10 Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of 2023 MLB Season
With the 2023 MLB All-Star festivities in the rearview mirror, it's time for a quick round of bold predictions before the second half of the season gets underway Friday.
What follows are 10 bold predictions for the remainder of the 2023 season, focusing mostly on individual players rather than teams since there will be plenty of postseason predictions to comb through in the coming months.
It's a mix of award predictions, individual milestones and even some trade deadline and extension talk, all of which is meant to set the stage for the second half.
Remember, the idea here was to be bold, not safe.
Freddie Freeman Has MLB's First 60-Double Season Since 1936
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Only six times in MLB history has a player reached 60 doubles in a single season, and it's been 87 years since the last time someone reached that milestone.
- Earl Webb (1931): 67
- George Burns (1926): 64
- Joe Medwick (1936): 64
- Hank Greenberg (1934): 63
- Paul Waner (1932): 62
- Charlie Gehringer (1936): 60
Todd Helton (59 in 2000) and Nick Castellanos (58 in 2019) have come close in the last 25 years, but no one has managed to join that exclusive group.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman leads the majors with 31 doubles, putting him on pace for 56 this year, so he will need to pick up the pace a bit in order to make history.
However, if his 17-double performance in May is any indication, he is capable of piling up two-base hits when he's swinging it well.
Eury Pérez Is Controversially Removed from a No-Hitter
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Eury Pérez has been the best of an impressive crop of rookie pitchers this year.
The 6'8", 220-pound right-hander made his MLB debut on May 12, and over 11 starts he has gone 5-3 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 53.1 innings.
He leads all pitchers with at least 50 innings in ERA, and he has limited opposing hitters to a .208 batting average with a four-pitch repertoire that includes a fastball that averages 97.6 mph and three terrific offspeed pitches.
Despite his success and the fact that the Miami Marlins are in the thick of wild-card contention, Pérez was optioned to the minors just before the All-Star break as the team will try to strategically limit his innings in the second half.
He's only 20 years old, and his 84.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors this year are already a career high, so taking steps to not overextend him makes sense.
To that point, he has yet to throw more than 93 pitches in any start this year, which could present manager Skip Schumaker with a tough decision if he has a chance at history with a no-hitter through six or seven innings.
Multiple 70-SB Players for First Time Since 1991
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The stolen base was something of a lost art prior to the 2023 season, but the implementation of new pickoff rules and larger bases have led to a spike in steals across baseball.
Miami Marlins utility man Jon Berti led the majors with 41 steals last year.
That total has already been matched by Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. and exceeded by Oakland Athletics rookie Esteury Ruiz, who has 43 steals in 85 games.
Extrapolating those numbers forward based on remaining team games, Acuña is on pace for 75 steals and Ruiz is on pace for 76 steals.
That would make this season the first time since 1991 that two players have stolen at least 70 bases, with Marquis Grissom (76) and Otis Nixon (72) battling it out for the National League lead that year.
To take it one step further, no one has stolen 75 bases in a season since Jose Reyes in 2007.
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Sonny Gray Signs Extension with Minnesota Twins
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An in-season extension for an upcoming free agent is not something we see often, especially during the second half of the campaign when the opportunity to test the open market is just a few short months away.
However, just last year, Joe Musgrove signed a five-year, $100 million deal to stay with the San Diego Padres on Aug. 1, and he was poised to be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers of the winter.
Could we see a similar deal struck this season?
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is having a Cy Young-caliber season with the Minnesota Twins with a 2.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 99.2 innings, and he was an All-Star for the third time in his career and with his third different team.
That said, at 33 years old and given the ups and downs he has experienced in his career, he could be more open to the certainty that an early extension would provide than most top-tier pitchers on the cusp of free agency.
A three-year, $60 million deal seems like a reasonable move for both sides.
Elly De La Cruz Becomes First Rookie to Hit for Cycle Twice
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Phenom Elly De La Cruz became the youngest player since 1972 to hit for the cycle when he accomplished the feat earlier this year in just his 15th big league game.
The 21-year-old has jump-started the Cincinnati Reds' season since he was promoted to the big leagues on June 6, and through his first 30 games he is hitting .325/.363/.524 for a 131 OPS+ with nine doubles, two triples, four home runs, 16 RBI and 16 steals in 18 attempts.
His rare mix of power, speed and aggressiveness in the batter's box and on the bases makes him a prime candidate to hit for the cycle every time he takes the field.
Only five players in history have hit for the cycle twice in one year—John Reilly (1883), Tip O'Neill (1887), Babe Herman (1931), Aaron Hill (2012) and Christian Yelich (2018).
If De La Cruz can do it again before 2023 is over, he would be the first rookie to join that list. It would also put him just one away from tying the career record of three cycles, and one way or another that mark could be in serious jeopardy before Cincinnati's dynamic rookie is done with his MLB career.
James Paxton Receives AL Cy Young Votes
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The Boston Red Sox signed James Paxton prior to the 2022 season with an eye on his contributing in 2023 as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery at the time, and he has proved worth the wait.
The 34-year-old finally made his Red Sox debut on May 12, and he has given a banged up starting rotation a huge boost, going 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 56 innings over 10 starts.
Considering he missed the entire 2022 season and threw just 21.2 combined innings in 2020 and 2021, it's surprising how quickly he has shaken off the rust and returned to the front-line form he flashed during his time with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees.
Among AL starters with at least 50 innings pitched, he ranks high on the leaderboard in ERA (sixth), WHIP (fifth) and strikeouts per nine innings (11th), and his importance to the success of a Red Sox team clinging to wild-card contention can't be understated.
If the Red Sox wind up making the playoffs and Paxton stays healthy enough to make 12-14 more starts while continuing to pitch at such a high level, he could sneak onto the back end of a few AL Cy Young ballots.
Corey Seager Finishes with a Higher BA Than Luis Arraez
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Spoiler alert: I'm selling the idea of Luis Arraez hitting .400 this year.
The Miami Marlins second baseman leads the majors with a .383 batting average at the All-Star break, and his elite contact skills have made his potential run at the .400 mark a popular talking point this year.
However, he has been a significantly better first-half player throughout his career, with a .349 career average in the first half and a .299 career average after the All-Star break. That includes a .338/.289 split last year when he still held on to win the AL batting title.
Meanwhile, Corey Seager has been playing out of his mind since returning from a hamstring injury, and he is hitting .375/.435/.646 in 161 plate appearances since the beginning of June.
Aside from his surface-level numbers, which include a .353 batting average overall that would lead the AL batting title race by 30 points over Yandy Díaz if he had enough at-bats to qualify, Seager also has elite batted-ball metrics.
He ranks among the MLB leaders in average exit velocity (99th percentile), hard-hit rate (99th percentile) and barrel rate (98th percentile), and perhaps most telling of all he has a higher expected batting average (.334) than Arraez (.331) based on quality of contact.
I still think Arraez holds on to win the NL batting title, but Seager will lead the majors in batting average and have enough at-bats to qualify for a batting title of his own.
Arizona Diamondbacks Acquire Corbin Burnes at Trade Deadline
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Rental arms such as Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Michael Lorenzen are sure to be among the most talked-about players leading up to the trade deadline, but it's pitchers with additional remaining club control who bring back blockbuster returns.
The Cincinnati Reds pulled the trigger on trading Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle last summer when they both had one year of arbitration remaining, and they were able to maximize their prospect return in both deals as a result.
Will the Milwaukee Brewers do the same with Corbin Burnes?
Even in the thick of contention a year ago, they traded All-Star closer Josh Hader, and after a contentious offseason of arbitration negotiations, it looks increasingly unlikely that Burnes will be sticking around long-term.
There would be no shortage of interested teams if the three-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner were made available, including several major-market contenders, but don't count out an upstart Arizona Diamondbacks team as a potential landing spot.
It might not make sense for the D-backs to mortgage young talent on a rental this year when they are building toward sustainable contention, but parting with quality young talent for someone like Burnes who could help this year and next would be easier to justify.
Finding another quality starter to join Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly should be at the top of their to-do list.
Atlanta Braves Become First Team with Six 30-Homer Players
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The Minnesota Twins set an MLB record in 2019 when five different players—Mitch Garver (31), Eddie Rosario (32), Miguel Sanó (34), Max Kepler (36) and Nelson Cruz (41)—reached the 30-homer mark.
It looks like that record could be in serious jeopardy as the Atlanta Braves have a high-powered and well-balanced offense that has slugged an MLB-leading 169 home runs on the year.
Here are the six guys who will be trying to make history:
- Matt Olson: 29 HR
- Ozzie Albies: 22 HR
- Ronald Acuña Jr.: 21 HR
- Sean Murphy: 17 HR
- Marcell Ozuna: 17 HR
- Austin Riley: 16 HR
With 73 more games to play, it's doable as long as everyone stays healthy and no one slips into a prolonged slump. Eddie Rosario also has 14 home runs and had a red-hot June, so he gives them a dark-horse candidate for another 30-homer campaign.
Blake Snell Wins NL Cy Young
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Blake Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet since late May.
Over his last eight starts, he has gone 5-1 with a 0.56 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 48 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a .148 batting average and .435 OPS.
He has double-digit strikeouts in five of his last six starts, and he closed out the first half with six scoreless innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball against the New York Mets to drop his ERA under the 3.00 mark on the year.
The 30-year-old is a free agent at the end of the season, and while he has been inconsistent in the years since winning 2018 AL Cy Young honors with the Tampa Bay Rays, he still has elite stuff and could reel in a huge payday if he picks up where he left off to begin the second half.
With Clayton Kershaw dealing with shoulder discomfort, the door is open for Snell to move into the driver's seat in the NL Cy Young race.
Guys like Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman, Bryce Elder, Zac Gallen, Spencer Strider, Logan Webb and Mitch Keller will have something to say about it, but here's predicting that Snell will become just the seventh pitcher in MLB history to win a Cy Young in both leagues.
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