10 Bold Predictions for the 2023 NFL Season
Training camp is underway, meaning the start of the 2023 NFL season will be here before you know it. It's a perfect time to look into the future, surmising what the months ahead might bring for the league.
Rather than make some boring predictions that things will remain at the status quo in 2023, here are some bold—yet still realistic—projections for the season ahead.
These predictions range from perennial contenders finally regressing, teams on the playoff fringes breaking through, new records being set and awards being earned by relatively unexpected sources.
With that in mind, let's look into the crystal ball.
Detroit Lions Will Boast the NFL's No. 1 Offense
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The Detroit Lions nearly made the playoffs last season despite being hamstrung by an abysmal start and a woeful defense. Their offense was the catalyst for a stark midseason turnaround, one that saw the club finish with a winning record after coming out of the gate with six losses in seven games. The squad now heads into 2023 with momentum from that 8-2 run.
While Detroit's defense has seen some improvements—most notably a revamp of the cornerback position—after it allowed the most yards and third-most points in the league last year, the offense will remain the driving force of this franchise. Jared Goff has emerged as a strong quarterback in the Motor City, a development that has helped turn Amon-Ra St. Brown into one of the NFL's best wideouts.
The passing attack has been bolstered by the return of former Lion Marvin Jones Jr. and the selection of second-round tight end Sam LaPorta, who should fill the void created by the midseason departure of T.J. Hockenson. While 2022 first-round wideout Jameson Williams was hit with a six-game gambling suspension, he's a prime candidate to make a Year 2 leap after missing most of his rookie season with injury.
The biggest changes in Detroit's offense came at running back. The team's backfield platoon was good last year—Jamaal Williams led the NFL by a wide margin with 17 touchdowns and D'Andre Swift was a playmaker when healthy—but the two veterans are now gone. They've been replaced by David Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs, who has the potential to become one of the league's best backs early in his career.
If the Goff-St. Brown battery continues to shine and Gibbs is as dynamic as advertised, the Lions will have the league's No. 1 offense in 2023.
New York Jets Will Rank No. 1 on Defense
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The New York Jets are ready to make a statement. Thanks to some high-profile pickups, this team is poised to end the league's longest active playoff drought—which began in 2010—this coming season. While New York emerged as a dangerous defensive squad last year, it's a strong contender to rank No. 1 this year after keeping its core intact while adding new pieces like first-round edge-rusher Will McDonald IV and veteran defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson.
No player will have more of an impact on New York's defense than Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer represents a massive upgrade over Zach Wilson at the quarterback spot and will make the Jets competent on that side of the ball for the first time in years. Despite the offense constantly stalling out—the Jets had the fourth-worst time of possession last year—the defense still managed to finish 2022 ranked No. 4 in both total and scoring defense.
This group kept New York in contention for much of the campaign and willed it to a 7-10 finish with an offense that was only putting up a meager 17.4 points per game. With Gang Green's offense finally able to move the ball and eat up clock, it will allow the defense to get some much-needed rest and have better starting field position. Expect the Jets to capitalize on this and emerge as the league's top defense in most major categories.
Tennessee Titans Will Embrace a Full Rebuild by Trade Deadline
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After going from the AFC's No. 1 seed in 2021 to missing the playoffs entirely in 2022, the Tennessee Titans are stuck waffling between trying to make another run with their current crop of veterans and blowing things up to start a rebuild. The moves this organization have made have been conflicting and show a lack of direction from the top down.
For instance, the team used Day 2 picks on quarterbacks in each of the last two drafts but still plans to forge ahead with a fading Ryan Tannehill as its opening day starter in 2023. It released stalwart left tackle Taylor Lewan to save money but used that cap savings to give a $13 million annually to DeAndre Hopkins, an aging wideout who hasn't had an elite campaign since 2020.
While Derrick Henry still mustered a ridiculous 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, he missed over half the 2021 campaign with injury and is battling Father Time as he enters his age-29 season. His yards-per-carry average already dropped almost a full yard from his two Pro Bowl campaigns in 2019 and 2020—a stretch in which he posted 5.2 yards per carry—and 2021 and 22, when he averaged 4.4 yards per tote.
This organization seems a tad rudderless right now, an issue that new general manager Ran Carthon should clear up by the trade deadline. If the Titans continue to struggle—a likely scenario given their lack of game-changing offseason acquisitions—they will be sellers at the trade deadline, stockpiling picks and young assets to jump-start a rebuild with.
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Houston Texans Will Be Surprise Playoff Contenders
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No team had a more transformative offseason than the Houston Texans. After churning through three retreads in the three seasons since Bill O'Brien was fired, the team finally seems to have found a competent head coach in DeMeco Ryans. The former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator and Texans linebacker will provide the spark on the sidelines that this club has sorely lacked in recent years.
Hiring Ryans wasn't the only major move that Houston pulled off during the offseason. The organization swung for the fences near the top of the 2023 draft, first selecting its quarterback of the future in C.J. Stroud at No. 2 overall and then immediately trading up to No. 3 to acquire a potential generational edge-rusher in Will Anderson Jr. The two will serve as foundational pieces for this roster to build around for years to come.
The Texans also brought in some experienced veterans on the open market. Dalton Schultz gives the team the reliable pass-catching tight end it has been missing, providing Stroud with a big safety net he can lean on to move the chains and find the end zone early in his career. Devin Singletary will add a veteran edge to the backfield, pairing with the up-and-coming Dameon Pierce to form one of the better one-two running back punches in the league.
Defensively, Houston got much better after signing players like Jimmie Ward, Shaq Griffin, Sheldon Rankins and Denzel Perryman. Ward was a big score for the Texans, as he'll shore up the secondary with his elite run defense and quality coverage skills. These additions will augment a young core that should only get better with more experience in 2023.
The Texans may not be a Super Bowl team just yet, but they'll make more noise than many expect this coming year and contend for a playoff spot.
Arizona Cardinals Post the League's First 0-17 Record
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The Arizona Cardinals are a mess right now. After a wildly disappointing 4-13 finish in 2022, the team decided to bulldoze most of its foundation and start fresh. It started by parting ways with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and general manager Steve Keim, replacing them with Jonathan Gannon and Monti Ossenfort, respectively. While the new regime has some promise, it has its work cut out trying to turn this squad into a contending one.
The Cardinals bled out proven talent during the offseason. The club finally cut its losses with DeAndre Hopkins, releasing the once-great wideout after three seasons—the last two of which were marred by injuries and suspensions. Defensive end Zach Allen and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr.—the team's top free agents—both signed elsewhere. None of the team's veteran acquisitions moved the needle, with linebacker Kyzir White and guard Will Hernandez being the most notable pickups.
Arizona may have drafted relatively well, but it didn't get the type of game-changing talents needed to field a competitive roster. The club added a potential franchise tackle at No. 6 overall in Paris Johnson Jr. and secured some promising defensive pieces in edge BJ Ojulari and cornerback Garrett Williams on Day 2, but these prospects won't be enough to contend.
The biggest issue the Cardinals will face this season is a potentially extensive absence from star quarterback Kyler Murray. The 2019 Rookie of the Year had his 2022 campaign ended with a torn ACL and may not return until the midpoint of the season if he even does at all. Updates on his rehab have been infrequent, with the most recent being a comment by Gannon in June that the signal-caller is still a "long way away" from getting back into the lineup.
With NFL Media's Ian Rapoport revealing Murray is planning to "take his time until this thing is 100 percent right" and Arizona almost certainly set to struggle without him, there's no reason to rush the quarterback back into action. Given a 36-year-old Colt McCoy—who threw one touchdown against three interceptions in his four appearances for the Cardinals last year—and rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune are the backup options for this club, the league's first 0-17 campaign may just be on the horizon.
Trevor Lawrence Will Win the NFL MVP Award
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Trevor Lawrence was selected at the top of the 2021 draft due to his potential to become a generational passer. Now entering his third year in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback appears ready to finally deliver on that promise.
While Lawrence got off to a slow start in the NFL, factors beyond his control largely led to him struggling for the first time in his football career. The Clemson product was inconsistent at best while playing for a dysfunctional squad led by head coach Urban Meyer, who didn't even last a full season before being fired. The addition of Doug Pederson ahead of the 2022 season changed everything for Lawrence, resulting in the signal-caller not only leading the Jags to the playoffs, but also winning a Wild Card Round game after pulling off one of the largest comebacks in league history.
Lawrence earned the first of potentially many Pro Bowl nods after he improved his numbers across the board last year. He went from completing less than 60 percent of his passes for 3,641 yards and 12 touchdowns with 17 interceptions to connecting on over two-thirds of his throws for 4,113 yards and 25 scores against eight interceptions. He did this despite having a relatively pedestrian receiving corps, a unit that could be vastly improved in 2023 thanks to the addition of Calvin Ridley.
If Ridley can return to the form he displayed between 2018 and 2020 with the Atlanta Falcons, Lawrence should thrive. At his best, Ridley is an elite pass-catcher who racked up 90 receptions for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns while playing in an offense that also featured a target sponge in Julio Jones. He'll now team with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to form a dangerous group of wideouts who Lawrence will be able to dissect defenses with.
Lawrence was already looking like an MVP candidate down the stretch last season. If he can continue that trajectory with better weapons surrounding him, he'll be taking home that hardware at the end of 2023.
Bijan Robinson Will Claim Two Major Honors
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With their selection of Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall, the Atlanta Falcons secured one of the most exciting running back prospects to enter the league in years. The Texas product is a rare blend of size, speed and athleticism, traits that will allow him to work as a three-down back in the NFL.
While Robinson would have thrived wherever he landed on draft day, the Falcons may have been the best possible fit for him. Due to a lack of quarterback talent, this offense will focus heavily on the ground game and should have no qualms about feeding Robinson as often and creatively as possible. He was the offensive engine for the Longhorns, generating an incredible 3,410 yards and 33 touchdowns on 539 carries during his three seasons in Austin. He was also a factor in the passing game, reeling in 60 passes for 805 yards and eight scores.
Robinson said that head coach Arthur Smith has plans to "coach him hard" and deploy him as far more than just a between-the-tackles rusher (per ESPN's Harry Lyles Jr.):
"He uses me everywhere, from receiver to running back. He lets me do my abilities and skill set the right way, whether it's catching the ball, running routes, obviously running the football, blocking and doing it all… I'm going to expect nothing less, because he has a plan for me with his coaching style and making sure that I'm doing the right thing on the field and always pushing myself to new limits, new heights, you know, I got to match that."
Although the Falcons already employed one of the league's more intriguing young backs in Tyler Allgeier—who had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie—his presence shouldn't limit Robinson much. Robinson showed he can excel with a talented backfield partner, having worked alongside fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson during his entire tenure at Texas.
Atlanta may have other elite and young skill-position talent with Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but Robinson will be the focal point of its offense—at least until the club unearths a franchise quarterback. Barring an unexpected leap from Desmond Ridder, expect Robinson to get a herculean amount of volume as a rookie and parlay that workload into both Offensive Rookie of the Year and NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards.
Tyreek Hill Will Break the Single-Season Receiving Record
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Tyreek Hill made headlines earlier this month when he made the bold proclamation that he would break the 2,000-yard receiving mark during an appearance on his own It Needed To Be Said podcast. The Miami Dolphins receiver believes he will become the first to ever reach that lofty number, breaking the previous high of 1,964 set by Calvin Johnson in 2012. Hill said that this is one of the few items left on his career bucket list along with winning a second Super Bowl ring.
While 2,000 yards is a lofty goal, Hill is well-positioned to reach it. He is still clearly in the prime of his career and coming off his best single-season performance yet, having recorded 119 catches for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns. While some believed he would regress without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the wideout thrived with Tua Tagovailoa targeting him—gaining nearly 500 more yards during the 2022 season than he did in 2021.
During a press conference last month, the 29-year-old admitted that he wasn't even fully up to speed in Miami's system last season and instead relied on his athleticism and rapport with Tagovailoa to thrive:
"Last year for me was was like a blur. I had to come, I had to learn the playbook, I had to get to know my teammates. And this year everything has slowed down. Last year, I was just out there balling. I was just out there just using all athleticism. Like, 'Here, Tua, I'm going to be here and we're just going to do that.' So this year should be a crazier year."
Injuries will obviously be the most limiting factor in Hill's quest for 2,000 yards. He wasn't as effective in the four full regular-season contests that Tagovailoa missed last year with concussion issues, averaging just 50.5 yards per game compared to 108.3 yards with the starting quarterback healthy. Hill will need to improve that figure to 117.6 yards per game to break 2,000 yards, but ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that Tagovailoa is now "fully healthy," giving Hill a real shot at making history in 2023.
Washington Commanders Will Make the Playoffs
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The Washington Commanders have been stuck in limbo in recent years, faring well enough to consistently compete but lacking the type of star quarterback they need to push them over the edge. Without sinking into the league's basement and earning a top pick, the club hasn't been able to acquire the early draft pick it needs to secure a franchise passer. While the Commanders are heading into 2023 with the same glaring hole under center they've had since Kirk Cousins departed in 2018, they may be dangerous enough on defense to overcome that issue and reach the postseason.
Washington quietly had one of the NFL's top defenses in 2022. The unit only allowed 304.6 yards and 20.2 points per game, respectively the third- and seventh-best marks in the league. It was the main reason the team finished .500 at 8-8-1, offsetting some rather atrocious play from a rotating cast of quarterbacks. It was clear neither Taylor Heinicke nor Carson Wentz was a viable option for the team, resulting in Washington bringing in veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett to compete with 2022 fifth-rounder Sam Howell for the starting job this offseason.
Howell earned an incomplete mark for his rookie season. He saw action in just one game—a meaningless season finale after the Commanders were already eliminated from playoff contention—and didn't do much of note during it. He could make a leap in Year 2, or he may be relegated to the bench again if the coaching staff decides Brissett—who went 4-7 for the Cleveland Browns last year while keeping the seat warm for Deshaun Watson—gives the team the best chance to win.
Regardless of who ultimately assumes the starting job, they'll just have to manage the game and avoid turnovers while letting the defense carry this team to the playoffs. Washington could be even more menacing on that side of the ball with a healthy Chase Young back in the fold and playmaking first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes ready to help improve on the squad's concerningly low 18 takeaways last season.
While they may struggle to claim the NFC East crown with so many tough foes in their division, the Commanders have the look of a top-14 team this year thanks to their elite defense and a small upgrade under center.
Buffalo Bills Will Miss the Playoffs
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Ever since they broke through and ended a painful 17-year playoff drought in 2017, the Buffalo Bills have consistently rated amongst the best teams in the NFL. While they've gone on to make four more postseason trips in the last five years—including three in a row as AFC East champs, their first divisional titles since the mid-1990's—the Bills could be heading for a regression in 2023.
Buffalo's 2022 campaign ended on a sour note. After the team barely survived a fierce upset bid from the rival Miami Dolphins—who were starting a seventh-round rookie at quarterback—during Wild Card weekend, it would go on to get trounced at home by the Cincinnati Bengals. The 27-10 loss was an embarrassing result for a team that had significant Super Bowl aspirations, a defeat that could foreshadow a trying 2023 season on the horizon.
The Bills lacked the type of draft capital and financial flexibility needed to make sweeping changes in wake of such a humbling loss. Despite the running game stalling out during the playoffs, the team's top backfield addition was Damien Harris—who regressed significantly last year—to replace the departed Devin Singletary. The club sorely needed some receiving talent to augment superstar Stefon Diggs, but only added an injury-plagued Deonte Harty, journeyman Trenton Sherfield and fifth-round pick rookie Justin Shorter in the offseason.
This club is also banking on an aging core of defenders to continue playing at a high level. Von Miller, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are all on the wrong side of 30. Tre'Davious White is amongst the league's top corners when healthy, but he's missed a full season worth of games over the last two years. The loss of supremely athletic linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will be felt this coming year.
While Buffalo finally may have found the type of playmaking tight end it has coveted since being thrashed by Travis Kelce during the playoffs in back-to-back years by selecting Dalton Kincaid in the first round, that pick alone won't cure all the team's ills. Josh Allen can only carry this team so much, meaning it should not come as a massive surprise if the Bills are not only overtaken by other teams in the division this year, but also miss the playoffs entirely.
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