MLB Trade Rankings: Shane Bieber vs. Corbin Burnes vs. Dylan Cease vs. Tyler Glasnow
There are still some big names on the free-agent pitching market, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
Once some of those dominos start to fall, the trade market for starting pitching could heat up, and there are four big names expected to be available via trade this offseason.
- RHP Shane Bieber, CLE
- RHP Corbin Burnes, MIL
- RHP Dylan Cease, CWS
- RHP Tyler Glasnow, TB
So how do those four pitchers stack up as potential trade targets for teams still looking to bolster their starting rotation?
What follows is a rundown of how the four high-profile trade chips stack up in a variety of different categories, with all of it culminating in predictions for where each one will end up pitching in 2024.
Shane Bieber 2023 Recap
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2023 Stats: 21 GS, 6-6, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 34 BB, 107 K, 128.0 IP, 1.8 WAR
The 2023 season represented a step backward for Shane Bieber after ranking as one of the game's elite starting pitchers dating back to a breakout 2019 campaign, the year before he won AL Cy Young honors.
His 3.80 ERA was his highest since his rookie season in 2018, and an accompanying 3.87 FIP along with a career-low 20.1 percent strikeout rate provided little optimism that it was just a temporary blip.
That leaves him looking more like a quality No. 3 starter than a frontline arm, but there is plenty of value in that profile, especially when he is a proven workhorse with a pair of 200-inning seasons on his resume.
Corbin Burnes 2023 Recap
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2023 Stats: 32 GS, 10-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 66 BB, 200 K, 193.2 IP, 3.5 WAR
Since breaking out during the shortened 2020 season, Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes has been one of baseball's elite starting pitchers.
During that four-year span, he ranks among the MLB leaders in WAR (14.9, sixth), strikeouts (765, second) and innings pitched (622.1, fifth), and he has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting every year, taking home the hardware in 2021.
The 29-year-old has tallied at least 200 strikeouts in three straight years, and his 1.07 WHIP was fifth-lowest in the majors and best in the National League as he finished eighth in NL Cy Young balloting.
Dylan Cease 2023 Recap
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2023 Stats: 33 GS, 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 79 BB, 214 K, 177.0 IP, 2.4 WAR
Right-hander Dylan Cease finished runner-up in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 when he finished 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 187 innings, posting a 6.4-WAR season despite issuing an AL-leading 78 walks.
The 27-year-old continued to issue free passes at a less-than-stellar rate in 2023, but his opponents' batting average also spiked from .190 to .250, which made it more difficult to pitch around those walks.
The good news is his batting average on balls in play also jumped from .260 to .330, so pitching in front of a better defensive unit could mean better numbers across the board even if his walk rate remains higher than most elite starters.
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Tyler Glasnow 2023 Recap
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2023 Stats: 21 GS, 10-7, 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 37 BB, 162 K, 120.0 IP, 2.0 WAR
Since joining the Tampa Bay Rays in a lopsided deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the 2018 trade deadline, Tyler Glasnow has posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 34.1 percent strikeout rate.
The 6'8" right-hander has overpowering stuff and has regularly pitched at a frontline level when healthy, but durability has been a major question mark throughout his career. His 120 innings were a career-high and marked just the second time in his career that he has gone over the 100-inning mark.
The 30-year-old finished strong, making 13 starts after the All-Star break and posting a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 78.1 innings, and entering 2024 with a clean bill of health will be a welcome change from years past.
Stuff
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Fastball Velocity and Metrics
Bieber: 91.3 mph, .257 BAA, 9.3% whiff rate
Burnes: 94.4 mph, .209 BAA, 22.7% whiff rate
Cease: 95.6 mph, .273 BAA, 20.5% whiff rate
Glasnow: 96.4 mph, .240 BAA, 24.7% whiff rate
Glasnow has the best four-seam fastball of the group, ranking in the 88th percentile in velocity and generating an elite 24.7 percent whiff rate with the pitch. However, the most effective heater of the bunch belongs to Burnes, who uses a hard cutter as his go-to fastball. He limited opposing hitters to a .209 batting average and .340 slugging percentage with the pitch in 2023.
Bieber used to sit in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his velocity has been in decline since his 2020 AL Cy Young season when he averaged 94.1 mph with his fastball.
Top Offspeed Pitch Metrics
Bieber (SL): 84.6 mph, .182 BAA, 32.7% whiff rate, 44 K
Burnes (CB): 79.8 mph, .133 BAA, 48.8% whiff rate, 51 K
Cease (SL): 86.3 mph, .216 BAA, 43.3% whiff rate, 119 K
Glasnow (CB): 83.9 mph, .095 BAA, 51.6% whiff rate, 73 K
Cease is essentially a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and slider accounting for 81.8 percent of his pitches in 2023, which makes the effectiveness of his slider all the more impressive.
Burnes has an elite spin rate on both his curveball (2,794 rpm) and slider (2,877 rpm), though he throws the slider less than 10 percent of the time and mostly leans on his fastball-curveball-changeup assortment.
Injury History
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Workload Statistics (2021-23)
Bieber: 68 GS, 46 QS, 67.6 QS%, 424.2 IP, 6.2 IP per start
Burnes: 93 GS, 58 QS, 62.4 QS%, 562.2 IP, 6.1 IP per start
Cease: 97 GS, 38 QS, 39.2 QS%, 526.2 IP, 5.4 IP per start
Glasnow: 37 GS, 18 QS, 48.6 QS%, 214.2 IP, 5.8 IP per start
Durability is always the biggest question mark when it comes to pitchers, and this group of established veterans is no exception.
Burnes and Cease made 32 and 33 starts, respectively, in 2023 and have been significantly more durable than the other two starters in this conversation over the course of their careers.
That said, Bieber has done a better job pitching deeper into games when he has taken the mound, checking in with the best quality start rate of the foursome and a similar innings-per-start mark to Burnes.
The 2023 season was the first time Glasnow made 20 starts, and relying on him to occupy a spot in the rotation for a full year is wishful thinking. That will need to be factored into any potential trade talks, but he has proven time and again he can make a major impact when he is healthy.
Postseason Track Record
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Career Postseason Stats
Bieber: 3 GS, 1-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6 BB, 22 K, 18.0 IP
Burnes: 8 G, 2 GS, 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6 BB, 22 K, 19.0 IP
Cease: 2 G, 1 GS, 0-0, 10.13 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K, 2.2 IP
Glasnow: 10 GS, 2-6, 5.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 25 BB, 61 K, 45.2 IP
No one from this group has a particularly impressive postseason track record.
Burnes (1 GS, 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) and Glasnow (1 GS, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 8 K) both took the loss in their lone start during the 2023 playoffs, while the other two spent October watching from home.
Burnes did throw a gem during the 2022 postseason, limiting a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup to two hits over six scoreless innings in a no-decision. Glasnow also had a strong outing in 2022 against Cleveland with five shutout frames.
There is something to be said for experience, even if the results have been inconsistent, so Glasnow has the edge here.
2024 Salary and Remaining Contract
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2024 Salary
Bieber: $12.2 million projected
Burnes: $15.1 million projected
Cease: $8.8 million projected
Glasnow: $25 million
The Rays signed Glasnow to a backloaded two-year, $30.4 million deal prior to the 2023 season that paid him just $5.4 million last year, and now the small market club is actively shopping a player who is by far the highest-paid on the roster.
The other three pitchers are arbitration-eligible, and all three are projected to earn well below their market value at a time when less accomplished starters like Kyle Gibson (1/$13M), Kenta Maeda (2/$24M) and Nick Martinez (2/$26M) are signing lucrative free agency deals.
2025 Status
Bieber: Free agent
Burnes: Free agent
Cease: Arbitration-eligible
Glasnow: Free agent
The only pitcher from this group that is not a one-year rental is Cease, with the White Sox ace arbitration-eligible for one more year in 2025 before hitting the open market for the first time in his career.
Acquisition Cost
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Here are a few recent trades for quality starting pitchers with at least a year of club control remaining at the time of the trade to give an idea of what it might take to acquire Bieber, Burnes, Cease and Glasnow this offseason:
- NYM acquired RHP Chris Bassitt from OAK for RHP J.T. Ginn, RHP Adam Oller
- SEA acquired RHP Luis Castillo from CIN for IF Noelvi Marte, IF Edwin Arroyo, RHP Andrew Moore, RHP Levi Stoudt
- NYY acquired RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Lou Trivino from OAK for LHP Ken Waldichuk, LHP JP Sears, RHP Luis Medina, IF Cooper Bowman
- MIN acquired RHP Tyler Mahle from CIN for IF/OF Spencer Steer, 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, LHP Steve Hajjar
- MIN acquired RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Francis Peguero from CIN for RHP Chase Petty
Luis Castillo was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline as one of baseball's elite starters with a full year of club control remaining, and he signed a long-term extension shortly after he was acquired, so his trade package might be the best comparison for what it would take to acquire Burnes.
The Tyler Mahle trade package included two prospects that were close to MLB-ready who were not widely included on leaguewide Top 100 prospect lists, so that could be a reasonable comparison for both Bieber and Glasnow, though Glasnow's hefty salary could take a small bite out of his value.
Cease could be the most expensive addition in terms of what goes the other way since he has two full seasons of club control, though his spotty command and inconsistent 2023 performance could push his trade value closer to the Burnes level.
At any rate, teams should expect to give up at least two quality prospects to acquire any of the four pitchers, with Burnes and Cease costing some additional high-upside talent to round out the package.
Landing Spot Predictions
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We've taken a deep dive into the four top-tier starting pitchers headlining this year's starting pitching trade market. Now the question is where each of them are going to land.
Here are my predictions:
- Bieber: Traded to Baltimore Orioles
- Burnes: Stays put, is traded at the 2024 deadline
- Cease: Traded to Cincinnati Reds
- Glasnow: Traded to Chicago Cubs
The Reds and Cubs have both been frequently linked to the starting pitching trade market, and both organizations are stacked with young talent to put together an attractive trade package.
A deal built around Jonathan India or Noelvi Marte could be enough to get the ball rolling for the Reds in a deal to acquire Cease, while the Cubs have the payroll flexibility to take on the bulk of Glasnow's $25 million salary.
Bieber is reportedly open to an extension with the Guardians, though trading him still seems like the most likely outcome following the emergence of rookie Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen in 2023.
Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported over the weekend that Burnes is now expected to stay put with the Brewers eyeing contention in 2024, but a long-term extension remains a long shot and the right offer could still pry him loose.
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