B/R's Final 2023 MLB Mock Draft for Every 1st-Round Pick
The 2023 MLB draft is almost here, and it's time for Bleacher Report's final mock draft.
The first 70 picks of the 10-round, three-day event will be made on Sunday as part of MLB's All-Star festivities from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, with coverage starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
LSU teammates Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes headline this year's draft class, though reported record-breaking bonus demands from Crews could lead to a shakeup at the top of the draft that has a ripple effect throughout the first round.
Ahead, you'll find full analysis for each of the 28 first-round picks, as well as quick-hit selections for the Compensation Round and the Competitive Balance Round A for a total of 39 projected picks.
Scouting information and industry consensus were gathered via the latest mock drafts and reports from Keith Law (The Athletic), Eric Longenhagen (FanGraphs), Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com) and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN).
Note: The New York Mets (No. 32 overall) and Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 36 overall) both had their first selection moved back 10 spots as a result of luxury-tax penalties, so they will not have a first-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Nos. 1-3
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1. Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes, LSU
There is growing speculation that longtime presumptive No. 1 overall pick Dylan Crews does not want to sign with the Pirates, or that it could take going above the $9.7 million slot value of the No. 1 pick to get him to sign. That uncertainty coupled with the fact that the talent gap between him and Skenes is virtually non-existent could be enough for the Pirates to go with the potential future ace.
There is also a potential scenario where they pivot to Wyatt Langford or Max Clark and sign them for below-slot to try to push an above-slot deal to their next pick, similar to what they did with Henry Davis and Anthony Solometo in 2021. Don't sleep on that outcome.
Skenes would be the consensus No. 1 prospect in almost any other draft class, and he is the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg came out of San Diego State in 2009. The 6'6" right-hander went 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 122.2 innings this spring while regularly sitting in the triple digits with his fastball.
2. Washington Nationals: OF Dylan Crews, LSU
According to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Skenes and Crews are the only two players on the Nationals' draft board at No. 2 overall, so one of the LSU stars will be slotting into a farm system on the rise behind towering outfielder James Wood.
The consensus seems to be that if the Pirates go with Langford or Clark at No. 1 overall, the Nationals will pick Skenes and Crews will slide to No. 3 overall. But in this scenario, they'll happily take the 2023 Golden Spikes winner.
Crews hit .426/.567/.713 with 16 doubles, 18 home runs, 70 RBI and more walks (71) than strikeouts (46) in 71 games this spring.
3. Detroit Tigers: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida
Assuming the LSU teammates go 1-2, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the Tigers will select Langford over the prep duo of Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. It makes sense that a new front office drafting for the first time would prefer the more polished college player over the high school options.
Langford hit .373/.498/.784 this spring, and he launched 47 home runs in 130 games over the past two seasons playing in the toughest conference in the country. He could be one of the first players from this draft class to reach the majors and a staple in the middle of the lineup once he arrives.
Nos. 4-6
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4. Texas Rangers: OF Max Clark, Franklin High School (IN)
There is a potential scenario where Dylan Crews or Wyatt Langford are still available at this pick, in which case the Rangers would have a tough decision to make given reports that Clark is No. 1 overall on their draft board.
In this mock draft, they can simply take the five-tool Indiana prep star without thinking twice, and he would immediately join fellow outfielder Evan Carter as the top prospects in the Texas farm system.
5. Minnesota Twins: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss
There has long been a consensus top five players in the 2023 draft class, and in this scenario, Walker Jenkins is the last player standing from that group. However, there has been consistent buzz that Gonzalez is the preferred pick if Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford are off the board.
A three-year standout at Ole Miss and two-time member of the Collegiate National Team, Gonzalez hit .319/.427/.561 with 40 home runs and 158 RBI in 186 games with the Rebels.
6. Oakland Athletics: C Kyle Teel, Virginia
Even if one of the high school outfielders are still on the board, college bats seem to be the focus for the Athletics. TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor and Grand Canyon shortstop Jacob Wilson are also very much in play here, but the A's have done a great job developing catching talent, and Teel is hands down the best backstop in this draft class.
A three-year starter at Virginia, Teel hit .407/.475/.655 with 25 doubles, 13 home runs and 69 RBI in 65 games this spring.
Nos. 7-9
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7. Cincinnati Reds: OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick High School (NC)
If Jenkins does wind up slipping—as many are predicting—the Reds would need to weigh the pros and cons of signing him to an above-slot deal and going with a value pick at No. 38 overall versus a slot-value deal for Wake Forest ace Rhett Lowder and a higher-ceiling player with their next pick.
Jenkins has a 60-hit, 60-power profile and a strong 6'3", 210-pound frame, giving him one of the highest offensive ceilings of any player in this class.
8. Kansas City Royals: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit High School (OR)
The Royals appear to be the first potential landing spot for Meyer, who is the top prep pitcher in a draft class that is extremely thin in that area. In fact, he could be the only high school pitcher selected in the entire first round.
With a fastball that has touched triple digits, a potentially elite slider and a projectable 6'5", 185-pound frame with clean mechanics, Meyer is everything teams look for when rolling the dice on an 18-year-old pitcher.
9. Colorado Rockies: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest
This is the best-case scenario for a Rockies organization that is perpetually starved for pitching talent. Lowder has one of the highest floors in this draft class and is a safe bet to be at least a middle-of-the-rotation starter with the potential for more.
The 6'2", 200-pound right-hander finished 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 120.1 innings this spring. His mid-90s fastball, elite changeup and quality slider should help him fly through the minors.
Nos. 10-12
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10. Miami Marlins: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon
With secondary Day 1 picks at No. 35 and No. 47 overall, the Marlins are a prime candidate to do something funky with a below-slot reach at No. 10 overall. This could be where a deep crop of high school shortstops comes into play.
With that said, if Wilson is still available, he fits the type of contact-driven player the new front office values with the best bat-to-ball skills in this class. He hit .412/.461/.635 with 27 extra-base hits and only five strikeouts in 217 plate appearances this spring.
11. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida
The Angels are rumored to be placing an emphasis on players who can move quickly through the minor leagues and help in the short-term.
With an upper 90s fastball and a swing-and-miss splitter, Waldrep could slot into an MLB bullpen right now. His quality slider and durable 6'2", 210-pound frame give him starter upside in the future if he can refine his overall command.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Colin Houck, Parkview High School (GA)
Houck to the Diamondbacks has been a consistent link across the industry this spring in mock drafts. Going with anyone else at this point would simply be trying to buck the trend.
He has five above-average tools and should have every opportunity to stick at shortstop, though his offensive game would also fit at third base if he slows down once his 6'2", 190-pound frame fills out. The Georgia prep standout is also a 3-star quarterback recruit.
Nos. 13-15
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13. Chicago Cubs: SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
Rumors have emerged about terrific private workouts for the Cubs from both Nimmala and prep third baseman Aidan Miller, while college hitters Matt Shaw, Tommy Troy and Enrique Bradfield Jr. also fit the mold of players whom the North Siders have targeted in the past.
There are some swing-and-miss concerns with Nimmala, who has an extremely aggressive approach at the plate, but his raw tools give him the highest ceiling in a deep class of prep shortstops.
14. Boston Red Sox: IF Matt Shaw, Maryland
The Red Sox have gone with high school infielders with their last four first-round picks. There will be a handful of players who fit that demographic near the top of the best-available list when they are on the clock this year.
However, the advanced all-around game and high floor that Shaw provides could vault him ahead of those less polished players. The Big Ten Player of the Year hit .341/.445/.697 with 20 doubles, 24 home runs and 69 RBI this spring, and he has seen time at second base, shortstop and third base.
15. Chicago White Sox: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee
Dollander was among the leading candidates to go No. 1 overall heading into the 2023 season after he finished 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 79 innings as a sophomore.
His stock has slipped after an inconsistent spring where he logged a 4.75 ERA and saw his walk rate spike from 4.2 to 7.8 percent, but he still has some of the best pure stuff in the class. He could be a steal for the White Sox if it only takes one or two small adjustments to get him back on track.
Nos. 16-18
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16. San Francisco Giants: 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, Madison High School (VA)
Eldridge is the best two-way player in this draft with a powerful 6'7", 223-pound frame that delivers mid-90s fastballs and a plus slider on the mound and some of the best raw power in the 2023 class in the batter's box.
He has expressed interest in remaining a two-way player, though most prefer him as a hitter. The Giants are a frequent hypothetical landing spot due in part to their selection of UConn two-way player Reggie Crawford at No. 30 overall last year.
17. Baltimore Orioles: 1B/OF Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic
The Orioles rely more on statistical-based scouting than most organizations, and Schanuel figures to be a darling of most models after an extremely productive career at Florida Atlantic.
The 6'4", 220-pound slugger hit .447/.615/.868 with 18 doubles, 19 home runs, 64 RBI and a comical number of walks (71) compared to strikeouts (14). He is athletic enough to potentially handle a corner outfield spot, and his bat is among the most polished in the class.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Brayden Taylor, TCU
Taylor could go as high as No. 6 overall to the Oakland Athletics, and there are numerous other potential landing spots for him in the 10-15 range. But with such a deep crop of college hitters, someone is going to slide further than their talent suggests.
The TCU star hit .308/.430/.631 with 23 home runs and 70 RBI in 67 games this spring, and he had a .941 OPS in 43 plate appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer before suiting up for the Collegiate National Team. He could finally solve what has long been a revolving door at third base for the Brewers.
Nos. 19-21
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19. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell High School (FL)
A broken hamate cost Miller much of his senior season or he might have played his way into the top 10 thanks to some of the best raw power in this draft class. He has been steadily climbing in mock drafts as reports of impressive private workouts have begun trickling out, so this could wind up being his floor.
The Rays have frequently targeted players with one loud carrying tool over the years and he fits the bill with a strong 6'2", 205-pound frame and 60-grade power from the right side. The biggest knock against him is the fact that he's already 19 years old with limited physical projection remaining.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA)
The Blue Jays are one of the few teams in this range linked to high school pitching, with White and Charlee Soto the most frequent names mentioned as candidates to sneak into the first round.
The 6'5", 210-pound southpaw has electric present stuff with a mid-90s fastball, a high-spin curveball and the makings of a solid changeup, and there is plenty of projection remaining in his frame. The big question is whether he will be signable away from a commitment to Vanderbilt at this point in the draft.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: IF Tommy Troy, Stanford
Troy is a high-floor infielder with no clear standout tool, but he has a polished all-around game and the ability to contribute in a variety of areas. That sounds like the type of player whom the Cardinals have squeezed every bit of value out of over the years.
Troy hit .394/.478/.699 with 17 doubles, 17 home runs, 58 RBI and 17 steals while helping lead Stanford to the College World Series this spring. He was also one of the top performers in the Cape Cod League last summer when he batted .310/.386/.531 with 13 extra-base hits in 127 plate appearances.
Nos. 22-24
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22. Seattle Mariners: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest
The Mariners will be the most compelling team on Day 1 of the draft, as they pick again at Nos. 29 and No. 30 overall. There has been a wide variety of predictions on how they will approach those three picks, but the safest bet would be to go with a high-floor college player at No. 22 and then swing for the fences on a pair of high-ceiling high schoolers with the next two picks.
Wilken hit .345/.506/.807 with 33 home runs this spring as one of the most prolific power hitters in the country, and while he is a below-average athlete, he does have the defensive tools to stick at third base. He could be a steal if his power translates as hoped.
23. Cleveland Guardians: OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt
Bradfield is one of the toughest players to slot. He could potentially go as high as No. 11 to the Los Angeles Angels, while a number of other teams drafting in the teens are also potential fits.
The Vanderbilt star has true 80-grade speed and he went 130-for-143 on stolen base attempts during his three years on campus. He hit .279/.410/.429 with more walks (45) than strikeouts (40) this spring, and he doesn't try to do too much offensively with a line-drive swing tailored to maximize his speed.
24. Atlanta Braves: LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State
"Breaking ball command is incredibly important to the Braves and Whitman arguably has the best slider feel in the whole draft," wrote Kyle Longenhagen of FanGraphs.
The Kent State ace has been steadily climbing draft boards this spring due in part to a glaring lack of left-handed pitching in this draft class. The 6'5", 200-pound southpaw has touched 96 mph with a fastball that has good late life, which coupled with his plus slider helped him go 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 81 innings this spring.
Nos. 25-28
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25. San Diego Padres: C Blake Mitchell, Sinton High School (TX)
The Padres have never been afraid to roll the dice on upside, which could make them the perfect landing spot for Mitchell. He's the top high school catcher in this draft class, which is a profile that always carries significant risk.
With a 55-hit, 55-power offensive profile, he is one of the better hitters in the prep class, and he also has a rocket arm and has been up to 97 mph on the mound. He would likely be a Day 2 pick as a pitcher, which provides an intriguing fallback option if catching doesn't work out.
26. New York Yankees: SS Sammy Stafura, Panas High School (NY)
Stafura played his high school ball about 40 miles north of Yankee Stadium, and the team scouted him a ton this spring when he enjoyed some late helium by showcasing intriguing raw power to go along with his plus speed and solid defense.
Fellow prep hitters Dillon Head, George Lombard Jr. and Colt Emerson are also names to watch here.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Ty Floyd, LSU
No one did more to raise their draft stock during this year's College World Series than Floyd, who started Game 1 of the finals against Florida and racked up a season-high 17 strikeouts over eight strong innings.
The 6'2" right-hander has an elite spin rate on his upper 90s fastball and does a great job working north-south with his curveball, which is an approach that MLB teams have increasingly favored in recent years. The Phillies have done a nice job drafting and developing pitching as of late.
28. Houston Astros: 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami
The Astros would likely be all over Floyd if he is still on the board, as he is a perfect fit for their organizational philosophy on pitching approach. If he's not, it sounds like they will pick through what is left of the college hitter crop.
Morales hit .408/.475/.713 with 20 home runs and 70 RBI this spring. He is part of a group of candidates in this spot that also includes Arizona outfielder Chase Davis, Virginia third baseman Jake Gelof and Virginia Tech outfielder Jack Hurley.
Compensation/Competitive Balance A Picks
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Compensation Picks
Under the new CBA, if a rookie is on a team's Opening Day roster and he goes on to win Rookie of the Year, the club is awarded a compensation pick immediately following the first round. As a result, Julio Rodríguez earned the Mariners the No. 29 overall selection.
29. Seattle Mariners: OF Dillon Head, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
Competitive Balance Round A Picks
Teams that are one of the bottom 10 in market size or bottom 10 in revenue pool are awarded a bonus pick after the first or second round, with teams alternating between the two rounds each year.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers also fall in this section, as both teams had their first pick moved back 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold by more than $40 million.
30. Seattle Mariners: RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL)
31. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS (CA)
32. New York Mets: SS George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep (FL)
33. Milwaukee Brewers: OF Chase Davis, Arizona
34. Minnesota Twins: SS Walker Martin, Eaton High School (CO)
35. Miami Marlins: C/1B Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Jonny Farmelo, Westfield High School (VA)
37. Detroit Tigers: SS Colt Emerson, Glenn High School (OH)
38. Cincinnati Reds: LHP Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken HS (RI)
39. Oakland Athletics: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while scouting information comes via MLB.com and Baseball America.
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