Bowl Predictions 2023: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14
The 2023 College Football regular season has come to an end and the potential College Football Playoff field remains uncomfortably large.
Eight teams appear to have a case to be included in the final four-team field, with some team's having much easier roads than others. A conference title for a few undefeated squads should be the final step towards earning that desired bid, while some chaos in the championship rounds could complicate the picture.
Here is a look at the upcoming conference championship matchups and how they can impact the CFP picture.
ACC Championship: Louisville vs Florida State
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This is another conference championship where only one team has a chance at making the playoff, but this one seems to be much more wide open than the previous two.
Louisville was in the picture until Week 13, but a 38-31 loss to Kentucky pretty much ended any hopes of a historic achievement. Still, the Cardinals are a talented team with a 10-2 record and are facing an undefeated Florida State team that may be less formidable than they were a few weeks ago.
That is because star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury in Week 12, so the Seminoles season will partly be determined by the play of backup Tate Rodemaker.
Rodemaker helped the Seminoles earn a 24-15 victory over Florida in the final game of the regular season, but his 12-of-25, 135-yard performance shows that the Seminole offense will not be as potent as it was with Travis under center.
Combine this with the fact that the Seminoles are facing a Louisville team that is seeking its first ACC Championship, has several strong victories on the season and will be looking to rally following a loss to a major rival, and this matchup has all the makings of an upset.
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Texas
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The Texas Longhorns final season in the Big 12 has been one to celebrate, and the team has a chance to depart on a very positive note.
The 11-1 Longhorns are set to take on Oklahoma State in the conference championship. This is Texas' first appearance in the championship game since 2018 and a victory would give the program its first conference title since 2009.
That 2009 team was the last one to reach the National Title game, and securing a victory in this game is absolutely crucial in order to stay alive in the hunt for a playoff position.
The Longhorns appear primed to do that, as the team is coming off of a 57-7 dismantling of Texas Tech and has won six consecutive games.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are not playing for a playoff appearance, as they sport a 9-3 overall record. However, the chance to eliminate the Longhorns from playoff contention and spoil the team's final conference game is certainly quite the motivation for a Cowboys team that has had a remarkable turnaround after a 2-2 start to the season.
The Cowboys took down the only team to beat Texas all season, Oklahoma, and eliminated that program's chance to reach this stage in their final season, and now Oklahoma State could stake a claim as the team to beat in the conference going forward with a win here.
The Longhorns come into the matchup favored and are the team with a significant hot streak. The Cowboys nearly lost to BYU last week and are still just a few weeks separated from a 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, so Texas should be able to take care of business here.
Big Ten Championship: Iowa vs. Michigan
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The Michigan Wolverines appear poised to reach the playoff for the third consecutive season, but a matchup against a complicated Iowa Hawkeyes team is perhaps the last obstacle in the way of that reality.
Michigan is 12-0 and coming off an epic 30-24 victory over arch-rival Ohio State. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will be back on the sideline as his three-game suspension has officially come to an end. This all bodes well for a Wolverine team that has cruised through conference play and is looking to win three consecutive outright Big Ten titles for the first time in program history.
Iowa has an impressive 10-2 record and boast a strong defense but offensive issues plagued the team all season long. The Hawkeyes possess the lowest ranked offense in the FBS and have only scored more than 20 points in three conference games.
A Hawkeye upset would be monumental and appears very unlikely, but the defense has been outstanding outside of a 31-0 loss to Penn State in September. The unit should be frustrating for the Wolverines to deal with but shouldn't derail the Wolverines chances at another conference title.
Another wrinkle comes with the aforementioned Buckeyes, who remain a long shot option to crack the playoff. Not participating in a conference championship hurts the team's chances, but not adding another loss also keeps the team alive. If enough chaos occurs, two Big Ten teams could be heading to the playoff for the second consecutive season.
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Pac-12 Championship: Oregon vs. Washington
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This is the only Power Five conference championship matchup that is a rematch of a previous game.
The Washington Huskies took down the Oregon Ducks 36-33 in October and have remained undefeated since. Oregon has not lost another game since, so playoff hopes for both team's remain alive in this one as well.
Oregon has obliterated opponents all season long, with the one exception being the loss to Washington. The Ducks have outscored opponents by 156 points since the loss to the Huskies and the offense has notably put up at least 31 points in every game this season.
Washington's road, while unbeaten, has been less smooth. The Huskies needed a last-second field goal to take down Washington State in the final week of the regular season and have been much closer with opponents down the stretch.
The scorching end to the season for the Ducks combined with the sputtering skid from the Huskies, combined with the fact that it is difficult for team's to beat the same team twice in a single season has a flipped result looking much more likely in the final Pac-12 Championship.
SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia
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This is a matchup many have had pinpointed since the beginning of the season.
The Georgia Bulldogs have spent a majority of the season ranked No. 1 in the country and are on a quest to become the first team since the 1934-36 Minnesota Golden Gophers to win three consecutive National Championships.
The Bulldogs are 12-0 and have looked pretty dominant throughout the season. A win over the Alabama Crimson Tide would likely give Georgia the No. 1 seed heading into the playoff and be the clear favorite to win it.
However, doing that is easier said than done. Alabama has rattled off 10 consecutive victories since falling against Texas in Week 2 and is clearly a much-improved team. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has solidified himself as a playmaker and Alabama will clearly be the toughest opponent the Bulldogs have faced all season.
Still, Alabama just narrowly squeaked by Auburn in the Iron Bowl and a loss to Georgia will end any chance at making the playoff. If Georgia were to lose, Alabama would very likely get in and the Bulldogs would still have quite the case.
A Georgia win is the easiest solution for the committee, but Alabama would have quite the resume for inclusion with a victory.
Final CFP Field
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This is the final opportunity for teams to plead their respective cases for inclusion. The road for some programs just relies on a simple victory while others need a win and a prayer.
One team, Ohio State, needs some chaos in order to be included, and the chances of the committee having a very difficult decision on its hands following the week is incredibly high.
Here is one potential way that the CFP could be determined.
Conference Championship Results
Georgia over Alabama
Michigan over Iowa
Louisville over Florida State
Oregon over Washington
Texas over Oklahoma State
Final CFP Rankings
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
5. Washington (12-1)
6. Florida State (12-1)
7. Ohio State (11-1)
8. Alabama (11-2)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
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