Keys to Cowboys Avoiding Early Exit in 2023-24 Playoffs

The Dallas Cowboys haven't been to the NFC Championship Game since 1995. For this year's playoff run to be considered a success, that streak needs to come to an end.

The Cowboys enter the final week of the season as the No. 2 seed in the NFC bracket. Outside of two blowout losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills, they've been among the league's most consistent teams, compiling a record of 11-5.

Regular season success hasn't always guaranteed successful postseason runs for the Cowboys of late, though. Unfortunately, they've had their fair share of early exits and will be looking to end the trend in 2024.

Here are three keys to ensuring that they don't fall victim to another January collapse and wind up at least vying for the NFC championship.

Secure the No. 2 Seed

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ARLINGTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 23: The Dallas Cowboys offensive line lines up across the Washington Commanders defensive line at the line of scrimmage during the first half at AT&T Stadium on November 23, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

The first thing the Cowboys can do to extend their playoff lives is to make sure they wrap up the No. 2 seed in the final week of the season.

Thanks to the Eagles struggles down the final stretch of the season, the Cowboys control their own NFC East destiny in Week 18. They need to beat the struggling Commanders to clinch the NFC East and the No. 2 seed.

That is going to be critical because earning the No. 2 seed would guarantee home field all the way until the NFC Championship Game and also allow them to avoid the 49ers.

The road to the Super Bowl goes through San Francisco right now and the Cowboys should be looking to put off that matchup as long as possible. Not only did Kyle Shanahan's squad give Dallas its worst loss of the season, but it has been responsible for its playoff exit in each of the last two seasons.

The Cowboys have proven they are one of the top teams in the league, but they haven't proven they can get over the hump when it comes to their NFC West rival.

A win over the Commanders gives them a great first-round matchup against whoever wins the No. 7 seed and guarantees they get to wait out San Francisco for as long as possible.

Defense Must Continue to Stop Run

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Osa Odighizuwa

The Cowboys defense is among the best units in the game, but their weakness against the run has cropped up from time to time this season.

Most notably, their inability to stop the run against the Bills cost them. Buffalo averaged 5.4 yards per carry, gaining 266 total yards on the ground on 49 attempts for three touchdowns. The bully-ball approach kept the Cowboys offense off the field and Dak Prescott out of rhythm.

Josh Allen only had to throw 15 passes and had just 94 yards passing as the Bill put up 31 in the loss.

The Cowboys have since looked a lot better against the run. The 20-19 win over the Lions last week was, in part, due to the fact the defense held the Lions strong rushing attack to just 125 yards on 31 carries.

Multiple teams in the prospective playoff field will try to duplicate what the Bills did. The Rams, Seahawks and Packers are all possibilities for the seventh-seed who have good running games.

The Cowboys play their base defense at one of the lowest rates in the league, per Sports Info Solutions. That means they have to be able to stop teams from running the ball despite having more defensive backs on the field.

Their ability to avoid an upset could depend on it.

Dak Prescott Must Elevate Game

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ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 30: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys scrambles out of the pocket during an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium on December 30, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott has put together some statistically great seasons. However, his reputation is never going to take the next step beyond that without at least one deep playoff run in his career.

This is a year where the pieces are in place for him to do just that.

Prescott is 2-4 as a starter in the postseason. Some of the criticism he has received is unwarranted. He has thrown 11 touchdowns to five interceptions with another four touchdowns on the ground. It's easy to forgot in the postseason that football is a team game and quarterbacks don't always deserve all of the blame.

But this is arguably the best defense he's had going into the playoffs and the offensive line has mostly done a good job. He's taken 39 sacks, but he's only seen pressure on 16.4 percent of his dropbacks.

He has an elite receiver in CeeDee Lamb who is at the top of his game.

Last season, Prescott was at his worst when they were eliminated by the 49ers. He was 23-of-37 for 206 yards with just one touchdown to two interceptions.

This year, Prescott has thrown 25 touchdowns to three interceptions in their 11 wins, completing 71.1 percent of his passes. In their losses, he has seven touchdowns to five interceptions with a completion percentage of 62.6 percent. The Cowboys go as Prescott goes.

If the Cowboys are going to make the most of their Super Bowl chances this season he has to be better than that. It's simple, but it's the biggest factor for the Cowboys to avoid an early exit.