Predicting When 2023's Eliminated Teams Will Make the MLB Playoffs Again
For 12 of Major League Baseball's 30 franchises, the dream of a 2023 World Series is still alive and well.
However, that leaves 18 teams already hoping that things will work out better for them in 2024.
And based on a combination of contract situations, farm systems, market size and just general (in)competency by upper management in recent years, several of those fanbases might want to hunker down for what could be a lengthy drought before the next trip to the playoffs.
The 18 teams have been broken up into tiers of when we think they'll make it back to the postseason.
A good chunk are looking good for next season, and half of them should be in good shape no later than 2025.
If you're a Rockies fan, though, please let us know where to send our condolences.
Teams That Should Make the Playoffs in 2024
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Boston Red Sox
Life in the AL East certainly isn't a picnic, making it plausible that Boston is considerably better next season yet still finishes in fourth place in the division.
However, the Red Sox had some legitimate breakouts this season in Brayan Bello, Triston Casas, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, while Masataka Yoshida proved to be every bit as good as advertised.
They aren't losing much of anything to free agency and will probably need to add at least one more starting pitcher—lest they be forced to bank on Chris Sale making 32 starts—but give them a healthy season of Trevor Story with Marcelo Mayer as potentially next year's midseason call-up extraordinaire, and they'll be back in the postseason mix.
Chicago Cubs
The good news for the Cubs is that of the nine team leaders in bWAR, the only one hitting free agency before the 2026-27 offseason is Cody Bellinger, who will be a free agent this offseason unless he inexplicably agrees to come back on a $12 million mutual option.
The bad news is that's a pretty big loss. They're also likely going to lose Marcus Stroman and Jeimer Candelario. And none of the six NL teams that made the playoffs this year looks particularly destined to get any worse. (Los Angeles is losing a ton, but it still has Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and a ridiculous amount of money to spend.)
After almost making it this year, though, the Cubs should be right back in the mix in 2024.
Cleveland Guardians
While the Minnesota Twins aren't exactly destined to drop off the map heading into next season, they do have a few key players hitting free agency, most notably among them Sonny Gray. And it's not like the Twins were a force of nature this season, almost winning the AL Central by default.
In other words, the door is ajar for someone else to win the division in 2024, and after breaking in a ton of rookies this season, Cleveland should be that team.
The only players the Guardians are losing as free agents are those they scooped up from waivers a few weeks ago (Lucas Giolito etc.). With any luck, Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie will be healthier on the mound in 2024, and they'll add at least one free agent who can hit the occasional home run.
That would probably be enough to get them back over the hump.
San Diego Padres
It's a massive disappointment that San Diego didn't make the postseason this year, particularly while posting one of the 10 best run differentials in the majors.
And replacing Blake "presumed NL Cy Young winner" Snell and Josh "elite for three outs but don't even think about asking me for four outs" Hader as departing free agents won't be a walk in the park.
Still, it was never "2023 World Series or Bust" for the Padres. They were expensively constructed to win at least one title at some point in the 2023-28 window with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish all signed to long-term deals.
They might want to get it done next year before Juan Soto reaches free agency, though.
Seattle Mariners
Let's keep this one short and sweet, yeah?
Aside from Teoscar Hernández and a back-up catcher (Tom Murphy), Seattle brings back everyone from the team that had one of the best records in the majors from July 1 onward. There's also a good chance it will get Robbie Ray back at some point next summer after he made just one start before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Heading into the season, the Mariners were one of the top 10 candidates to make the World Series. Should be the same again next March.
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Maybe They Make It in 2024, but Probably by 2025
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Chicago White Sox
Say this much for the White Sox: They intend to contend again by 2025.
They traded away a ton of guys who would have hit free agency either this November or next winter, but they held onto their long-term nucleus of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Throw in Michael Kopech, Andrew Benintendi and closer Gregory Santos, and that's quite the starting point for competing in two seasons.
The overall state of the farm system isn't great, but Chicago did restock in a big way during its fire sale, adding Edgar Quero, Jake Eder, Nick Nastrini and Ky Bush—a catcher and three pitchers who rank top-10 in their farm and who could all be key contributors by 2025.
They'll need to figure out their 2B/SS/3B situation before they can be taken seriously, but at least from a "contracts expiring by then" perspective, they should have the funds to swing big for the likes of Alex Bregman, Willy Adames and/or Gleyber Torres during the 2024-25 offseason.
But we'll see if they want to invest in winning one before Cease hits free agency in November 2025.
New York Yankees
With the exception of Gerrit Cole, this season was a disaster for the Yankees.
Their big offseason pickup (Carlos Rodón) didn't make his debut until July and was a hot mess anyway. Aaron Judge missed almost 60 games and couldn't shoulder the load alone anyway, as he and Gleyber Torres were the only Yankees who made at least 50 plate appearances with an OPS of .730 or better. Nestor Cortes was a shell of the man who dominated on the mound in 2021 and 2022. Luis Severino had just about the worst WAR in all of baseball...
And they still posted a winning record and only missed the playoffs by a handful of games.
They'll probably be back in the hunt for an AL East title next season. However, let's see how their offseason shakes out first, because this team needs a serious makeover.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants didn't miss the 2023 postseason by all that much. But between losing Joc Pederson and Alex Wood, likely losing Michael Conforto ($18 million player option) and probably needing to pay both Ross Stripling ($15 million player option) and Sean Manaea ($15 million player option) eight figures each, next season could be rough.
That said, they are set up nicely for the long term with a lot of young talent. They've got Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr. and both Taylor and Tyler Rogers under team control through at least 2025, Thairo Estrada through 2026, Logan Webb and Camilo Doval through 2027, and service clocks just getting started on the likes of Patrick Bailey, Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano and Luis Matos.
Between that nucleus and the money they'll have freeing up both this offseason and next, they'll be in good place to really go for it two years from now.
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee is probably going to win the NL Central again in 2024, but the Brew Crew's window could be slamming shut after that with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and others hitting free agency 13 months from now.
And by then, perhaps St. Louis will have its pitching predicament figured out.
Goodness knows the Cardinals did what they could to expedite this semi-rebuild by trading away Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton and Paul DeJong.
Two of the pitchers acquired in those moves (Drew Rom and John King) are already in the majors. Two others (Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse) may well be big leaguers by 2025. And they're certainly hoping Matthew Liberatore will be a borderline ace by then.
The Cardinals are slated to lose Paul Goldschmidt after 2024, but the offense should be in a good place as a whole.
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Reaching the Postseason by 2026 Is Reasonable
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Cincinnati Reds
It is, admittedly, harsh to kick Cincinnati's postseason forecast this far down the road after it entered the next-to-last day of the regular season with a playoff pulse.
And we are all the way in on these young position players. Many of them arrived well ahead of schedule this year, but the Reds had seven players in their age-28 or younger season rack up at least 10 home runs and at least 10 stolen bases. Tampa Bay (five) was the only other team with more than four such players.
That doesn't even include Tyler Stephenson at catcher, first baseman of the future Christian Encarnacion-Strand or late-season call-up Noelvi Marte, either.
This legitimately could be a top-five offense as early as 2024.
However, the pitching staff needs a lot of work.
Hunter Greene could be an ace, but the flame-thrower has already had a tough time staying healthy and merely has a 4.56 ERA thus far in his career. Andrew Abbott got out to a great start for the first two months of his MLB career, but he hasn't been remotely the same since late July. Connor Phillips has great potential, but we'll see how that September call-up pans out over the next few years.
All told, the pitching staff was no better than it was during last year's 100-loss mess, and goodness knows Cincinnati's ownership will be reluctant to spend money to fix that problem via external means.
New York Mets
While the Mets weren't explicitly saying "We won't be competing again until 2026" by trading away Justin Verlander, that's kind of what he and Max Scherzer were seeing in their crystal balls when they agreed to waive their no-trade clauses to join the wild AL West.
Of course, the big unknown with the Mets is whether owner Steve Cohen will be patient enough to let this thing germinate for a few years before throwing a ton of money at it again.
Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga and Edwin Díaz are all signed through at least 2027. There's tantalizing young talent already at the MLB level in Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio. Plus they restocked the farm system at the trade deadline, setting them up to be really good again by 2026.
But if they go out and get Shohei Ohtani this offseason or re-sign Pete Alonso (one year of arbitration eligibility remaining) to a massive deal, maybe that pushes up their "Postseason or Bust" urgency to a 2025 deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh making the postseason by 2025 is feasible. That's the Pirates' last season before presumably losing Mitch Keller to free agency, and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could be sitting alongside Keller in the starting rotation by then.
But 2026 might be the sweet spot for the team with two stars (Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes) signed through at least 2029 to go along with one of the sport's best farm systems.
Both Reynolds and Hayes should at least still be on the tail end of their primes three seasons from now, while potential studs like Skenes, Termarr Johnson, Endy Rodriguez, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Tucupita Marcano, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski could just be hitting their stride.
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Playoff Team in the Next Half-Decade? Sure, Why Not?
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Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals
Who knows what the American League looks like as a whole 3-5 years from now?
Maybe there will be room in the postseason field for both of these AL Central squads in 2026, even though this division has now gone five consecutive 162-game seasons without producing a wild-card team.
But three or four years from now is where both of these rebuilding-since-2017 franchises could finally turn a corner.
They both have a budding ace under team control for at least another few years in Tarik Skubal (Detroit) and Cole Ragans (Kansas City). Bobby Witt Jr. has emerged as a serious star for the Royals in just his second season in the bigs.
Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are getting there as well for the Tigers, although the latter is already getting a Byron Buxton-like reputation for being injury-prone.
If forced to make an official proclamation on which one gets back to the postseason first, I'd have to go with the Tigers. They were certainly the better team this year, they're finally getting out from under Miguel Cabrera's franchise-crippling contract this offseason, and they have the drastically better/more top-heavy farm system.
It's going to hurt Detroit when Javier Báez inevitably exercises his player option for another four years and $98 million this offseason, but it shouldn't bury the Tigers.
Still, we'll see which AL Central team does a better job of completing its decade-long reconstruction project.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals were kind of quietly much better than expected, hitting the over on their preseason win total on August 25.
Lane Thomas blossomed into a borderline All-Star. CJ Abrams had a sensational second half of the season. Keibert Ruiz had a breakout year from a slugging perspective. And between Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore, they should have two solid arms in the starting rotation through at least 2027.
But what comes next?
They have two stud outfielders at Double-A Harrisburg in Dylan Crews and James Wood, and 2020 first-round pick Cade Cavalli could be a solid No. 3 starter when he comes back from Tommy John surgery.
However, there's not much else beyond that down on the farm, and even less budgetary wiggle room as the bills come due on those back-loaded contracts GM Mike Rizzo loved so dearly a few years ago.
In 2025 alone, they'll be paying $60 million to Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, none of whom will actually throw a pitch for them. By 2027, it drops to "just" $41.7 million of dead money per year, but that's still ridiculous.
There's a chance this rebuild comes together by 2028, though.
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Hey, Anything Could Happen by 2030, Right?
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Los Angeles Angels
The Angels haven't made the postseason since 2014, but they haven't even begun to bottom out.
They are presumably going to lose one generational superstar (Shohei Ohtani) this offseason, and there has been a lot of hot air lately about possibly trading away their other one (Mike Trout).
But what can they realistically expect to get for Trout, who has missed more than half of their games over the past three seasons and who is still owed $260 million for the next seven years? They also owe Anthony Rendon $115.7 million over the next three seasons for what has been a bunch of injuries and minimal production over the past three years.
The pitching staff is full of mediocrity, and the farm system is in shambles after they decided to go all-in on winning this season—and failed miserably in the process—by trading away what few top prospects they had.
It would be irresponsible to declare that a team absolutely will not make the postseason at any point in the next seven years. But if the Angels don't trade Trout to an actual contender, I don't see him getting back to the playoffs before he retires.
Oakland Athletics
The "you've got to be freaking kidding me" part about Oakland's painful rebuilding process is that this is still one of the worst current farm systems.
Per MLB.com, the A's don't have any top 75 prospects and only one in the top 100.
Granted, that's at least partially because they've been letting their "next generation" cut its teeth at the big league level this season. Zack Gelof has been great at second base since getting called up at the All-Star Break. Mason Miller looked like a breakout pitching star prior to spending four months on the IL. Others such as Ken Waldichuk, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers have "graduated" after previously being viewed as top-100 prospects.
Still, after embracing the MLB basement with open arms in trading away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Sean Manaea, Sean Murphy, Cole Irvin, A.J. Puk, Cristian Pache, Shintaro Fujinami, Jace Peterson and Sam Moll (and I might have missed a few), they don't exactly have much to show for it.
The Houston Astros were able to pretty quickly recover from their three-year tank job a decade ago, but at least they bottomed out when they were guaranteed to get top picks. With MLB's new lottery system, the A's could be a disaster for the next five years and not make another top-five pick during that time.
And that just leaves...
I Mean, Seriously, What Are We Even Doing Here?
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Colorado Rockies
Despite a 2023 payroll greater than that of Kansas City and Oakland combined, Colorado hit triple digits in losses for the first time in what was already an uninspiring franchise history.
Pitching in Denver has always been a major challenge, but of the 10 Rockies to make at least five starts this season, not one had a sub-5.00 ERA. And of the top 12 prospects in this farm system, per MLB.com, the only pitcher is their 2023 first-round pick, Chase Dollander.
They had a couple of breakout hitters this year in Nolan Jones and Ezequiel Tovar, but those guys can't possibly make up for a pitching staff that is terrible with no realistic end in sight.
Even if Kris Bryant can get and stay healthy for the half-decade left on his $182 million contract, Colorado needs so much more than that to amount to anything any time soon.
And, really, how much do they need to improve in order to legitimately contend in the NL West—where the Dodgers will always have money to burn, where the Padres aren't going away any time soon, and where the Diamondbacks are just at the start of what could be an impressive half-decade run?
The only upside here is that at least the Rockies have indisputably the best City Connect jerseys released thus far. So, a few times per year, at least they'll look pretty cool while floundering through what figures to be quite a few more fourth- and fifth-place finishes in the division.
