Predicting Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, More NFL RB Contracts Next Offseason
It's not easy being a running back in today's NFL.
Or especially lucrative, as three of the league's best at the position found out Monday. NFL rushing king Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants all failed to reach long-term deals with their respective teams. All will now make $10.1 million in 2023—a number that would place them 31st in annual average salary among wide receivers.
That stat only serves to underscore a harsh truth in 2023—running backs may still have considerable value on the field, but when payday rolls around the position has been severely devalued.
That sets up what should be a fascinating offseason at the position next year. With Pollard, Barkley and Jacobs all playing on one-year deals, next year's free agent class contains the last four rushing champions. A fistful of Pro Bowlers. And talent galore.
What kind of cabbage will that loaded class reasonably be able to expect when free agency rolls around in 2024?
Here's an educated guess—and it ain't pretty.
Salary Data courtesy of Spotrac.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
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We might as well kick things off with the reigning NFL rushing champion—and a player who is no doubt unhappy after he and his team failed to reach agreement on a new contract Monday.
It's not a surprise that Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas Raiders failed to reach a new deal—Jacobs was reportedly seeking $26-$32 million in guarantees, and it has become painfully obvious that NFL teams just aren't giving that kind of money to running backs. Not now.
The question now is what Jacobs does next. A training camp holdout is all but certain at this point. A trade demand is possible. Sitting out the 2023 season entirely can't be ruled out.
But the most likely scenario is that Jacobs eventually reports to the team and plays 2023 under the $10.1 million franchise tag. Say what you will about the fairness of that given the windfalls players like wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and tight end Evan Engram just got. But in terms of Jacobs' future earnings, it's the best play he has.
Jacobs has yet to turn 26, and he's coming off a year where he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards. The best-case for him is to stay healthy (which is hardly guaranteed after he posted almost 400 touches in 2022), post a season similar to last year and hope that a cash-flush team that feels one player away is willing to offer him a three-year deal with guarantees north of $20 million.
Projected Contract: Three years, $35.5 million, $22.5 million guaranteed
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
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Like Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants was angling for a new deal after being assigned the franchise tag in 2023.
Like Jacobs, Barkley didn't get that deal. And his reply to that development on social media was—cryptic.
Odds are good that we won't see Barkley at the outset of camp. But the reality is that players have essentially zero leverage in this situation. Sitting out the season just makes a player a year older and leaves $10 million on the table. Sure, Barkley can demand a trade—but that doesn't mean the Giants will give him one.
No, Barkley will be playing in New York for at least one more season. And that's when things get interesting.
There's no denying that a healthy Barkley is one of the more dynamic backs in the NFL. He played a pivotal role in New York's playoff run last year, and he'll be a key part of the offense in 2023. Last year, Barkley set a career-high with 1,312 rushing yards, scored 10 times on the ground and caught 57 passes. But Barkley also has a fairly lengthy injury history—he has missed time in four of five seasons, including almost the entire 2020 season.
It's that injury history that makes a long-term commitment to Barkley unlikely—and given that the tag only jumps 120 percent in Year 2, New York's wisest move is simply to repeat this season's decision in 2024.
Not that Barkley will like it.
Predicted Contract: One year, $12 million, $12 million guaranteed (Franchise Tag)
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
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There's still one more back left from this year's tag-ees to address. But we should probably work one of the backs mentioned in the title of this piece in.
Don't want to bury the lede.
It has already been an interesting offseason for Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler. After piling up a ridiculous (and league-leading) 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons, Ekeler was understandably upset with his 2023 salary and demanded a trade. The situation was resolved at least temporarily with a restructured deal, but Ekeler has been emphatic in his belief that running backs are being treated unfairly at present.
"The trend right now is not to pay running backs, so everyone is like 'OK, we don't have to do it either then,'" Ekeler said on the Rich Eisen Podcast. "Whether it's right, wrong or indifferent, it is what it is. It's going to take something, whether some guy stands out again, whether it's this year, one of these guys holds out and gets a big contract, but we need that needle to move to push us over the edge, because here's the deal: salary cap goes up every single year. So, you see new highs in every single position."
That leaves the Chargers in a tricky position with a back who will be 29 when the 2024 season starts. The franchise tag would not be well-received. A long-term deal would be highly unusual in the current market.
Assuming Ekeler has another season in 2023 similar to the last two, the Chargers (or someone else) are going to face a dilemma here—and the best solution may well be a three-year deal with an "out" after Year 2.
But that deal may get done after the Chargers tag him.
Projected Contract: Three years, $32.5 million, $19 million guaranteed.
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Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
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If there's a back on this list capable of turning the running back market around a little, it's Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts.
Taylor is admittedly coming off the worst season of his career—he missed six games, rushed for a career-low 861 yards and failed to average five yards a carry for the first time in his career.
But even in that "down" season, Taylor made it past 1,000 total yards—in 11 games. The season before, he led the NFL in rushing with 1,811 rushing yards, eclipsed 2,100 total yards and found the end zone 20 times.
Most importantly, Taylor won't celebrate his 25th birthday until next January.
Taylor told reporters recently he wants to remain a Colt.
"You look at the past, and guys who have shown their value on and off the field, they tend to stay here (in Indianapolis)," Taylor said. "The first season after I was drafted, I was like, 'I want to retire a Colt.' So, hopefully the organization sees that the same."
He's likely going to get his wish—one way or another. With the Colts breaking in a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, it makes sense to keep Taylor around to take pressure off him. If Injuries crop up again and Taylor has another season like 2022, the franchise tag for running backs is low enough to make bringing him back a reasonable risk.
If Taylor can recapture his 2021 form though (or come close), then he has the best chance of any contract-year back in the league of hitting the proverbial jackpot.
Projected Contract: Four years, $53.5 million, $27.5 million guaranteed.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
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Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys was the last of the trio of backs to fail to get a long-term contract Monday. But he's also an outlier of sorts—there was reportedly never any substantive talks about an extension, and there doesn't appear to be an ill will on Pollard's end either.
On some level, both are understandable, Pollard had a great season in 2022—he had the fewest carries of any 1,000-yard back in the league. But it was the first 1,000-yard campaign of his professional career, and Pollard's season was ended by a fractured leg in the playoffs against the San Francisco 49ers.
Pollard said recently that he expects to be ready for the start of camp.
"I would say I'm not really limited at this point," Pollard said, via ESPN. "It's just being smart with it, just trying to work my way back in slowly and make sure I'm in tip-top shape when I get out there so it's not a fall off."
That injury isn't the only uncertainty with Pollard. There continue to be rumblings that Dallas could add another veteran back, and Pollard is coming off a major injury and his only 1,000-yard rushing season.
There's also the matter of the Cowboys annual cap problems—per Spotrac, the team currently has the ninth-least wiggle room in the league for 2024. That may seem like a problem for another day, but if Pollard can put together another solid season, signing the 26-year-old to a longer-term deal could actually make more financial sense than a second consecutive tag in which all $12 million hits the books at once.
However, a second consecutive tag remains the most likely outcome here.
Projected Contract: One year, $12 million, $12 million guaranteed (Franchise Tag)
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
6 of 10
Over the past several seasons, there hasn't been a better running back in the NFL than Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans. Henry has amassed over 8,300 rushing yards over seven seasons. He has led the league in rushing twice. Henry has topped 1,500 rushing yards three times—including a year ago.
But there may also not be a running back about to get a harsher dose of the financial realities at his position than Henry—which on some level is ironic given the contract DeAndre Hopkins just received in Tennessee.
For starters, by running back standards Henry is ancient—he turns 30 in January. He also has a lot of wear and tear on his proverbial tires—1,750 career carries, including 349 a year ago.
Combined with his career-high 33 catches in 2022, Henry had 382 touches—a number that puts him in the crosshairs of "The Curse of 370." The last time Henry eclipsed 370 touches in a season, he missed over half the following year with a foot injury.
Now, if Henry can dodge the curse and the Titans can stay relevant in the AFC South, he'd be the poster guy for the franchise tag in 2024. But if Henry's production regresses and/or the Titans fade in 2023 (both of which are distinctly possible), then Henry is going to find himself an aging back in a crowded market.
If that's the case, a one-year, "prove it deal" is probably as good as he'll get.
Projected Contract: One year, $7.7 million, $4 million guaranteed.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
7 of 10
There isn't a harder running back on this list to get a bead on than J.K. Dobbins of the Baltimore Ravens.
When he has been on the field the past three seasons, Dobbins has looked the part of a potential star. As a rookie, Dobbins topped 900 yards and averaged six yards a carry. Last year, the former second-round pick out of Ohio State averaged 5.7 yards a pop.
But Dobbins played in just eight games last year and missed the entirety of the 2021 season with an ACL tear. They say the best ability is availability—and in that regard, Dobbins has struggled.
It's going to cost him come this time next year.
Per ESPN's Jameson Hensley, Dobbins has expressed a desire to remain a Raven.
"So, the thing I can say is -- I would love to be a Baltimore Raven for the rest of my career," Dobbins said. "I would love to because I love the city, I love the people. It feels like family here. It feels like my second home. And I hope that happens."
The thing is, unless Dobbins takes a team-friendly deal or explodes for 1,500-plus yards in 2023 and inspires the team to tag him, his chances of staying in Baltimore aren't good. After paying Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have to save money somewhere—and as we're seeing time and again, teams are doing so at running back.
That leaves Dobbins' best-case as a career year that nets him a deal with a new team.
And even then, the four-year, $25.4 million deal Miles Sanders got from Carolina is probably closer to Dobbins' ceiling than his floor.
Projected Contract: Three years, $17.8 million, $10 million guaranteed
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
8 of 10
For a while, it appeared free agency was coming that much sooner for Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon.
Like now.
There was the decline in production last year from a running back with a cap hit north of $12 million in 2023.
He also pleaded not guilty after being arrested and charged with one count of aggravated menacing, having been accused of threatening and pointing a gun at a woman during a traffic disagreement in January.
Thus, there was speculation the Bengals could move on from the soon-to-be 27-year-old. But Mixon restructured his contract, so he'll be in the Queen City for at least one more year.
Per Chris Roling of Bengals Wire, Mixon's agent said his client is all about winning a Super Bowl.
"Joe just agreed to a restructuring of his deal. His goal is to win a Super Bowl and play his career in Cincinnati, and this is the best way to accomplish these goals," Mixon's agent, Peter Schaffer, said in a statement.
2023 is likely it for Mixon in Cincinnati though, unless he is willing to play for even less money next year. The Bengals have to pay Joe Burrow. And Tee Higgins. And Ja'Marr Chase. There's just no scratch for the league's most financially devalued position.
Mixon's NFL resume is impressive. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards three times. Topped 1,000 total yards four times. Caught 231 passes. And been to a Pro Bowl.
But he has also averaged just 4.1 yards per carry for his career. His history of off-field incidents is lengthy and stretches back to his time at Oklahoma. And Mixon will be 28 when the 2024 season starts—the age where running backs historically start to decline.
Unless he posts a career year in 2023, he's headed toward being the Dalvin Cook of 2024—an accomplished veteran who finds a much colder market than he expected.
Projected Contract: Two years, $10.25 million, $5 million guaranteed
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
9 of 10
A.J. Dillon's upcoming free agency should be cause for celebration—an opportunity for the 25-year-old to finally get out from behind Aaron Jones' shadow in Green Bay and show that he can be a lead back in the NFL.
Per Jason Wilde of the Wisconsin State-Journal, Dillon said he spent too much time last year focused on his second contract—and it adversely impacted his play.
"It wasn't a bad year or anything like that, but it wasn't the year I was hoping for last year. So, obviously, there's things I need to work on. But the biggest thing for me is just the mentality of, 'I'm going to go out there and I'm going to play free. I love Green Bay. Green Bay knows that. I love the Packers. The Packers know that. I'd play here until I can't run anymore. I'll pick up long snapper or whatever it is when I start slowing down. But there's only so much I can control."
Dillon's yards per carry dipped to a career-low 4.1 last year, and he failed to hit 1,000 total yards after eclipsing that mark in 2021. But the 6'0", 247-pounder is a capable downhill bruiser who is a better receiver than he's credited for.
It's possible that the Packers could re-up Dillon and release Aaron Jones to save cap space in 2024. But it's a move that would cost almost as much in dead money as it would save, and while Jones is older, he's also a more well-rounded and dynamic player.
That leaves Dillon hitting the open market as the most likely outcome.
And if teams view him as a one-dimensional chain-mover, his second contract will likely be a relatively modest one.
Projected Contract: Two years, $9.5 million, $5 million guaranteed
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 10
Welcome to what he no doubt hopes is the D'Andre Swift career revival!
Swift's career to date has featured flashes—he surpassed 1,000 total yards two years ago and averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year. But due largely to durability issues, by 2022 Swift was playing second-fiddle to Jamaal Williams in Detroit, and when the Lions signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, Swift became expendable.
Now, the 24-year-old is in Philadelphia, where Garrett Poddell of CBS Sports believes that Swift could have the best season of his professional career.
"Making the move via trade from the Lions to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles this offseason could be exactly what Swift needs to have a career year as he enters the final year of his rookie deal," Poddell said. "The best supporting cast of his career should be enough for Swift, whose 5.5 yards per touch ranks fifth most in the NFL among 24 players with at least 500 touches since 2020, to stay healthy and produce at a Pro Bowl-caliber level for the first time in 2023."
There's no guarantee that Swift will even be Philly's lead back—the Eagles also signed Rashaad Penny in the offseason. But if he does win the job, he's certainly being set up to succeed in Philadelphia.
However, even if he does stay healthy and produce (neither of which is certain), he's still going to be a lower-tier option in a crowded market at a position that just doesn't pay well.
Staying in Philadelphia and chasing a ring on a modest deal may well be as good as it gets for Swift.
Projected Contract: Two years, $6.5 million, $3.5 million guaranteed.
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