Predicting All 30 Team's Approach to the 2023 MLB Draft
The 2023 MLB draft kicks off this Sunday from T-Mobile Park in Seattle as part of MLB's All-Star festivities, with the first 70 picks on tap for Day 1 of what will be a three-day event that floods the minor league ranks with a new wave of up-and-coming talent.
This year's draft class is headlined by a consensus top five that includes LSU teammates Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford and high school outfielders Walker Jenkins and Max Clark.
Further down the board, polished college hitters and high school middle infielders are in abundance, while pitching in general is extremely thin and there might be only one high school pitcher selected in the entire first round.
Ahead we've put together a round-up of all the latest rumblings to try to nail down each team's draft strategy, using the latest reports from Jim Callis (MLB.com), Keith Law (The Athletic), Kyle Longenhagen (FanGraphs) and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN).
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles (Day 1 Picks: 17th, 53rd, 63rd)
General manager Mike Elias has not selected a pitcher in the first round since taking over the Baltimore front office in 2019, and while there is an outside chance they could go after prep right-hander Noble Meyer if he slips, the pick here will almost certainly be a hitter.
"They draft position players and have settled on a pretty specific type. Power must be present, along with at least decent bat-to-ball skills, ideally with some physical skills and/or speed/defensive value," wrote Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.
Boston Red Sox (Day 1 Picks: 14th, 50th)
The Red Sox last four first-round picks have all been high school infielders, and an inability to successfully develop pitching talent could lead them down that road again. Slugger Aiden Miller and shortstop Colin Houck are guys to watch from the high school ranks, while Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw and TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor are the most frequently linked college bats.
"I haven't heard any pitchers here," wrote Keith Law of The Athletic.
New York Yankees (Day 1 Picks: 26th)
The Yankees only have one pick inside the first 70 as they forfeited their second-round pick to sign Carlos Rodón in free agency. Their interest in New York prep shortstop Sammy Stafura is the worst-kept secret in this draft cycle, and if he's off the board at No. 26 it could be another high school shortstop in George Lombard Jr.
"I'd expect a prep position player at their top pick given what the Yankees tend to like at early picks and what's on the board," wrote McDaniel.
Tampa Bay Rays (Day 1 Picks: 19th, 31st, 55th)
The Rays surprised everyone last year when they took high school first baseman Xavier Isaac with the No. 29 overall pick after he checked in as the No. 92 prospect in Baseball America's pre-draft rankings. In other words, expect the unexpected when it comes to a Tampa Bay front office that is not afraid to zig while others zag.
"The Rays aren't afraid of going prep-heavy or taking non-consensus talents," wrote McDaniel.
Toronto Blue Jays (Day 1 Picks: 20th)
The Blue Jays gave up their second-round pick to sign Chris Bassitt in free agency, so after their first-round selection they won't pick again until No. 89 overall. The Blue Jays have generally taken a best-available approach the last few years, and they are in a great position to do it again.
Jim Callis of MLB.com expects them to be in prep left-hander Thomas White if he falls, while also acknowledging that they will consider a wide variety of different players with their only Day 1 selection.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (Day 1 Picks: 15th, 51st)
The White Sox could wind up caught between the bottom of Tier 2 and the top of Tier 3 in terms of this year's talent pool. They seem to be a popular floor for Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander, who was a candidate to go No. 1 overall before an inconsistent spring, but a college bat is still the most likely outcome.
"I've heard them on a couple of the college arms, including (Chase) Dollander, as well as (Brayden) Taylor and Yohandy Morales. It sounds like there may be two camps in the front office, one favoring an arm and one a bat," wrote Law.
Cleveland Guardians (Day 1 Picks: 23rd, 58th, 62nd)
The Guardians tend to value players who are young for their draft class, so infielders Colt Emerson and Arjun Nimmala who will both be 17 on draft day are worth keeping an eye on for their first-round selection. After that, expect them to once again go heavy on college arms with good command.
"The Guardians' specific draft strength -- generic, strike-throwing college pitchers in Round 3 and on, and gaining velocity almost out of thin air -- might be the clearest and most pronounced of any team's draft strength," wrote McDaniel.
Detroit Tigers (Day 1 Picks: 3rd, 37th, 45th)
Unless one of the LSU players falls out of the top two or the Detroit front office decides to cut a below-slot deal with someone like Virginia catcher Kyle Teel, the safest prediction in this year's draft seems to be Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford to the Tigers. He has a high floor to match his significant upside, making him a safe first selection for the new front office that could lean heavily on college players in this draft.
"The Tigers seem destined for Langford unless the Pirates cut a deal and Crews drops to No. 3," wrote Callis.
Kansas City Royals (Day 1 Picks: 8th, 44th, 66th)
This draft is extremely thin on high school pitching, and the Royals look like the potential high-water mark for Noble Meyer who is the consensus top prep arm this year. They are also one of the few teams in the top 15 regularly linked to high school catcher Blake Mitchell. If they go the college route, shortstops Jacob Wilson (Grand Canyon) and Jacob Gonzalez (Ole Miss) are names to watch.
"The Royals have taken prep arms this high before. Texas high school catcher Blake Mitchell and Illinois high school outfielder Dillon Head have also been mentioned with them, though the Head interest may be at their next pick," wrote Kyle Longenhagen of FanGraphs.
Minnesota Twins (Day 1 Picks: 5th, 34th, 49th)
With a consensus top five in this draft class—Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark—the Twins can simply sit back and take whichever top-tier player falls into their laps. That said, there has been some recent buzz that they would prefer a college player and could opt for Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez.
"I think taking whichever of the top five talents who remain at their pick is an easy call, even if there are rumors that they'll go another way," wrote McDaniel.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros (Day 1 Picks: 28th, 61st)
The Astros have been frequently linked to a pair of college pitchers with some late helium in Kent State left-hander Joe Whitman and LSU right-hander Ty Floyd. They could also be a landing spot for whoever is left of the second tier of prep and college bats, with Miami third baseman Yohandy Morales a popular fit in mock drafts.
"Floyd has the vertical fastball/breaking ball attack Houston covets and there are basically no college arms left," wrote Longenhagen.
Los Angeles Angels (Day 1 Picks: 11th)
The Angels are a prime candidate to go with the best available player on the board at No. 11 overall, and college pitchers Rhett Lowder (Wake Forest) and Hurston Waldrep (Florida) both profile as arms that could move quickly through the minors leagues.
"The Angels were associated with toolsy high schoolers early during my intel gathering, but that has shifted to the hit tool-driven college guys and polished arms who can be run up the minor league ladder quickly, which is consistent with their recent approach," wrote Longenhagen.
Oakland Athletics (Day 1 Picks: 6th, 39th, 41st)
The Athletics have almost exclusively been tied to college hitters, which could put them in an interesting position if Walker Jenkins or Max Clark falls out of the top five. Would they go above-slot to sign one of those prep outfielders and take away from their next two picks? Assuming the top five plays out as expected, Jacob Wilson (Grand Canyon), Jacob Gonzalez (Ole Miss), Kyle Teel (Virginia) and Brayden Taylor (TCU) seem to be the names they are mulling over. They could then snag Virginia third baseman Jake Gelof at No. 39 overall to reunite him with his brother in the minors.
"There's very little discussion of any high school players," wrote Law.
Seattle Mariners (Day 1 Picks: 22nd, 29th, 30th, 57th)
The Mariners have a chance to significantly bolster their farm system with three of the top 30 picks in this year's draft, but there doesn't seem to be a consensus on how they will attack those three selections.
"So the betting is still that the Mariners go college (at No. 22) and then go hog wild at 29/30 with high-ceiling high school guys. (Yohandy) Morales and Brock Wilken would be the most obvious fits of guys who might "fall" to this point," wrote Law.
"There's a lot of chatter that they'll take three high school players and could start by plucking (Blake) Mitchell, (Colt) Emerson, (Bryce) Eldridge or shortstop George Lombard Jr.," wrote Callis.
"With three high Day 1 picks, there are lots of options for mixing things up. The industry suspicion is that they take two high school position players and one pitcher," wrote McDaniel.
Texas Rangers (Day 1 Picks: 4th)
It's a coin toss between Walker Jenkins and Max Clark for the Rangers, assuming the top three picks play out as expected. That will give them another top-100 caliber outfield prospect to pair with Evan Carter in their farm system. They don't pick again until No. 108, so they will be eyeing potential Day 1 talents that slip out of the first two rounds for an above-slot deal with their next pick.
"Langford won't get past the Rangers but probably won't get to them either. So Texas would come down to Jenkins versus Clark, which could go either way," wrote Callis.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves (Day 1 Picks: 24th, 59th, 70th)
The Braves are picking in a spot where high school hitters are the logical direction, though their current window of contention could mean they pivot to a high-floor college player who could move quickly. Kent State left-hander Joe Whitman makes a lot of sense, and Longenhagen pointed to his plus slider as something that should appeal to a Braves organization that prioritizes breaking ball command.
"Restocking the system for more potential trades and maybe finding another underrated quick riser will continue to be the aim," wrote McDaniel.
Miami Marlins (Day 1 Picks: 10th, 35th, 47th)
If top high school pitcher Noble Meyer doesn't go to the Kansas City Royals at No. 8 overall, the Marlins might be his landing spot given their success developing arms in recent years. Otherwise, college hitters with advanced hit tools are the frequent link, with Matt Shaw (Maryland), Jacob Wilson (Grand Canyon) and Kyle Teel (Virginia) the names to watch.
"Teams are generally putting the Marlins with contact-oriented bats, especially if Noble Meyer is no longer on the board. This is the last place I've heard Meyer's name mentioned, which makes me think it might be his floor," wrote Longenhagen.
New York Mets (Day 1 Picks: 32nd, 56th)
The Mets first pick was moved back 10 spots from No. 22 to No. 32 as a penalty for exceeding the luxury tax threshold, so they will be hunting for value in the form of a first-round talent who slides down boards.
"The Mets are hoping Yohandy Morales gets to their pick... That now looks unlikely, but he's exactly the kind of player they should be looking for -- one key adjustment from being a clear starter. (Chase) Davis, (Ty) Floyd, Brock Wilken, (Bryce) Eldridge, (Jonny) Farmelo and (Dillon) Head all fit that bill," wrote McDaniel.
Philadelphia Phillies (Day 1 Picks: 27th)
The Phillies don't pick again until No. 98 once they make their first selection, so they could take a big swing on upside. Given the success they found with Andrew Painter and Mick Abel in the first round, they look like one of the few teams that might be willing to pull the trigger on high school pitchers Charlee Soto or Travis Sykora in the first round.
"With Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, the Phillies have gone two-for-two with prep right-handers in the first round, which is both a high-risk demographic and one that some teams won't dip into twice in a decade," wrote McDaniel.
Washington Nationals (Day 1 Picks: 2nd, 40th)
The Nationals are going to walk away with one of the LSU standouts, and that player will immediately slot in behind James Wood as the No. 2 prospect in an up-and-coming farm system. Expect them to go with a high-ceiling high school player with their second selection on Day 2.
"I had a scout say to me that Washington is actually in the best position of any team in the draft – they like two players, and they'll get one of them, and the most likely outcome is that the Pirates take one of the two and the Nats don't even have to think before submitting a name on draft night," wrote Law.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs (Day 1 Picks: 13th, 68th)
Prep shortstop Arjun Nimmala had a "sterling private workout" with the Cubs, according to McDaniel, and there is growing buzz that he could be the pick at No. 13 overall. Unless they decide to reach a bit for Hurston Waldrep or roll the dice on Noble Meyer, the pick here will almost certainly be a hitter.
"The Cubs are sorting through several bats, with the high school group (Nimmala, Houck, Miller, Emerson, Eldridge) maybe ahead of the college crop (Taylor, Shaw, Gonzalez, Wilson, Bradfield)," wrote Callis.
Cincinnati Reds (Day 1 Picks: 7th, 38th, 43rd)
If things go haywire in the top five and Walker Jenkins or Max Clark somehow slide they won't get past the Reds. If everything plays out as expected at the top, it could come down to a decision between Wake Forest ace Rhett Lowder and Virginia catcher Kyle Teel.
"They're scouting every demographic and are most likely to take a college arm, with Lowder ahead of Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander," wrote Callis.
Milwaukee Brewers (Day 1 Picks: 18th, 33rd, 54th)
The last time the Brewers took a high school player in the first round was Brice Turang in 2018 when he fell further than expected down the draft board. They are in a prime position to keep that trend going this year given the number of college hitters expected to go in the 15-30 range, and Florida Atlantic first baseman Nolan Schanuel is a frequent link.
"The assumption is the Brewers will take someone very model-friendly, as they skew that way with a smaller scouting presence and have had some success with college position players in the last few drafts," wrote Law.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Day 1 Picks: 1st, 42nd, 67th)
LSU outfielder Dylan Crews has been the no-doubt selection for the Pirates for most of the spring, but there are some rumblings that it might take a $10 million bonus to get him to sign if he's willing to sign with Pittsburgh at all. A pivot to Paul Skenes at No. 1 overall or a below-slot deal with Wyatt Langford and Max Clark is now a legitimate possibility. Keep in mind, the Pirates went against the industry consensus when they took Henry Davis at No. 1 overall over Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar in 2021.
"Given the way I described the Pirates' situation in the most recent mock draft -- that the top three, and maybe top five, picks are a toss-up in terms of talent -- I think either Paul Skenes or Wyatt Langford makes sense at No. 1," wrote McDaniel.
St. Louis Cardinals (Day 1 Picks: 21st)
The Cardinals have drafted as well as anyone recently, including a 2020 draft class where they landed Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence and Alec Burleson. They will likely play it safe with a college bat at No. 21 overall before aiming for an above-slot deal with their next pick at No. 90 overall.
"The Cards are mostly tied to the tier of college bats who look to be much of what's available at their pick; (Tommy) Troy, Nolan Schanuel and Chase Davis are the more commonly mentioned options," wrote McDaniel.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks (Day 1 Picks: 12th, 48th, 64th)
The D-backs look like the floor for Grand Canyon shortstop Jacob Wilson who has the best hit tool in this draft class, but assuming he's already off the board, high school hitters are the frequent link. There seems to be some serious interest in Georgia prep shortstop Colin Houck, and he has been a popular target in recent mock drafts.
"The Diamondbacks probably will be choosing between high school infielders such as (Colin) Houck, (Arjun) Nimmala, third baseman Aidan Miller or shortstop Colt Emerson. If they opt for a college hitter, it could be (Tommy) Troy," wrote Callis.
Colorado Rockies (Day 1 Picks: 9th, 46th, 65th)
Unless the Cincinnati Reds pounce at No. 7 overall, Wake Forest right-hander Rhett Lowder to the Rockies at No. 9 is one of the safer predictions to be made. If he's gone, Chase Dollander, Hurston Waldrep, Noble Meyer and Thomas White are next up on the pitching board, with Ty Floyd as a potential reach.
"Heavy betting here that the Rockies take another college arm, as they did last year, with Lowder and Dollander the two most cited names," wrote Law.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Day 1 Picks: 36th, 60th)
The Dodgers are without a first-round pick for the second year in a row, but that didn't stop them from finding a top 100 prospect last year when they took Dalton Rushing at No. 40 overall. A lot will hinge on who is left on the board once they are finally on the clock, but Virginia prep outfielder Jonny Farmelo is one player who is reportedly on their radar.
"They've been tied to prep outfielder Farmelo, and if he's there, that feels like a classic Dodgers W," wrote McDaniel.
San Diego Padres (Day 1 Picks: 25th)
The Padres have often targeted players with one loud carrying tool, and it worked out well with prep slugger James Wood in 2021 as he ended up being one of the centerpieces in the Juan Soto blockbuster. They will likely swing for the fences with a high-ceiling player from what's left of the high school hitter crop.
"Prep position players are what the board is giving the Pads, so I'd expect that with their only Day 1 pick. Leading options are (Colt) Emerson, (George) Lombard Jr., (Bryce) Eldridge, Walker Martin, (Blake) Mitchell and (Jonny) Farmelo," wrote McDaniel.
San Francisco Giants (Day 1 Picks: 16th, 52nd, 69th)
College bats make the most sense in the Giants spot in the first round, but they could also target Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep. Polished college infielders Matt Shaw (Maryland) and Tommy Troy (Stanford) have been frequently mocked to the Giants all spring, and they would love to see Jacob Wilson (Grand Canyon) somehow fall this far. They might also be the team willing to give Bryce Eldridge a chance to play both ways.
"There's lots of college talent potentially available at their first pick: Tommy Troy, (Jacob) Wilson, Hurston Waldrep, Nolan Schanuel," wrote McDaniel.
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