1 Reason Every NFL Team Shouldn't Be Overlooked in 2023
We're still there. Still in that "everybody technically has a chance" period of the NFL offseason, where injuries are less of a factor than they soon inevitably will be, and where it's easy to see the upside related to offseason moves by all 32 front offices.
Rookie growing pains haven't popped up, rashes of injuries haven't really taken place and most locker rooms remain relatively harmonious.
That will of course all change, but for now it gives us an opportunity to consider why each team shouldn't be overlooked in 2023.
AFC East
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Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen is still ascending
The 27-year-old star quarterback has gotten better in each of his five seasons, and the numbers reflect that in terms of his approximate value (AV) at Pro Football Reference. We still don't know what the peak is for a top-three MVP vote-getter in 2020 and 2022. This could certainly be his and Buffalo's year.
Miami Dolphins: Tua and Tyreek could be unstoppable
Tua Tagovailoa was remarkably efficient as the league's highest-rated passer in his first season running Mike McDaniel's offense, and McDaniel himself now says Tyreek Hill is "night and day ahead of where he was last year." Tua has also been healthy this offseason so far. If that combo can build significantly on 2022's production, the Dolphins can win the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick
And if anyone can pull a talented first-round quarterback out of a sophomore slump in Year 3, it's Belichick in combination with returning offensive guru Bill O'Brien.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers has something to prove
More so than in his final seasons with the Green Bay Packers, the aging legend appears to know that this is his last chance to respond to doubters. Rodgers has proved to be sensitive to outside criticism and looks determined to do everything in his power to avoid retiring as "an extremely well decorated quarterback who made just one Super Bowl."
AFC North
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Baltimore Ravens: The Todd Monken factor
It's fair to wonder if Lamar Jackson has plateaued since winning MVP in 2019, or if he can stay healthy following two seasons that ended with him injured. But Jackson is still an incredibly unique talent at the age of 26, and now he has a fresh start under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. If Monken can scheme things right for Jackson and Co. in 2023, the sky will be the limit in Baltimore.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow is also still ascending
Like Allen, Burrow is a 26-year-old perennial MVP candidate with playoff success under his belt who has improved each season (documented also by his AV numbers). Throw in that he now has an improved offensive line with Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle and this could absolutely be the year for Burrow and the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns: Finally a full season for Deshaun Watson
It's the quarterback's first since 2020. Let's not forget what he did before that. He's still just 27 years old and is the third-highest-rated qualified passer in NFL history. With a quality offensive line and quite a lot of defensive talent, there's no telling what Cleveland could do with Watson back on track.
Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick
There might not be a defense in football with a three-headed monster possessing as much talent as this one. This unit has the ability to dominate enough to allow quarterback Kenny Pickett and the offense time and space for growth and mistakes.
AFC South
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Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans, C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. can be game-changers
The exciting new head coach and his rookie primo first-round picks probably can't turn the team around in one offseason, but that fresh talent and thinking could make the Texans competitive in a soft division.
Indianapolis Colts: You never know with Anthony Richardson
The floor might be lower early on for a rookie quarterback who appears to have work to do, but the ceiling is also incredibly high, and there's an element of surprise factor for him and new Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Don't forget this team, with many key players from today's roster, was quite competitive in 2020 and 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars: It's all coming together for Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson
Lawrence posted a triple-digit passer rating as the Jaguars won each of their last five regular-season games of 2022 before shocking the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. With a full year under his belt with Pederson, Lawrence looks prime to explode in his third NFL season as the Jags keep climbing in 2023.
Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry can cover up a lot of blemishes
Does he still have that ability? And can he do so with a Titans team that sure appears to be entering a rebuild? Those questions remain unanswered, but we've learned it's foolish to look past Mike Vrabel's Titans with a transformative offensive weapon like Henry in the backfield.
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AFC West
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Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson and Sean Payton could very well be a magical combo
Wilson was adjusting to a new offense and a failed head coach during what might have been an aberrational down 2022 season in Denver. Now, the nine-time Pro Bowler should benefit greatly from the presence of a fellow Super Bowl winner and offensive mastermind in Payton. Don't be surprised if those two team up to give the Kansas City Chiefs a run for their money in this division. Oh, and keep in mind that based on Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost formula, the Broncos were impacted by injuries more than anybody else in the league last season. The law of averages might also thus be on their side in 2023.
Kansas City Chiefs: They've made three of the last four Super Bowls
Let's be real, nobody is overlooking a Chiefs team that is the odds-on favorite to win yet another championship in 2023. Not with Patrick Mahomes under center.
Las Vegas Raiders: Somewhat quietly, Jimmy Garoppolo was the NFC's highest-rated qualified passer last season
And for now, it appears the new Raiders quarterback has a clean bill of health following offseason foot surgery. Remember, this was a playoff team just a year-and-a-half ago.
Los Angeles Chargers: Kellen Moore can take Justin Herbert's game to the next level
According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley believes Herbert's having the best training camp he's had in three seasons. The entire Chargers offense appears to be in a great spot with Moore in the fold. If Herbert can take another big step, this team can contend.
NFC East
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Dallas Cowboys: The ingredients are all there
Franchise quarterback Dak Prescott missed five games and the offense was crushed by injuries in general in 2022, but the Cowboys still ranked sixth in total DVOA and fifth in point differential while winning 12 games. Imagine how high the ceiling is with Prescott healthy and key additions Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore and Mazi Smith contributing...
New York Giants: Daniel Jones' approximate value skyrocketed in 2022
In fact, it more than doubled for the now-26-year-old, now-extremely rich franchise quarterback. You're allowed to remain concerned about Jones' ability to become a star, but there's no denying he made significant progress in his fourth season and he's got plenty of offensive support entering Year 5.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Georgia trio
It's hard not to be fired up about Philly's defense with Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo coming on board via the draft. But the key theme here is Howie Roseman and Co. did a hell of a job limiting damage and compensating for veteran departures this offseason. They remain the NFC's Super Bowl favorite for good reason.
Washington Commanders: Chase Young is healthy and determined
That could be huge for a team that is already loaded with talent on defense and has plenty of skill on offense despite obvious questions at quarterback. If they're right about Sam Howell, the Commanders could win this division.
NFC North
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Chicago Bears: Justin Fields has no limits
Coming off an absurd season on the ground and with plenty of room for growth as a passer, Fields is already one of the most unique offensive talents in the sport. Still just 24, there's no reason he can't follow a path like Lamar Jackson's in 2023 and beyond. At the very least, he's got a lot more support than he did while breaking out in 2022.
Detroit Lions: They're coming off their best season since 1997
That's based on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, which is one of the most respected and telling advanced stats in the game. The breakout 2022 Lions ranked ninth in that category for the first time in a quarter-century. In the process, they also won five of their last six regular-season games. If Jared Goff really is putting it together, they could do a lot of damage this season.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love has "complete command" of the offense
That's straight from head coach Matt LaFleur. A fresh start post-Aaron Rodgers could be what the doctor ordered for a Packers team that may have been burdened by Rodgers' drama in recent years. At least there's an element of unknown now.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins has serious weapons
Cousins might not have a lot of rope left, and we don't know for sure what rookie first-round receiver Jordan Addison has in him. But we do know Cousins can be elite when he gets rolling, and if Addison can step it up early in support of Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, that offense could be fire.
NFC South
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Atlanta Falcons: The pieces are there for Desmond Ridder
The Falcons are gambling that Ridder can emerge from the third round of last year's draft to become a franchise quarterback. At the very least, they've given him some enticing weapons. In addition to possessing one of the best offensive lines in the game, Atlanta now has a shiny new back in rookie first-rounder Bijan Robinson alongside 2022 rookie standout receiver Drake London. If they're right about Ridder, they can win this wide-open division.
Carolina Panthers: The pieces are there for Bryce Young
It's a similar situation in Carolina, except Young is a rookie No. 1 overall pick, the Panthers have more offensive experience with Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr. and Miles Sanders on board, and new head coach Frank Reich is one of the sport's top offensive minds. Don't be shocked if Carolina is extremely competitive right out of the gate in a new era.
New Orleans Saints: The defense remains extremely talented, and they're more stable under center
Even in a down year, the Saints defense was a top-10 DVOA unit in 2022. Now, while new quarterback Derek Carr may not be a superstar, he at least brings plenty of experience and consistency to the offense. It's possible a fresh setting will bring out the best of him, as has been the case with plenty of veteran quarterbacks over the years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Key Super Bowl vets like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett remain on the roster
Boy, is it hard to find a silver lining with some teams.
NFC West
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Arizona Cardinals: Any given Sunday...
The very reason the Cardinals shouldn't be overlooked is because they're an NFL team and we know how unpredictable this league is. The Cardinals are awful, but at least one point this season a competitive team is going to get caught looking beyond them on the schedule. Kyler Murray and Co. can absolutely play spoiler.
Los Angeles Rams: Despite all of the turnover, four dudes remain present
Their names are Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. They're all Super Bowl champions and when they're at their best there's often nobody better at their respective positions. Don't count 'em out.
San Francisco 49ers: With Brock Purdy as their primary quarterback, they're 8-0
You can tell that head coach Kyle Shanahan believes he has something special in the 2022 seventh-round pick, and there's little doubt the supporting cast is there. Plus, in case of emergency, former first-round picks Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are also on the roster.
Seattle Seahawks: Following a top-10 DVOA season, they made obvious improvements on both sides of the ball
It's entirely possible that if Geno Smith really is a successful late-bloomer, guys like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner, Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon put them over the top.
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