6 Things We've Learned From the 2022-23 NHL Season and Offseason
The 2022-23 season has been behind us for over one month now and we've reached the No Man's Land of free agency with most contracts signed. As we live through the summer of the Golden Knights, we can now start to reflect on what we've learned from them -- and the rest of the league -- before next season approaches.
Before we know, we'll be caring way too much about training camp, so let's pause for a second and reflect on the six biggest lessons from the season that was (and the free agency period that is) before we gear up for 2023-24.
Trades Are the Best Way to Improve Your Team
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In a league where almost every contender is strapped for cash, smart front offices look at the trade market. On top of the flat cap, this season's class of lackluster UFAs has really driven the value of acquiring a star via trade home.
How many times have we seen teams sign a player for too many years that it hurts them down the line?
Contrary to popular belief, NHL GMs generally don't go into these deals thinking they're the shrewdest, smartest moves of all time. They've thought of it more like a necessary evil: Get two or three good years out of a player with a consistent resume and hopefully make it count, then suck it up for the decline on the back end.
This mentality has worked pretty well -- Artemi Panarin comes to mind -- but confirmation bias makes us forget many of the times it didn't work out. Plus, it's part of the reason these teams find themselves in these financial woes in the first place.
Why don't we take a look at the patterns of teams finding real success #inthiseconomy?
Panthers GM Bill Zito sent Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk. That was a huge change that would inevitably change the complexion of the team, but Tkachuk made sure it was a change for the better with his Hart finalist regular season performance and playoff encore.
As they often do, the Golden Knights took advantage of the right situation in 2021 to bring Jack Eichel from Buffalo to Vegas for Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a future first-rounder and a future second-rounder. I don't think the Stanley Cup Champions regret that one.
The Hurricanes acquired Brent Burns in a trade that sent only one roster forward (bottom-six fan favorite Steven Lorentz) to San Jose, and Burns tore it up on offense as one of the highest-scoring defensemen in the league as the Hurricanes reached the Eastern Conference Final.
I wonder where the Kings would've been last season without Kevin Fiala, who they acquired in a trade that sent Brock Faber and a first-rounder to the Wild. Not to mention the number of first-rounders the Lightning have given up on their path to multiple Cups.
I could go on, but let's end on the 2022 Stanley Cup Champion Avalanche. Colorado acquired three players via trade who would contribute essentially to that run: Nazem Kadri, Artturi Lehkonen and Devon Toews.
Many of these trades came at a low price roster-wise for teams contending for a Cup and even the high-priced guys were worth it. The moral of the story is that these days, being a good GM means seeing past a weak UFA class or two and using some creativity to address your specific roster needs. It also means if Tkachuk or Eichel are available, you trade for them.
The Flat Salary Cap Is Forcing NHL Teams to Work Smarter
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The NHL salary cap for 2023-24 is set at $83.5 million, a figure that was projected to be much higher before pandemic escrow woes dented the progress.
League commissioner Gary Bettman has committed to the idea that after this season the salary cap should climb around $4.5 million and there is speculation that the salary cap could reach closer to $100 million in the next four-to-five years.
Maybe it was for the best as the entire hockey world was on the same page about how weak the 2023 UFA class was and it felt like the collective awareness led to (gasp) good, shrewd, short-term deals for smart front offices.
According to CapFriendly, there were 166 contracts signed on the first day of free agency (including RFAs). A large majority of these contracts -- especially the few, coveted UFAs -- were short-term deals in anticipation of the cap rising.
So this made for a particularly interesting situation -- again, the UFA class wasn't strong, but smart front offices leveraged this. Teams were able to grab players like Blake Wheeler and Matt Duchene for relatively low cap hit and term.
I went into this free agency expecting to be a little disappointed by inaction, and instead, I saw general managers like Chris Drury make the most of the UFA market without overpaying.
As much as I can't wait for the cap to rise, I'm impressed with what certain front offices have been able to do with less.
The Presidents' Trophy Curse Is (sort of) Real
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I went on every show I could think of before the 2023 playoffs singing the Bruins' praises, calling the Presidents' Trophy curse over. On April 17th, The Dan Le Batard Show literally tweeted: "'The Bruins will win the Cup and the Presidents' Trophy curse is over' - Sara Civian"
I was wrong!
And truthfully, I'm still genuinely shocked that it didn't happen, but it didn't. So what now? How about taking the L, then a curious, healthy fascination as to why the best regular-season NHL team of all time choked in 7 playoff games?
Why do teams keep winning the regular season and not hoisting the Cup?
I still believe the premise of the curse is flawed. The Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win, half the teams in the league make the playoffs, and the parity we love also restricts the ability of the most talented players to go rogue and create NBA-esque superteams.
It's not like there is a specific "curse" placed solely around the team that wins the Presidents' Trophy. And according to data from DailyFaceoff.com, a first seed still has an advantage over others to win it all, but this data also shows the general parity and chance when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Then, there's the fact that the Bruins (135), the Hurricanes (113), the Devils (112) and the Leafs (111) all matched or had more regular season points as the Stanley Cup Champion Golden Knights (111).
With this salary cap and playoff structure, there are at least five Cup contenders at any given moment. Even with your best odds, there's about a 26 percent chance you win the Cup as a No. 1 seed. Maybe the pressure off combined with similar returning rosters is why these teams often win it a year or two after hoisting the Presidents' Trophy. Or perhaps two cracks at the Cup increases the probability of winning and add to this college course on probability we all failed.
The Game Is Growing
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For all of the valid criticisms about the world we live in and how far we have to go, I do think the NHL took some positive steps when it comes to growing the game this year.
There was the NHL on TNT Panel and general coverage of rightsholder events like the Winter Classic and the Stanley Cup Final. Maybe I'm biased, but the jump in quality with the panel from season one to season two was palpable and it's working its way up to filling a void hockey fans never quite had filled.
Bottom line: TNT has been making the proper tweaks and applying the necessary patience elsewhere to let the panel flourish.
No one can deny that the goofy in public, savvy in private Paul Bissonnette has pulled the best NHL player of all time -- Wayne Gretzky -- out of his shell. You can see Gretzky growing more comfortable with the game.
You need to give Biz credit for being Biz and you need to give the TNT crew behind-the-scenes credit for letting Biz be Biz and need to tip your hat to all of the above for unleashing this new, hilarious side to Wayne Gretzky that could only come with a certain level of comfort.
On top of the entertainment aspect, you've got the NHL Player Inclusion Coalition, an inclusion committee chaired by former and current professional men's and women's players with minority and LGBTQ+ representation to help diversify hockey and make the sport more welcoming. Bettman pledged $1 million to the cause at the draft and it's a start.
Then, of course, you've got investors like Ryan Reynolds and Snoop Dogg in on the Ottawa Senators. They didn't win, but they drew attention and interest in the league to different demographics. Snoop's comments touched me the most.
"Right now the NBA and the NHL are having some great playoff games. The kids need to know that there is an option to play hockey if you look like me," he said. "(Sports can) find a way to become more family and more organized, and find ways to do things...Now these kids can learn how to play the sport. They can understand that this is another way out. You don't have to play football or basketball or baseball — here's another option."
I was disappointed that the Senators didn't end up being the first Black-owned NHL franchise, but here's to hoping Snoop's interest and the ensuing discourse lead to more diversity in our sport.
The Kids Are All Right
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There's been an increase in scoring in the NHL the past few years that exploded in 2022-23.
Now you've got multi-trophy winner Cale Makar setting a fast-paced, positionless tone for the entire league and his generation, along with fellow defensemen Adam Fox and Rasmus Dahlin with similar vibes, Jason Robertson emerging as that second-round phenom (a la Sebastian Aho) who becomes a franchise cornerstone and Jack Hughes growing into the player we all projected him to be.
You've also got Trevor Zegras in a tough position, with all the chirps, flare and old men yelling at clouds, playing on a team with one of the worst goal differentials of all time.
Just seeing some of the fun 'fits ushered in by the 2023 draft class, the skill, speed, and Michigan goals scored by the youth already in the league, and the hilarious knack for interviews Hughes has, I know the kids are all right. I especially know this because they're starting to annoy us olds.
The Rulebook Needs Tweaking
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NHL officiating just can't stay out of the spotlight.
I've spent the last few years having conversations -- on and off record -- with folks in the know who stand on all sides of this issue: league spokespersons, the Department of Player Safety, respected officials, players and coaches. I still feel bad about contributing to this $25,000 fine, although Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind'Amour told me long ago to stop apologizing.
I'm always learning more, but for now, I've arrived at a conclusion: Yes, we need to find a way to help the refs on the ice and a lot of the controversy they run into isn't necessarily their fault.
For one, we've never had a clearer view of the game, with HD channels galore and more access with the TNT end ESPN deals to name a few examples. This isn't an excuse for bad officiating, but it's an explanation as to why it's seemed to "get worse."
We've got our new 20/20 eye test, then we've got brilliant analysts like Dom Luszczyszyn, Cam Charron and Shayna Goldman. Whatever your opinion on analytics is, we've never had research like this at our disposal to confirm and (hopefully) check our officiating biases.
Then, there's the emergence of skill and speed following up a hard-and-heavy era. It's much easier to judge a hit that happens over a span of even two more seconds than what we're dealing with now and the same goes for a bloodless high-stick or elbow.
And then, as Charron's work references, there's a well-known discrepancy between what officials are expected to (and do) call during the regular season versus the playoffs. Many of us struggle for a clear grasp on what goalie interference actually is by the standard definition. Imagine trying to call that during the playoffs, with the added pressure of the "let them play" mentality, compounded by the visual and analytical information we have now.
It's not fair that the officials on the ice are held to higher standards every year while little is done to modernize their position as the rest of the league is flying by.
What can we do? We can update the rulebook, with stricter guidelines on the most controversial and ambiguous penalties like goalie interference. You might wonder why this hasn't already happened and I've gathered it's a joint belief between the NHLPA and the DoPS that there are more pressing labor issues like escrow to address at the forefront.
That's definitely valid, but when the time comes, goalie interference and other consequential penalties need to be at the forefront of amendment. Meanwhile, the addition of an overhead official with access to the aforementioned HD quality doesn't seem like a serious possibility at this time.
Until we see some real changes in the rules or process of officiating, there needs to be a clear directive. Call the rule book or don't, but we're all sick of the pre-season song-and-dance in which officials are instructed to kick Patrice Bergeron off the face-off dot to prove a point.
As this league makes huge strides on and off the ice, I hope it treats officiating with the same respect.
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