Where Would Caleb Williams Rank Among Top NFL Draft QB Prospects of Last 10 Years?
Caleb Williams is still chasing Pac-12 and national championships, but USC's star quarterback is also the highest-rated prospect of the 2024 NFL draft class.
At this point of the 2023 season, we've seen the best and worst of the 21-year-old. He ripped through September in impressive fashion but opened October with a couple of underwhelming days. But those disappointments are simply two pieces of a strong overall scouting report.
In fact, Williams is challenging former Clemson star Trevor Lawrence for the best resume in the last decade.
The entire order—from which players are included and their placements to Williams' spot—is subjective. But it's a straightforward overview of how he compares to other QBs since the 2014 cycle.
Keep in mind that the list is based on how highly valued of a prospect each guy was entering the draft, and not on how their NFL career has panned out.
Honorable mentions: Jared Goff (2016), Justin Herbert (2020), Trey Lance (2021), Bryce Young (2023), C.J. Stroud (2023), Drake Maye (2024*)
8. Baker Mayfield, but Take Your Pick (2018)
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My personal order started with Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, followed by Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold. Some good thinking there, some not so good.
The main takeaway, though, is the 2018 class produced a handful of high-value quarterback prospects.
It feels like a disservice to only mention one. Still, the leading spot belonged to Mayfield, who displayed a quick delivery with superb arm strength and consistently made sound decisions in a QB-friendly offense at Oklahoma. He won a Heisman Trophy and guided the Sooners to three straight Big 12 titles.
The biggest negatives were below-average stature and some obnoxious moments on and off the field. But a few years in the NFL and some gained maturity could fix that—as it did.
Unfortunately for Mayfield, he's fallen reasonably shy of that pre-draft billing and bounced around the NFL lately. On the other hand, unlike Rosen and Darnold, he's certainly not a bust.
7. Jameis Winston (2015)
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As a redshirt freshman in 2013, Jameis Winston propelled Florida State to a national title and won a Heisman. He didn't perform as well in 2014 but still looked like a high-upside passer if his decisions could be refined.
While at FSU, he played in an NFL-style offense and showed encouraging levels of arm strength, anticipation and touch.
Winston sometimes checked the "doing too much" box in his second year as a starter, but his blend of arm talent, toughness and adequate evasiveness in the pocket made him a top prospect.
Similar to Mayfield, he was nowhere close to a bust, yet he never matched the franchise QB hopes. In five seasons and 70 starts with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he threw 88 interceptions. Tampa only posted one winning record in his tenure.
Winston has since hung around the league as a quality backup for the New Orleans Saints.
6. Justin Fields (2021)
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The ability to run a true NFL offense stood as a reasonable concern on Justin Fields' scouting report. He dealt with a habit of sticking on the first read of his progression too long.
From a skill perspective, though, he had everything.
Quick, repeatable mechanics led to good arm strength and accuracy all over the field. Additionally, his mobility and toughness were terrific complementary traits, rounding out an appealing resume that featured two Big Ten titles for Ohio State.
Fields slipped to the Chicago Bears at No. 11 in the 2021 draft behind BYU's Zach Wilson and North Dakota State's Trey Lance.
His future in the Windy City has also become a question because the Bears may hold the No. 1 overall pick—whether their own or the Carolina Panthers' slot—in 2024 and Williams is likely NFL-bound.
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5. Marcus Mariota (2015)
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Following a prolific career at Oregon, Marcus Mariota looked like the next great dual-threat prospect.
He ran a very QB-friendly offense yet rarely made a mistake with the Ducks, tossing only 14 interceptions in 1,167 attempts. He drew praise for using his mobility to scramble, yes, but also his ability to manipulate the pocket, extend plays and throw on the run.
Factor in his snappy mechanics and plus accuracy, and Mariota had the makeup of a future superstar.
Well, not so much.
He helped the Tennessee Titans reach the playoffs in 2017 but soon fizzled and lost his job to Ryan Tannehill in 2019. Although he started 13 games for the Atlanta Falcons in 2022, Mariota's performance didn't suggest his role should be more than a priority backup.
4. Tua Tagovailoa (2020)
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Entering the 2020 draft, Tua Tagovailoa faced legitimate concerns about his injury history and questionable arm strength.
The good far outweighed the bad, however. He showed off incredible touch to Alabama's star-filled receiving corps, along with outstanding anticipation and decent mobility. The southpaw processed defenses and went through his reads at an NFL level, too.
As long as he landed with a coaching staff that atoned for his unspectacular velocity, Tagovailoa could be a star.
It didn't happen immediately, though, and he endured two inefficient seasons with the Miami Dolphins to start his career. However, head coach Mike McDaniel's arrival in 2022 has unleashed an MVP-caliber player.
An injury red flag still follows Tagovailoa—his recent concussions are a serious concern—but his upside is on full display.
3. Joe Burrow (2020)
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Joe Burrow merely put together the single-most impressive season by a quarterback in college football history.
The best part? We didn't see it coming.
Together with Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr., Burrow completed an absurd 76.3 percent of his passes at 10.8 yards per attempt with LSU. He racked up 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns to six interceptions, capping a 15-0 campaign with SEC and national titles.
He lacked ideal arm strength, but that was basically it. He looked comfortable in the pocket and dangerous outside of it, particularly because he often extended plays to throw and not only to run. He quickly went through progressions, and his accuracy was elite.
Save for a rough start to an injury-affected 2023, Burrow has lived up to the hype for the Cincinnati Bengals. He led them to the Super Bowl in 2021 and finished fourth in MVP voting in 2022.
2. Caleb Williams (2024*)
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Caleb Williams holds the option to return to USC in 2024 but is heavily expected to declare for the draft.
For me, the lone prospect above him in the last decade is Trevor Lawrence. Williams has not matched Lawrence's pre-draft hype—which started in his freshman year and persisted with no hesitation, a notable point as Williams works to hold off North Carolina's Drake Maye.
But let's avoid missing the point: This means Williams is the second-best prospect of the decade. His arm talent is spectacular, and he's an electric playmaker with his feet.
That's pretty freaking special.
Williams doesn't have ideal size at 6'1". He's prone to bailing out of the pocket too quickly when blocking isn't reliable that day. Those concerns are real and drop him ever-so-narrowly behind Lawrence, but they are also overshadowed by Williams' numerous strengths.
1. Trevor Lawrence (2021)
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If you designed a quarterback in a laboratory, you'd basically be trying to clone Trevor Lawrence.
Entering the NFL, he stood nearly 6'6" (with space to build muscle on a slender frame) and possessed elite arm strength and accuracy. His footwork and mechanics were excellent. He could handle designed runs and would glide in the open field.
Progressions, toughness, leadership, on and on—Lawrence had a near-flawless scouting report.
Three seasons into his career with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Clemson product is off to a brilliant start—despite Urban Meyer's best (worst?) efforts in Lawrence's rookie year.
Lawrence guided the Jags to an AFC South championship and a playoff win in 2022, and he also finished seventh in MVP voting.
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