Bleacher Report's Expert Week 7 NFL Picks
Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel spent a little extra time in the lab. After a rough week, going 7-8 against the spread, the group had to make a lot of tough calls with several thin margins for Week 7 games.
As of Wednesday, nine of the 13 contests on the slate have a spread of three points or fewer, which means most of the upcoming games can and will likely go either way ATS and straight up.
Our NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, sided with five underdogs this week. We found great value for bettors who look for plus odds.
Before we get to Week 7 picks, check out the ATS and SU standings through six weeks with last week's records in parentheses.
ATS Standings
1. Davenport: 51-40-2 (9-6)
T-2. Gagnon: 48-43-2 (9-6)
T-2. Sobleski: 48-43-2 (6-9)
4. Hanford 47-44-2 (9-6)
5. Knox: 46-45-2 (7-8)
6. Moton: 45-46-2 (6-9)
7. O'Donnell: 44-47-2 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 47-44-2 (7-8)
SU Standings
1. Hanford 61-32 (11-4)
2. Moton: 59-34 (10-5)
3. Knox: 58-35 (9-6)
T-4. Davenport: 57-36 (11-4)
T-4. O'Donnell: 57-36 (8-7)
6. Sobleski: 55-38 (7-8)
7. Gagnon: 54-39 (9-6)
Consensus picks: 56-37 (9-6)
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Oct. 18, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3)
1 of 13
DraftKings Line: New Orleans -1
The New Orleans Saints will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night to kick off Week 7 action. Though both squads have decent win-loss records, bettors should be aware of the significant difference in records ATS.
Against the spread, the Saints are tied for the sixth-worst record overall at 1-4-1, and they're 0-4-1 as the favorite. The Jaguars are tied for fourth overall at 4-2.
Our crew knows that Thursday games can bring some surprises, but they'll trust the numbers for this matchup as this is our only unanimous decision ATS.
Furthermore, these teams have trended in opposite directions over the past month. Sobleski picked the squad that's on an upswing assuming Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (knee sprain) suits up for the contest.
"Ever since the Jaguars arrived in London prior to their Week 4 contest against the Atlanta Falcons, they're putting on bangers and mashing opponents. Jacksonville is on a three-game winning streak during which its defense has created nine turnovers. Meanwhile, the Saints have lost three of their last four.
"The biggest difference in this quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football is whether Trevor Lawrence plays. He was limited in practice Tuesday, but he expects to be in the lineup."
Predictions
Davenport: Jaguars
Gagnon: Jaguars
Hanford: Jaguars
Knox: Jaguars
Moton: Jaguars
O'Donnell: Jaguars
Sobleski: Jaguars
ATS Consensus: Jaguars +1
SU Consensus: Jaguars
Score Prediction: Jaguars 23, Saints 21
Detroit Lions (5-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
2 of 13
DK Line: Baltimore -3
The Detroit Lions seem like they're ready to run away with the NFC North title, up three notches in the win column over the second-place Green Bay Packers, who have a sub-.500 record.
The Lions have also helped bettors cash in this season with a 5-1 record ATS, which is tied with the Miami Dolphins for the best across the league. As a squad on the ascent, Detroit has garnered faith within our group to get the majority nod on a three-point cover.
A few of our experts went in the other direction in a close vote, and O'Donnell explained why the Baltimore Ravens should be the pick.
"This game should scare everyone. And I realize folks are probably champing at the bit to take the Lions as underdogs—they're 5-1 ATS this season and have actually been favored in five of those games, so getting points seems like a really easy call. But there's a reason the bookmakers are ignoring the fact the Ravens are returning from a trip across the pond and making them a three-point home favorite.
"This is the same Ravens team that lost in overtime at home to the Gardner Minshew-led Colts, and comically gave away a 10-point lead and game to the rival Steelers in Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. This line should be smaller if not in favor of the Lions. I'm not falling for it. The Lions are fun and easy to root for, but I'm taking Lamar Jackson to have a day at home that both covers the spread and gives Dan Campbell's team a reality check."
Predictions
Davenport: Lions
Gagnon: Ravens
Hanford: Ravens
Knox: Lions
Moton: Lions
O'Donnell: Ravens
Sobleski: Lions
ATS Consensus: Lions +3
SU Consensus: Lions
Score Prediction: Lions 26, Ravens 24
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at New England Patriots (1-5)
3 of 13
DK Line: Buffalo -9
Following an offensive explosion between Weeks 2 and 4, outscoring opponents 123-33, the Buffalo Bills have put 34 points on the board over the last two weeks.
In Week 6, the Bills narrowly beat the Giants 14-9 in Buffalo, and quarterback Josh Allen has thrown an interception in three of his last four outings, which raises concerns about laying double-digit points with the road favorite.
Most of our experts expect the Bills to go on an offensive onslaught against a division rival that they've beaten by 12 or more points in each of the last four meetings, which includes one playoff contest, but Gagnon pushed back on the consensus because of the Bills' struggles against the Giants' 28th-ranked scoring defense.
"Considering the state of Buffalo's defense from a health standpoint as well as that poor showing from the offense in Week 6, it's hard to get behind this team as a near-double-digit favorite on the road against a desperate and well-coached team. The Patriots know the Bills well, and they fought pretty hard in Las Vegas last weekend. I just don't see this being a blowout."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Patriots
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -9
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 16
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Washington Commanders (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)
4 of 13
DK Line: Washington -2
Last week, the New York Giants covered their first spread of the season, albeit in a 14-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills. As the replacement for quarterback Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor looked capable under center (24-of-36 passing for 200 yards) with help from running back Saquon Barkley on the ground.
Jones could miss consecutive outings with a neck injury, but Barkley's return from a high ankle sprain changes the complexion of this contest.
The Washington Commanders rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed per contest, and they're giving up 4.6 yards per carry (26th leaguewide). In his second game back on the field, Barkley could have his best outing of the season.
Our crew sided with Big Blue whether Taylor or Jones starts because of Barkley's potential impact. O'Donnell emphasized defense and the turnover battle in his reasons to back Big Blue.
"The Giants have been abysmal for almost the entire 2023 season, but they finally displayed some heart and fight in their Week 6 loss to the Bills," O'Donnell said. "Last season, they probably would've won that game, so let's attempt to build on that momentum.
"Ron Rivera's team is scrappy, and not dissimilar to Big Blue in how it wants a game script to play out. Whether Daniel Jones plays or not (it seems like he will not), this game won't be pretty, and both sides will be OK with that.
"Both pass rushes and the turnover battle will be key. And, despite losing, New York has actually won the turnover battle in its last couple of games. The Giants have nothing to lose at this point, and I like that for their confidence. I think they win outright but will gladly take the points in what should be a slog of a game."
Predictions
Davenport: Commanders
Gagnon: Giants
Hanford: Giants
Knox: Commanders
Moton: Giants
O'Donnell: Giants
Sobleski: Commanders
ATS Consensus: Giants +2
SU Consensus: Giants
Score Prediction: Giants 26, Commanders 22
Cleveland Browns (3-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
5 of 13
DK Line: Cleveland -2
Following their biggest win of the season, a 19-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, the Cleveland Browns will look to avoid an emotional letdown against a scrappy Indianapolis Colts squad.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Browns are "cautiously optimistic" that quarterback Deshaun Watson will return from a shoulder injury after two games on the sideline.
If Watson doesn't suit up, P.J. Walker would likely make consecutive starts. Regardless of the Browns' quarterback situation, they have an overall better roster with the No. 1 defense in total yards that's fifth in points allowed. Last week, with Walker under center, four-time Pro Bowl wideout Amari Cooper hauled in four passes for 108 yards.
As for the Colts, they're without dynamic rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson, who's out for the season, and the club lost a key defensive starter who could've helped slow down the Browns' fourth-ranked ground attack. Because of those absences, Sobleski likes the Browns to cover the spread.
"This past weekend, the Browns found a way to overcome significant injuries because of their dominant defense. The Colts don't have the same luxury, particularly after the NFL levied a six-game suspension on nose tackle Grover Stewart. With Anthony Richardson already out of the lineup and wide receiver Alec Pierce dealing with a shoulder injury, Stewart's loss will create a significant ripple effect to place the Colts at a major disadvantage.
"Even at full strength, Indianapolis would struggle against this Browns defense. Cleveland just needs to get enough from its offense and it should."
Predictions
Davenport: Colts
Gagnon: Browns
Hanford: Colts
Knox: Browns
Moton: Browns
O'Donnell: Browns
Sobleski: Browns
ATS Consensus: Browns -2
SU Consensus: Browns
Score Prediction: Browns 28, Colts 20
Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Chicago Bears (1-5)
6 of 13
DK Line: Las Vegas -3
In a battle between teams with backup quarterbacks, we will see the Las Vegas Raiders start Brian Hoyer while the Chicago Bears trot out Tyson Bagent. Both teams have ruled out their starting signal-callers for Sunday's contest.
On Friday, The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported that Hoyer would get the nod in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (back). Bagent filled in for Justin Fields (dislocated thumb) in the second half of the Bears' Week 6 game with the Minnesota Vikings.
In this matchup, the offense that makes fewer mistakes will likely give its team the upper hand, which means a thin margin for victory, and our crew sided with the Raiders.
Moton believes wide receiver Davante Adams will bounce back from a couple of nondescript outings to put the Silver and Black over the top by more than three points.
"Last week, the Raiders scored more than 20 points for the first time this season, but their defense pushed them over the mark with a safety to close out a 21-17 win over the New England Patriots, which helped bettors cash in on a three-point spread in favor of the Silver and Black.
"Even though the Raiders will likely take the field without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who's battling a back injury, Brian Hoyer should be able to do enough against the Bears' 29th-ranked pass defense to lead Vegas to a win by more than a field goal.
"Of Chicago's five losses, four have been by six or more points. After a couple of quiet outings for Davante Adams, expect him to demand the ball in a big game with 100-plus receiving yards and a couple of touchdowns."
Predictions
Davenport: Raiders
Gagnon: Raiders
Hanford: Raiders
Knox: Raiders
Moton: Raiders
O'Donnell: Raiders
Sobleski: Bears
ATS Consensus: Raiders -3
SU Consensus: Raiders
Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Bears 17
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
7 of 13
DK Line: Tampa Bay -2.5
The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to rebound from home losses in a divisional matchup that may be for first place in the NFC South if the New Orleans Saints lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday night.
This season, the Falcons are 1-5 ATS with their only cover against the winless Carolina Panthers in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have won two of their three games by 10-plus points.
Most of our experts like the numbers in Tampa Bay's favor. Furthermore, Knox believes the Buccaneers can limit the Falcons' offensive strength in a close victory.
"This one's tricky because Baker Mayfield is dealing with a left hand injury, and the Buccaneers' running game seems to disappear for long stretches. Like last season, no team is averaging fewer yards per carry. This caused significant issues in Week 6 against the Detroit Lions, a well-rounded team with a strong defense.
"While the Falcons have a pretty good defense themselves, they're not nearly as well-rounded as the Lions. Their pass rush lacks a punch, and Desmond Ridder has provided a roller coaster of good and bad quarterbacking.
"Outside of the Packers game, Atlanta's ground game hasn't looked nearly as potent as it did in 2022, and the Bucs are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. It should be close, but I think there are enough individual matchups that favor the home team for Tampa to win by at least a field goal."
Predictions
Davenport: Buccaneers
Gagnon: Buccaneers
Hanford: Buccaneers
Knox: Buccaneers
Moton: Falcons
O'Donnell: Buccaneers
Sobleski: Falcons
ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -2.5
SU Consensus: Buccaneers
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
8 of 13
DK Line: Seattle -7.5
The Seattle Seahawks offense, particularly the passing attack, should be a little more productive with a wide receiver trio that features DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which would lead you to believe this turns into a blowout game for the home team.
Though the Seahawks rank 11th in passing yards per game, Metcalf has had an inconsistent start to the season with four or fewer catches in three out of five contests, and he's shown his frustration on the field.
We expect quarterback Geno Smith to make it right with his star wideout and carve up the Arizona Cardinals' 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Davenport doesn't have any faith that Arizona will keep pace with Seattle or stop running back Kenneth Walker III on the ground.
"This is a robust spread given the Seahawks scored all of 13 points last week, but that's more than Arizona managed against the Rams. The loss of running back James Conner was a crusher for the Cardinals offense—it has shifted all the pressure onto quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who then remembered he's Joshua Dobbs.
"All the Seahawks have to do is bracket Cards wideout Marquise Brown, give a marshmallow-soft Arizona run defense a healthy dose of Kenneth Walker Texas Ranger, and Seattle should cruise to a win. The Seahawks are 3-2 ATS this season, while the Redbirds have failed to cover in 11 of the last 12 against NFC West opponents.
"How's that for some hard-hitting analysis? I'm more than just a pretty face and bad jokes. I read stuff, too. Especially pop-up books. Those are awesome."
Predictions
Davenport: Seahawks
Gagnon: Seahawks
Hanford: Cardinals
Knox: Seahawks
Moton: Seahawks
O'Donnell: Cardinals
Sobleski: Cardinals
ATS Consensus: Seahawks -7.5
SU Consensus: Seahawks
Score Prediction: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
9 of 13
DK Line: Los Angeles -3
The Pittsburgh Steelers have muscled their way to a 3-2 record, but they have two blowout losses in which they gave up 30 points and failed to reach double digits on the scoreboard. On the road, they'll face the Los Angeles Rams, who won their first home game of the season last week.
Bettors on either side have a key stat that works in their favor.
Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have won the game following their bye week for six consecutive seasons, which indicates they're a well-prepared team after a week off.
This season, the Rams have a 4-1-1 record ATS, third-best across the NFL.
Our experts came to a consensus in favor of Los Angeles, and Hanford provided strong reasons to back the Rams.
"A healthy Cooper Kupp spells danger for the Steelers in Week 7. I'd have said the same if it was just Puka Nacua. Steelers fans may feel the defense has improved this season, but the unit still struggles overall aside from T.J. Watt being T.J. Watt. Sure, they scored two defensive touchdowns to beat the Browns, but that's more luck than a sticky stat, and the Ravens only managed 10 points in Week 5 due in large part to no one being able to catch the football.
"We've already seen Pittsburgh struggle against schemes related to what they'll see from L.A. after getting lit up by Kyle Shanahan's and Bobby Slowik's offenses this year.
"I'm going to assume Pittsburgh's offense won't move the ball consistently until it shows any inkling of knowing how to do so. Anything less than a stellar defensive performance likely dooms Mike Tomlin's squad. Maybe Pittsburgh finds some touchdown luck for a big play or two again, but the Stafford-Kupp connection looks as strong as ever since the WR's return. I like the Rams by at least three at home."
Predictions
Davenport: Rams
Gagnon: Steelers
Hanford: Rams
Knox: Rams
Moton: Steelers
O'Donnell: Rams
Sobleski: Rams
ATS Consensus: Rams -3
SU Consensus: Rams
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Steelers 17
Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
10 of 13
DK Line: Kansas City -5.5
The Los Angeles Chargers came out of their bye week flat and fell short at home in a 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.
Even more worrisome for the Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert had an off night, completing 59.5 percent of his passes. He's failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in consecutive outings. If Herbert's broken finger on his non-throwing hand (suffered in Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders) isn't the cause for his subpar play, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has to figure out a way to help the signal-caller find his groove again.
Herbert faces a tough road challenge on a short week. Coming off a Thursday game, the Kansas City Chiefs had extra days to prepare for this matchup, and they're sixth in passing yards allowed per game.
We sided with Kansas City to win by a touchdown, and Knox highlighted how the Chiefs can limit the Chargers offense, which is missing one of its key perimeter playmakers.
"I'll admit that this line gives me a lot of pause. Each of last year's meetings was decided by a field goal, and Kansas City's offense has been far more inconsistent than it was in 2022. However, Kansas City's defense is better than it was a year ago—only the 49ers have allowed fewer points per game—whereas the Chargers defense looks just as suspect as it did in 2022 (albeit better against the run).
"The loss of Mike Williams continues to loom large for L.A., and with Kansas City's receiver group still searching for a rhythm, I expect this to be a physical, somewhat sloppy and relatively low-scoring affair. In that type of matchup, I'll back the home team to pull away from the one on a short week."
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Chiefs
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Chiefs
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Chargers
Sobleski: Chargers
ATS Consensus: Chiefs -5.5
SU Consensus: Chiefs
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 17
Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Denver Broncos (1-5)
11 of 13
DK Line: Green Bay -1
The Denver Broncos may be one loss away from a full-blown fire sale before the trade deadline, which may raise the urgency level in the Mile High City.
Fortunately for the Broncos, they'll play the Green Bay Packers, who have dropped consecutive outings after two wins in the first three weeks of the season.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for two touchdowns and six interceptions in his last three games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have forced five turnovers in their last three contests.
Denver could win the turnover battle, which swayed our experts toward the home underdog. Gagnon gave a slight nod to the Broncos, who desperately need a win with a Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback looking to right the ship.
"I have no confidence in either team right now, but the Broncos have the pedigree advantage and are getting a point at home. Sean Payton and Russell Wilson will want to send a message here. And while the Packers are coming off their bye week, the Broncos are also operating on extra rest following a Thursday appearance in Week 6."
Predictions
Davenport: Packers
Gagnon: Broncos
Hanford: Broncos
Knox: Broncos
Moton: Broncos
O'Donnell: Broncos
Sobleski: Packers
ATS Consensus: Broncos +1
SU Consensus: Broncos
Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Packers 23
Miami Dolphins (5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
12 of 13
DK Line: Philadelphia -2
In a marquee cross-conference matchup between one-loss teams, the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles will likely battle in a tight contest as the latter looks to avoid consecutive losses. With those factors alone, we understand why oddsmakers listed the Eagles as slight favorites.
However, most of our panel sided with the Dolphins because their No. 1 passing attack in total yards and touchdowns should find success against the Eagles' 20th-ranked pass defense, which has surrendered the fourth-most scores through the air.
Furthermore, the Dolphins are tied with the Detroit Lions for the best record ATS at 5-1. We don't see the Eagles offense replicating its turnover-ridden performance from last week, but Miami's offense has operated on another level.
With that said, Hanford went against the group consensus and backed the Eagles, who have the ability to turn a track meet into a slow-paced physical contest.
"The Dolphins offense is as scary as it gets with Mike McDaniel seemingly throwing in a new wrinkle every week for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Co. to have some fun with, but I think they're in for a challenge this week. Yes, Miami is putting up historic numbers offensively, but its four highest point totals this year came against the Panthers, Giants, Chargers and Broncos. Not exactly a defensive murderer's row there.
"The Eagles have struggled to stop the pass, but they do still stop the run very well, which should at least force Miami to be more one-dimensional. Factor in a windy forecast, and Miami's offense is up for a stiffer test than usual.
"Jalen Hurts looked as bad last week as I've ever seen him, but I think the Eagles change their approach this week and focus on running the ball. The best way to stymie Miami's attack is by keeping it off the field, and the Eagles should be able to move the ball on the ground even if Lane Johnson is unable to go. This one will be close, but give me the Eagles on a late field goal."
Predictions
Davenport: Dolphins
Gagnon: Eagles
Hanford: Eagles
Knox: Dolphins
Moton: Dolphins
O'Donnell: Dolphins
Sobleski: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: Dolphins +2
SU Consensus: Dolphins
Score Prediction: Dolphins 35, Eagles 31
San Francisco 49ers (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
13 of 13
DK Line: San Francisco -6.5
Last week, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves on the wrong side of an upset in a 19-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns, who started quarterback P.J. Walker in place of Deshaun Watson (shoulder).
To make matters worse for the 49ers, running back Christian McCaffrey (oblique), wideout Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) suffered injuries during the game.
San Francisco's injury report made Gagnon a bit nervous about laying 6.5 points with the 49ers, but our crew came to a strong majority in favor of the NFC West leader.
Davenport doesn't see San Francisco playing down to its competition in consecutive weeks.
"Laying 6.5 points on the road is a lot, but there are two glaring reasons the 49ers are the play here," Davenport said.
"There's Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins' stellar record on Monday Night Football—two wins in a dozen games. There's a Minnesota offense that struggled badly without Justin Jefferson last week—the Vikings can't run the ball at all unless you count Alexander Mattison falling forward as 'running.'
"And there's a 49ers team that has to be seething after the pterodactyl egg it laid in Cleveland in Week 6.
"OK, that's three reasons. Math is dumb. Anyway, unless alien doppelgangers kidnapped the 49ers, they aren't playing that badly two weeks in a row. They'll handle a mediocre Vikings team by double digits."
Predictions
Davenport: 49ers
Gagnon: Vikings
Hanford: 49ers
Knox: 49ers
Moton: 49ers
O'Donnell: 49ers
Sobleski: 49ers
ATS Consensus: 49ers -6.5
SU Consensus: 49ers
Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Vikings 16
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