list, though, you should know that no one here is a bad player. In fact, many of them are very good, or have been very good. To have any level of hype, you have to be worth discussing. So, don't mistake someone being placed on this list with them being a scrub. There's a huge difference.
Also, no sweeping conclusions have been made based on the first few games of the 2024 season. Any player on this list now would have been on it a week ago.
However, whether it's because a player is miscast as the face of their team, has battled injuries, is good not great or has declined in any other way, these are the most overhyped players at the outset of the 2024 MLB season.
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
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Cody Bellinger is a former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP, but there's a reason why his free-agent market didn't pan out how he had hoped, even after a strong 2023 season with the Cubs.
Typically, someone who can play multiple positions and is on the right side of 30 would have garnered a $300-plus million deal in free agency.
But to boil Bellinger's resume down to just his accomplishments is missing some necessary context.
Between 2020 and 2022, he slashed .203/.272/.376 with just a .648 OPS. That led to the Dodgers non-tendering him after 2022. He landed with the Cubs and rebounded nicely, hitting .307/.356/.525 with an .881 OPS. It wasn't the MVP level he played at in 2019, but it was All-Star level.
However, beyond just wanting to see multiple strong years from Bellinger after three consecutive disappointing ones, teams in free agency this offseason were wary of some of the concerning underlying metrics from his 2023 campaign.
The most concerning was that the 28-year-old's hard-hit percentage in 2023 was 29.2. When he won the NL MVP in 2019, his hard-hit percentage was 49.2. On one hand, he probably needed to stop trying to replicate his 2019 season after three down years. But it's fair to wonder if he can sustain success over the lifetime of a long-term deal if he's not making hard contact at a rate comparable to what he once did.
Bellinger settled for a three-year, $80 million deal to return to the Cubs this offseason after a disappointing trip in free agency. The deal includes the opportunity to opt out and return to free agency after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons if he wishes.
If he has another big year in 2024, he should make out well next offseason, considering he'll still be under 30 and won't have a qualifying offer attached to him.
Based off of some of the concerns listed above, though, it's hardly a guarantee Bellinger will opt out of two years and $52.5 million after the 2024 season.
Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spent the offseason trying to remake St. Louis' pitching staff on the fly, and he bet quite a bit on pitchers in their mid-to-late-30s.
In addition to signing Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson, the team reunited with Lance Lynn on a one-year, $11 million deal.
The 36-year-old is coming off a disastrous campaign split between the White Sox and Dodgers, where he posted a 5.73 ERA and surrendered an MLB-leading 44 home runs over 183.2 innings pitched.
It's great to have guys who log innings in your starting rotation, but between Lynn and Gibson, the Cardinals have two pitchers on the wrong side of 35 who may pitch relatively deep in games but may also give up four or five runs in doing so.
Between his first stint with the Cardinals and a run split between the Rangers and White Sox from 2019-2021, Lynn has some seasons on his resume where he was one of the better pitchers in the sport.
But 2023 was a mess, and he will turn 37 in May. You wonder if he's just hit a wall, and if that wall will also begin to include him no longer pitching as deep into games as he has previously.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
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Make no mistake, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a very good hitter. He had a great season in 2021, finishing runner-up to Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP.
However, the jury is still out on whether he's a great player, despite being treated like one of the faces of the sport. For example, he's the cover athlete for "MLB: The Show 24," even though he's coming off of a good rather than great season.
Guerrero exploded offensively in 2021, slashing .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs, 111 RBI, a 1.002 OPS and a 6.3 WAR. In many years, he would have been the MVP. No one is disputing the output he had three seasons ago.
In the two years since, though, the 25-year-old hasn't come close to replicating that superstar production. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has slashed .269/.342/.462 with 58 home runs, 191 RBI, an .804 OPS and 3.8 WAR.
He's still been an All-Star selection in each of the last two seasons and a strong run producer. But even if you believe he is unlikely to replicate his 2021 season, his OPS dipped to .788 in 2023. A 214-point dip in OPS between 2021 and 2023 isn't a small drop.
Also worth noting is that while Guerrero did win a Gold Glove Award in 2022, his defensive metrics were awful a season ago, when he finished with -6 defensive runs saved and -13 outs above average.
He has tremendous power and carries the same name as his Hall of Fame father, who was one of the most universally loved players in modern MLB history. But it's fair to point out that to this point, the Hall of Fame-caliber production he put up in 2021 looks like something of an outlier, even he still ends up being a very good hitter.
Kiké Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Kiké Hernández has had an excellent career as a super-utility star, but he needs to reestablish himself after consecutive disappointing seasons.
Over the last two years, the 32-year-old has posted a 74 OPS+, far below the league average of 100. Among qualified position players, only Jurickson Profar recorded a worse mark than his -1.3 WAR a season ago.
If there's any consolation, it's that after the Red Sox traded him back to the Dodgers, Hernández posted a .731 OPS in 54 games, a drastic improvement over the .599 mark he posted in 86 games with Boston.
That earned him a one-year, $4 million deal to return to the Dodgers, where he'll attempt to reestablish himself as the best super-utility player this side of Ben Zobrist.
Based off of how he played over the last two seasons, though, it's fair to be skeptical of whether Hernández will be successful in trying to do that.
José Abreu, Houston Astros
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For nine years, José Abreu put up elite offensive production that was largely overlooked on the Chicago White Sox. He did win the AL MVP in the pandemic-shortened season, but many put an asterisk next to awards earned over the 60-game campaign.
So when the three-time All-Star signed a three-year, $58.5 million deal with the Astros prior to the 2023 season, it felt like he was finally going to have a chance to step into the national spotlight after rarely getting the chance to do so in close to a decade with the White Sox.
Instead, Abreu turned in the worst season of his career. While he drove in 90 runs, he finished his first season in Houston with career lows in batting average (.237), on-base percentage (.296), slugging percentage (.383), OPS (.680) and WAR (-0.6).
Will Abreu bounce back in a relative sense in 2024? Probably. It's hard to imagine him having an OPS below .700 and a negative WAR for the second consecutive season.
At age 37, though, there's a real chance Abreu is past his peak, and the Astros paid for the past production of a slugger who posted an .860 OPS during his time with the White Sox.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
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Cronenworth had an excellent rookie season in 2020, which he followed up by making consecutive All-Star Game appearances in 2021 and 2022. However, 2023 was a disappointing year, and the way the Padres are using him has diminished his value.
A year ago, the 30-year-old hit just .229 with a career-low .689 OPS. His OPS+ was at 92, below the league average of 100. After posting 4.2 WAR marks in both 2021 and 2022, he finished 2023 with just a 1.0 WAR, per FanGraphs.
When Cronenworth broke into the league, he was a middle infielder who played primarily at second base. Between 2020 and 2022, he delivered strong defense at second base (seven defensive runs saved and seven outs above average) and a .770 OPS.
When playing second base, a .770 OPS is a strong mark. At first base, it's a lot more pedestrian. With Xander Bogaerts at second base and Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, Cronenworth is the primary first baseman for manager Mike Shildt in 2024.
Kim can become a free agent after the 2024 season, so it's possible this is just a short-term arrangement. But if the Padres believe Bogaerts should remain at second base for the remainder of his career, that means Cronenworth is likely stuck at first base as long as he's in San Diego.
Even if he bounces back at the plate in 2024, his typical offensive output is much more replaceable at first base than it was when he played in the middle infield.
Salvador Pérez, Kansas City Royals
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Salvador Pérez is one of the greatest players in Kansas City Royals history, and he has tremendous longevity given that he's primarily been a catcher. But even though he was an All-Star for the eighth time a season ago, some of his metrics have dipped considerably.
If you just look at the back-of-the-baseball-card stats, you would think that the 33-year-old had a pretty typical offensive season last year. He hit .255 with 23 home runs and 80 RBI. But his 94 OPS+ was below the league average of 100. His .714 OPS was the lowest mark he's posted since 2018.
Even more concerning is that Pérez—a five-time Gold Glove Award winner—has declined considerably behind the plate. Between 2011 and 2020, he posted 29 defensive runs saved. Over the last three years, he's posted -20 defensive runs saved.
While the leadership Pérez provides as the captain of the Royals shouldn't be discounted, he's never been someone who posts a high on-base percentage, and as his defense has deteriorated, run production is the only value he really brings as a player anymore. That was one thing when he led the AL with 48 home runs and 121 RBI in 2021, but the last two years his successes haven't been worth his shortcomings, as evidenced by the -0.3 WAR he posted last season.
Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds
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Jonathan India won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2021, slashing .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, an .835 OPS and a 3.1 WAR. But while there's no disputing he is a major leaguer, he hasn't yet developed into the star he appeared to be during his first season with the Reds.
Over the last two seasons, the 27-year-old has slashed .246/.333/.394 with 27 home runs, a .727 OPS and a 1.7 WAR. He's posted a 97 OPS+ over that period, which is below the league average of 100.
To make matters worse, India has graded out as one of the worst defenders in baseball, with -21 defensive runs saved and -16 outs above average.
So, he might be too poor of a defender to remain at second base much longer, but he hasn't hit enough to justify being a DH or first baseman.
The Reds are increasingly flush with talent, meaning India may not end up being part of the long-term future for the team if he's unable to recapture the form he showed during his rookie season.
Mitch Garver, Seattle Mariners
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Mitch Garver was a key piece in helping the Rangers to win their first World Series title a year ago, and the AL West-rival Mariners gave him a two-year, $24 million deal with a mutual $12 million option for a third year to be their DH.
Make no mistake, the 33-year-old has an .825 career OPS between the Rangers and Twins, and he's a very productive offensive player when he's on the field. The problem is, he's only played 100 games in a season once, and that was when he played in 102 games for the Twins in 2017. He played in 141 games over the last two seasons.
He's now being asked to replace a bulk of the right-handed thump of Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández previously provided. For whatever flaws those two had, they played almost every day.
In theory, Garver not catching much (or at all) could help him to stay healthier. But he only caught 354 innings over the last two years, so it's not as though he's had a J.T. Realmuto-esque workload behind the plate that he now no longer has to worry about.
What's possible is that the Mariners had trouble attracting one of the many DH types on the market this offseason to T-Mobile Park, probably the least hitter-friendly park in baseball.
On the surface, though, the Mariners probably would have been better signing J.D. Martinez to the one-year, $12 million deal he eventually inked with the Mets. And if it took a few extra million in hazard pay to convince him to come to a place where hitters often struggle, so be it.
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