8 MLB Trade Predictions Ahead of 2023 Deadline
With the MLB trade deadline less than two weeks away, we're trying to pin down every team's strategy.
For some, it's clear who will be buyers and sellers. Then there are other teams somewhere in between contending and falling flat. These next couple of weeks should be crucial for divisional and wild-card races.
Yet the writing already appears to be on the wall for certain teams and players.
Atlanta has arguably the strongest roster in baseball but could still stand to upgrade. The Mets are a major disappointment and could put a pair of future Hall of Fame pitchers on the market.
Let's go through eight trade predictions across MLB and explain why each one makes sense for the teams involved.
Yankees Trade for OF Randal Grichuk
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It's no secret the Yankees' black hole in left field has existed for much of the year. This weakness has been compounded by the loss of Aaron Judge, who has been out since June 3 with a toe injury.
The Yankees entered Wednesday's action in last place of the AL East, nine games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays and 2.5 games out of a wild-card spot, despite being four games over .500.
Left field is the obvious, glaring weak spot for the Yankees, aside from battling poor injury luck. They have the fifth-lowest fWAR at the position, and the lowest among legitimate playoff hopefuls.
Andrew Feinsand of MLB.com reported earlier this week the Yankees have interest in Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk, who is an impending free agent making a little more than $3 million for the rest of this season.
Grichuk, who recently homered against the Yankees, is slashing .300/.364/.473 for an .837 OPS with five home runs on the season. His ability to play all outfield positions works well for the Yankees, given their weakness in left field and Judge's absence.
The low-cost, high-reward potential is especially appealing.
Astros Get Pitching from Chicago
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The Astros are fighting to catch up to the Texas Rangers in the AL West, waiting for Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve to return to their once-vaunted lineup.
That should help their offensive issues, but they can't fix their pitching depth issues internally. Houston lost three-fifths of its rotation early in the season, with Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy all missing significant time with injuries.
It thrust Cristian Javier, Brandon Bielak and rookies like Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco into roles not previously intended for the World Series champions.
First-year general manager Dana Brown has acknowledged starting pitching is the team's top priority going into the trade deadline.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports the Astros checked in with the Cubs on Marcus Stroman, who is widely expected to become a free agent by opting out of his contract after this season.
Stroman is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 118.2 innings pitched over 20 starts this season. His .203 batting average against would be the lowest of his nine-year MLB career.
With no signs pointing to an extension between Stroman and the Cubs, dealing him makes a lot of sense.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently said on MLB Network the Astros "would love to get Dylan Cease," the White Sox ace who finished second to Justin Verlander in Cy Young voting this year.
Cease has not been as sharp this season, but the 27-year-old star is still regarded as one of the best young arms in baseball and could change the trajectory of the Astros' season.
Since the Astros lack talent depth in the farm system, it might take parting ways with a productive major league player like Chas McCormick to swing a deal for Cease.
Angels Hold onto Shohei Ohtani, Risk Losing Him for Nothing
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No speculation in sports is more fun right now than trying to predict what the Angels will do with Ohtani.
Given their lack of success through his six seasons in Anaheim and that he's going to hit the market this offseason, it seems highly unlikely the greatest two-way star of our lifetime is headed back to the Angels in free agency.
The most obvious and intelligent move would be for the Angels to get as much as they can for a generational talent. In theory, a trade package for Ohtani should be just as unprecedented as the player himself.
The Angels should be able to name their price for Ohtani, if they decide to deal him. But notice how they are still playing .500 baseball, even without Mike Trout, and sat just 4.5 games out of a wild-card spot going into Wednesday's action.
Perhaps the best way to make a lasting impression on Ohtani is to go in on a magical playoff run. Even if it's the final memory with him, make it a lasting one.
Whether this team buys or sells could change based on its performance over the next couple of weeks, but MLB.com Angels insider Rhett Bollinger writes the Angels are not expected to trade Ohtani, "no matter their record."
Texas Also Gets Pitching from Chicago
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If the Astros are in on Dylan Cease, the Rangers should be, too.
But that's not the White Sox pitcher Texas needs to focus most of its energy on. That would be reliever Kendall Graveman.
Texas relievers have the fourth-highest ERA in baseball. The other three teams with a higher bullpen ERA—the Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals and the White Sox themselves—are not serious contenders.
The bullpen is the one glaring weakness for a Rangers team with the highest OPS in the AL and the second-lowest ERA among starters.
Graveman is 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 29.2 innings over the last 30 games. He also has postseason experience that could lend itself valuable to Texas.
The Rangers already made the pre-All-Star splash of trading for Aroldis Chapman but could still use some help in the bullpen if they want to fend off the Astros and make a run in the AL.
Graveman is in the second season of a three-year, $24 million deal. But he signed to play for a White Sox team that looked like it had a future, not whatever version of the squad he's been a part of since last year.
Graveman was a key trade deadline acquisition for the Astros two years ago and could have a similar impact with the Rangers.
Orioles Finally Buy, Rather Than Sell
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Even when the Orioles were one of the surprises in baseball last year, sitting 52-51 at the trade deadline, they decided to punt rather than go for it.
One could argue the Orioles should have been buyers rather than sellers at the deadline last year, but perhaps they were not yet ready to take that step.
This year, the Orioles are clearly one of the best teams in the AL. They are top-five in creating runs and top-10 in scoring them. Baltimore is also top-10 in OPS.
The Orioles should still trade for pitching. The combination of Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Gibson is fine, but is it good enough for the postseason? The Orioles' starters have the seventh-highest ERA in baseball.
They also have the ninth-highest bullpen ERA.
Don't expect it to be anything like last year, when the Orioles traded fan-favorite Trey Mancini to the Astros and All-Star closer Jorge López to the Twins.
Baltimore should be in the market for pitching help, both among its rotation and bullpen.
Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks makes sense for the Orioles. They could also triple down on Kyles in their rotation and go after the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks.
Dodgers Trade for Jordan Montgomery
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Given how inactive their offseason was, it would stand to reason the Dodgers would be more aggressive at the trade deadline with another NL West title in sight.
This lineup still hits at a high level, something we've just come to expect from the Dodgers.
They have the third-highest OPS and runs scored. They have the second-most home runs, only behind Atlanta.
Pitching is where to expect the Dodgers to upgrade at the deadline. The Dodgers' 4.44 rotation ERA ranks in the middle of MLB, as does their fWAR.
Dustin May underwent elbow surgery this week and is out for another 12 months. Veterans Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard are on the 15-day injured list. That leaves three rookies in the rotation in Michael Grove, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan.
Only Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias are healthy with experience. A trade for left-hander Jordan Montgomery would fortify the Dodgers' young and inexperienced rotation.
Montgomery has a 1.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last seven starts. He has a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the season.
Scherzer, Verlander Get Traded in Mets Fire Sale
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The Mets' record-breaking payroll has been an abject failure. They sit 17.5 games out of the NL East lead behind Atlanta and eight games out of the wild-card race.
Based on how the Mets have played, there is no reason to be optimistic about them making a late rally to give them hope ahead of the deadline.
Their most valuable trade chips are 40-year-old Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, who turns 39 later this month. Both pitchers have a no-trade clause and make more than $43 million annually. Both have also been underwhelming in their short time with the Mets.
Verlander's current 3.72 ERA in 13 starts this season would be the fourth-highest of his career, and his highest since 2014.
Scherzer's current 3.99 ERA in 17 starts this season would be the third-highest of his career, and his highest since 2011.
This doesn't look like the Verlander who the Astros traded for in 2017, or the Scherzer who the Dodgers traded for in 2021. Hall of Fame resumes aside, the Mets would be getting pennies on the dollar for what they expected out of this pairing.
But the only way to properly acknowledge this failure is to punt on it before it's too late. Scherzer has a player option for next season, so he could leave for nothing. Verlander is not about to lead them to a World Series.
Start looking toward 2024 and beyond, Mets fans. Maybe forget 2023 ever happened.
Atlanta Gets More Pitching from Chicago
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As the clear-cut best team in baseball by winning percentage, Atlanta does not have any clear and obvious weaknesses.
The only mild complaint with Atlanta is the back end of its rotation behind Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. Atlanta starters rank 13th in fWAR for the season and 27th since June 1.
Max Fried, Atlanta's ace, is going through a rehab stint from a strained forearm. His return should bolster Atlanta's rotation, but adding Lucas Giolito from the White Sox would make things even scarier in the NL.
Giolito has been the most consistent starter for a White Sox group clearly lacking consistency, though he labored through his most recent start, giving up eight runs on six hits (three of them homers) and five walks in just 3.2 innings. His ERA prior to Tuesday night's outing against the Mets was 3.45.
Giolito is the second-most valuable starter on a White Sox team headed nowhere. He would be the third-most valuable starter among this Atlanta rotation without Fried and provides depth once the ace returns.
Atlanta does not have the ideal prospect capital to give up for White Sox ace Dylan Cease, but it does have enough top- and second-tier prospects to swing a deal for Giolito.
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