Predicting Which NFL Players Could Reset the Free-Agent Market in 2025 Offseason
Since most of the top NFL free agents have now signed with teams, it's worth looking ahead to highlight the players who could reset the market in 2025.
A slew of high-profile stars are heading into a contract year. While many are unlikely to go much longer without having a new deal in place, at least a handful of top-tier talents should get a shot at fielding massive offers in free agency next offseason.
With that in mind, let's quickly highlight a few of the biggest names who are poised to cash in with blockbuster extensions before diving into the players who could reset their respective positional markets next spring.
Salary cap data courtesy of Spotrac
Unlikely to Test the Market
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Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wirfs seamlessly slid from the right side of Tampa's offensive line to the left last year and drastically increased his value in the process. He's been a rock for this team since it drafted him in 2020, a year that he helped anchor a Super Bowl-winning offensive line.
Wirfs made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons and has proved he can adequately protect a quarterback's blind side. He should become one of the NFL's highest-paid offensive linemen in the near future.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson has been a force since the Vikings landed him in the 2020 draft. He established himself as the NFL's best receiver in 2022, a year in which he came up just short of breaking Calvin Johnson's all-time single-season yardage record.
Although Jefferson's star slightly faded during an injury-plagued 2023 campaign, he still breeched the 1,000-yard mark despite missing seven games. There's no question that the Vikings will do everything in their power to keep him around, even if it takes shattering the record $30 million annual salary of Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
There may be no better-value pick in the 2021 draft than St. Brown, whom the Lions were fortunate to land early on Day 3 that year. He's taken the league by storm since then, amassing 3,588 yards and 21 touchdowns on 315 catches while helping to turn Detroit into a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The Lions won't have the luxury of picking up a fifth-year option on St. Brown's rookie contract, making it imperative for the front office to hammer out an extension as soon as possible. While he may not break Hill's annual-salary record, St. Brown could easily earn as much as $28 million per year on his next deal.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb has been one of the NFL's top pass-catchers since the Cowboys selected him with the No. 17 pick in the 2020 draft, but he took another major leap last year. The star wideout posted career highs in catches (135), receiving yardage (1,749) and touchdowns (12) while serving as the top playmaker in Dallas' high-powered offense.
There's little chance that the Cowboys will even consider letting the 24-year-old reach the open market after such a special start to his career. Don't be surprised if the club makes a Lamb extension its top priority this offseason.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
After waffling about Tagovailoa's ability to become their franchise signal-caller, the Dolphins finally put an end to the trade rumors and made it clear they were committing to him ahead of the 2022 season. They brought in Hill that offseason, and Tagovailoa has flourished since.
It's now time for Miami to lock the 26-year-old up for the foreseeable future. There's almost zero chance he'll be allowed to test the market after amassing 8,172 passing yards and 54 touchdowns in his last 30 starts.
Considering he's also taken the 'Phins to back-to-back playoff appearances following a half-decade postseason hiatus, Tagovailoa is poised to become one of the league's highest-paid players.
Quarterback: Dak Prescott
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Dak Prescott could become a free agent next spring on the heels of a nine-year run with the Dallas Cowboys. Unless he signs another extension, he'll be playing out the final season of the four-year, $160 million extension he signed back in 2021.
While Prescott is confident that the two sides will agree to a new deal, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported Tuesday that there's "no indication" a new contract is coming. Prescott's lack of playoff success might be factoring into that. He boasts an impressive 73-41 record in the regular season over the last eight years, but he's only 2-5 across five postseason trips.
If the Cowboys aren't confident that Prescott can carry them into the NFC Championship Game and beyond for the first time in nearly three decades, it may soon be time for the club to move on.
Prescott's lack of victories likely won't preclude him from commanding a huge contract on the open market, though. Spotrac projects the 30-year-old to be worth $50.8 million annually, which would make him one of the league's highest-paid quarterbacks. Only Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts currently have average annual values north of $50 million.
Since more than a handful of teams are desperate for a capable signal-caller, Prescott could even end up becoming the NFL's highest-paid quarterback if he gets an opportunity to test the open market. There's a realistic chance that he'll end up inking a contract worth $60 million or more per year, per NFL insider Jordan Schultz.
Prescott could reset the quarterback market after a strong finish to his 2023 campaign and potential for another strong year in 2024.
Running Back: Nick Chubb
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After a historic class of free-agent running backs cashed in this offseason, there won't be many top-tier tailbacks hitting free agency in 2025. Nick Chubb is the best of a relatively weak crop that is also slated to include James Conner, Aaron Jones and Raheem Mostert, among others.
While Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2 this past year, he was a Pro Bowler in each of the four previous years and amassed at least 996 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in each of his first five NFL seasons. Despite assuming large workloads ever since the Browns drafted him with a first-round pick in 2018, Chubb had never missed more than four games in a year prior to last season.
Despite that consistency, much of Chubb's free-agency value will be tied to how he fares after his knee injury. According to The Athletic's Zac Jackson, Cleveland is hoping to have Chubb return in the "back half of next season."
If he's able to quickly shake off the rust and prove that a pair of knee surgeries hasn't negatively impacted him too much, he could be in line for a handsome contract next spring.
ESPN's Aaron Schatz suggested the Browns could give Chubb an extension, in part to lower his cap hit in 2024. If they instead allow him to become a free agent next spring, he could easily eclipse the money that fellow veterans such as Saquon Barkley ($12.6 average annual value) and Josh Jacobs ($12M AAV) signed for this offseason.
Chubb might not make Christian McCaffrey-esque money ($16M AAV), but something in the neighborhood of what Jonathan Taylor received ($14M AAV) early last season would push the running back market up a bit.
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Wide Receiver: Brandon Aiyuk
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After constructing one of the NFL's most talented rosters and reaching a pair of Super Bowls over the last four years, the San Francisco 49ers will soon be feeling the effects of the salary cap. One of the main casualties from this impending cap crunch could be wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who has steadily developed into one of the NFL's top talents at his position.
Aiyuk had a breakout season in 2022, as he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time and scored eight touchdowns on 78 receptions. The 2020 first-round pick built upon that last year, going off for a career-high 1,342 yards and seven scores on 75 receptions.
While the Niners were able to retain Aiyuk for 2024 by picking up his fifth-year option, that hasn't stopped a flurry of news and speculation regarding his future. That includes analyzing cryptic Instagram posts as well as general manager John Lynch needing to publicly shoot down trade rumors and confirm the team is attempting to work on an extension.
San Francisco has only $7.5 million in cap space right now and is projected to be $29.1 million over the cap next year—the third-highest amount in the league—so this could be Aiyuk's final season in the Bay Area. Spotrac projects him to earn $24 million per year on his next deal, which could price the Niners out.
Don't be surprised if Aiyuk earns even more than that if he tests the market next spring. He would be tied with Stefon Diggs and DK Metcalf by inking a contract worth $24 million annually, but a lack of available top-tier wideouts could push him into the range of what Cooper Kupp ($26.7M AAV) and even Davante Adams ($28M AAV) are currently earning.
Edge: Josh Allen
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The Jacksonville Jaguars weren't willing to let their top pass-rusher test the open market this year. Instead, they used the franchise tag to keep Josh Allen through the 2024 campaign.
It's tough to envision the organization eating the costs of tagging him for a second straight year, though. That could result in a massive payday for the rising star edge-rusher.
Allen earned the tag after a career year in which he tallied 66 total tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 33 quarterback hits, 17.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. It was the fourth time in five seasons that Allen recorded at least seven sacks, with an injury-plagued 2020 campaign being the lone outlier.
The two-time Pro Bowler has set himself up nicely to cash in with a market-resetting deal next spring. He's only 26 and is just entering his prime after years of teasing his immense talents. The 2019 No. 7 overall pick possesses everything an edge-rusher needs to succeed in the NFL, including great size, athleticism and a varied arsenal of moves.
Spotrac predicts Allen will earn nearly $24 million annually on his next contract, which is nearly the same as he's making in 2024 on the franchise tag. Considering how many clubs would benefit from an elite edge-rusher, it wouldn't raise many eyebrows to see Allen push upward of $28 million per year when he finally signs a long-term deal.
That kind of deal would put him in rare company—T.J. Watt, Brian Burns and Nick Bosa are the only edge-rushers who make more than $28 million per year—but another double-digit sack showing would warrant that type of payday.
Cornerback: A.J. Terrell
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The Atlanta Falcons will soon find themselves facing a tough decision regarding the future of A.J. Terrell. The star cornerback has been one of the few bright spots for the team's defense over the last four seasons and is set to play out the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.
While a long-term extension once seemed to be a no-brainer after Terrell earned a second-team All-Pro nod in his sophomore season, he hasn't been quite as productive in the ensuing years. After securing three picks during that breakout 2021 campaign, the Clemson product has failed to record an interception in either of the last two seasons.
Despite the lack of picks, Terrell has still been a quality coverage man. He only conceded four touchdowns last year—just one more than he gave up during his 2021 campaign—and allowed a respectable 55.6 percent completion rate on the 81 targets he faced in 2023.
If the Falcons weren't strapped for cash after doling out a four-year, $180 million deal to veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins while having extensions looming for other stars such as tight end Kyle Pitts, they would likely have no qualms giving Terrell a market-value offer. However, the team—which has only $2.7 million in cap space left—could let the 25-year-old walk at the start of the 2025 league year for financial reasons.
Atlanta's loss would be another team's gain. Spotrac projects Terrell to make nearly $20 million annually on his next deal, which many clubs should happily pay to upgrade their secondary.
That kind of cash would make him the NFL's third-highest-paid corner, trailing only Denzel Ward ($20.1M AAV) and Jaire Alexander ($21M AAV). But it's worth it to lock up one of the top young talents at a position that recently had players like L'Jarius Sneed and Jaylon Johnson ink somewhat below-market deals worth $19 million per year.
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