MLB Teams Most Likely to Blow It Up at the 2023 Trade Deadline
At least from afar, there's nothing quite like watching an MLB team blow it up at the trade deadline by embracing an "everything must go" fire sale.
It's not "tanking" so much as it is admitting defeat for the current season by recouping some costs while ideally putting yourself in a better position to contend the following year.
Dumping any and all impending free agents just makes sense once you're too far back in the standings. And if you can also turn a player or two with a year or two of team control into a long-term asset/prospect, it's worth considering.
The Cubs, Nationals and Rangers all did it in 2021.
The A's and Reds did it last year, as did the Nationals again, to a lesser extent.
So, which teams fit the bill for a fire sale as we sit one month out from the 2023 trade deadline?
Our top five "blow it up" candidates aren't simply the teams at the bottom of the standings, as there's a fine line between being a seller and actually being in a position to have a fire sale. But we'll touch on all 30 teams and a whole lot of contract situations before homing in on the team best suited to swap its MLB talent for top prospects.
12 Teams That Absolutely Will Not Be Sellers
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We'll keep this initial section short and sweet, but we're going to at least mention all 30 teams, just so there's no possible argument that a team was forgotten about.
Barring an absolutely disastrous run through July, there is no chance that any of these 12 teams will be sellers at the trade deadline:
- Arizona Diamondbacks (49-34)
- Atlanta Braves (54-27)
- Baltimore Orioles (48-32)
- Cincinnati Reds* (44-38)
- Houston Astros (45-37)
- Los Angeles Angels (44-40)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (46-35)
- New York Yankees (45-36)
- San Francisco Giants (46-36)
- Tampa Bay Rays (57-28)
- Texas Rangers (49-33)
- Toronto Blue Jays (45-38)
*Given their record and the state of their starting rotation, the Reds are the ones most likely to fade over the next four weeks. Even if they were to crash and burn, though, they really don't have any impending free agents worth anything on the trade block, save for maybe Buck Farmer and/or Joey Votto. There could be a couple of small moves, but certainly no chance of a fire sale in Cincinnati.
8 Teams That Aren't Sellers Today...but Check Back in a Month
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Boston Red Sox (41-42): With one year of arbitration eligibility remaining for Alex Verdugo, would the Red Sox part with him and his .300ish batting average? If so, they could have quite the miniature fire sale, with James Paxton (unrestricted free agent) and Justin Turner ($13.4 million player option for 2024) also on their list of coveted assets. It's just a matter of whether they'll be willing to accept that a playoff spot likely isn't in the cards this year.
Chicago Cubs (38-42): If the Cubs do sell, they would get a lot of phone calls about Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, both of whom hold player/mutual options for next season that they are all but guaranteed to decline. There might also be some inquiries about Kyle Hendricks, who has a club option for 2024. But at just a few games back in the NL Central—with by far the best run differential in the division—Chicago presently looks more like a buyer than a seller.
Cleveland Guardians (39-42): Though their year-to-date numbers leave much to be desired, both Josh Bell ($16.5 million player option for 2024) and Amed Rosario (free agent to be) heated up in June and have become tradeable assets. If it embraces a deadline sale, there's also a chance Cleveland would deal Shane Bieber, who has one year of team control remaining before reaching free agency for the first time in November 2024. But it's unlikely the Guardians fall far enough back in the dreadful AL Central to justify selling.
Miami Marlins (48-35): At 13 games above .500, the Marlins are the least likely seller in this bunch, as they could go 6-20 in July and still be hovering around .500. But if they do collapse, impending free agents Jorge Soler, Dylan Floro, Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle and Yuli Gurriel would all generate a fair amount of interest on the trade block. They could also afford to part with at least one of their young starting pitchers, all of whom are under team control through at least 2026 and could be worth quite the platter of prospects.
Milwaukee Brewers (43-39): Milwaukee remains the favorite to win the NL Central, and doesn't have much to offer in terms of players hitting free agency this November. The Brewers would have to really fall apart in July to consider selling. But if they wanted to have a fire sale and start trading off some of their stars hitting free agency after next season—Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, etc.—they could put together the sport's best farm system in a hurry.
Minnesota Twins (41-42): Like the Guardians, the state of the AL Central should keep Minnesota from selling. The Twins are two games below .500 yet right in the thick of a playoff race. But they do have seven impending free agents, including Sonny Gray amid an AL Cy Young campaign, Joey Gallo slugging better than last year, Michael A. Taylor working on a 20-homer, 20-steal season and Kenta Maeda looking solid in his first two starts back from two months on the IL. In the unlikely event they sell, the Twins could provide quite the infusion to the trade block.
Philadelphia Phillies (43-38): The Phillies are 2.5 games back of a wild-card spot and would never dream of throwing in the towel right now. They wouldn't even have much to trade if they did wave the white flag, as their third-most valuable impending free agent is Josh Harrison, who has a negative-0.6 bWAR. But if they were to make both Aaron Nola and Craig Kimbrel available, there would be plenty of interest.
Seattle Mariners (38-42): Like the Phillies, Seattle doesn't have much to offer. The M's have just four impending free agents, two of whom—Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock—are mired in some kind of hideous battle for the worst batting average in the majors. But as far as two-month-rental hitters are concerned, Teoscar Hernández would be one of the best ones on the trade block. They could at least get something decent for him.
3 Sellers Without Much to Sell
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Kansas City Royals (23-59): The one big trade chip that we all knew would come out of Kansas City was Aroldis Chapman. And, in fact, the seven-time All-Star, 35-year-old lefty on a one-year, $3.75 million deal has already gone down as the first noteworthy player traded, shipped to the Texas Rangers this past Friday.
Beyond that, unless the Royals can convince Zack Greinke ($8.5 million plus innings-based incentives) or Salvador Perez ($20 million in 2023, $20 million in 2024, $22 million in 2025, $13.5 million club option for 2026) to void their full no-trade clauses, there's just not much here that A) a contender would want and B) Kansas City would be willing to give up.
Oakland Athletics (22-62): At some point, the A's have to actually start building for the future, right?
Sure, they could put players like Brent Rooker, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz and JP Sears on the trade block and get some good prospects for guys who are under team control for the next half-decade. But having already traded basically every tradeable player in the organization over the past 16 months, what's the point in kicking the can even further down the line?
What Oakland should be willing to part with is anyone 29 or older. But the only members of that club providing any tangible value are starting pitcher Paul Blackburn and reliever Austin Pruitt. Look for that duo to be on the move, but probably not much else.
Washington Nationals (33-48): The big one here is third baseman Jeimer Candelario. The Nats signed the former Tiger to a one-year, $5 million deal, and he has been their best player. Better yet, he is going to be the best third baseman on the trade block by a country mile, so things could get interesting if two or more contenders—perhaps some combination of the Phillies, Brewers, Yankees and Marlins—decide to make upgrading at the hot corner a priority.
But unless they're trying to sell high on Lane Thomas' hot June by dealing the outfielder with two years of team control remaining, it's tough to see the Nationals doing much aside from moving Candelario. (If someone wants to take Patrick Corbin and the $35.4 million he's owed next season, though, GM Mike Rizzo is all ears.)
2 Underachievers Who Maybe Should Sell but Probably Won't
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New York Mets (36-46): It's never a good sign when your owner holds a press conference to announce he is "preparing all contingencies" ahead of the trade deadline.
Steve Cohen and the Mets spared no expense this offseason, putting together a roster that could cost nearly half a billion dollars by the time the luxury-tax payment comes due. But all they have to show for it is 10 fewer wins than losses and an irate fanbase.
If the Mets do embrace a deadline sale, the low-hanging fruit are the impending unrestricted free agents: Carlos Carrasco, David Robertson and Tommy Pham. They also have five players with options for 2024, by far the biggest of which is Max Scherzer's $43.3 million player option.
If my math is correct, trading all eight of those players would save the Mets approximately $34.6 million in prorated salary, while trimming more than $75 million from next year's payroll. It would also save them about $27.65 million in luxury tax this season, as everything above $290 million for a second-time offender is subject to an 80 percent tax.
Cohen has said he "already considers the money spent," but if the Mets are still nowhere close to a playoff spot a month from now, how stubborn do you have to be to not at least look into recouping more than $60 million?
San Diego Padres (37-45): While the Mets could not possibly sell off enough of their exorbitant payroll to get back below the $233 million luxury-tax threshold, the Padres—who paid a luxury tax in both 2021 and 2022 and are in line to get whacked with stiffer penalties as back-to-back-to-back offenders—could maybe trade away enough players to pull it off.
It would need to be a serious fire sale, though.
Impending free agents Blake Snell and Josh Hader are making $30.7 million combined this season, so trading that duo would save the Padres around $10 million in prorated salary. Trading Juan Soto ($23 million) would save them another $8-ish million.
But Spotrac's luxury-tax tracker projects the Padres at nearly $45 million over the limit, so even trading those three stars only gets them part of the way there. (Though, those trades would at least help bolster the farm system in a big way.)
They are nine games back in the wild-card race, but they might as well just go down with the ship, hope the bats wake up and worry about resetting that tax clock during the offseason.
Fifth-Best Fire Sale Candidate: Detroit Tigers (35-46)
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Unrestricted Free Agents: SP Michael Lorenzen ($8.5 million), 2B Jonathan Schoop ($7.5 million), RP Jose Cisnero ($2.2875 million), OF Jake Marisnick ($1.3 million), RP Chasen Shreve ($1.25 million)
Other Trade Candidates: SS Javier Báez ($22 million in 2023; four-year, $98 million player option for 2024-27), SP Eduardo Rodriguez ($14 million in 2023; three-year, $49 million player option for 2024-26), RP Tyler Alexander ($1.875 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025)
It's not the biggest fire sale as far as the quantity of players is concerned.
But Detroit could unload a couple of impending free agents and also put itself in a position to enter the offseason without a single contract figure on the books.
Right now, the only two known salaries beyond this season are Báez's four-year player option and Rodriguez's three-year player option. (There's also a $30 million option for Miguel Cabrera that vests if he finishes top-10 in the AL MVP vote this year, but, uh, I think we can rule that out.)
Barring another, more significant injury, Rodriguez's player option is as good as gone. He had a 2.13 ERA through 11 starts and was on his way to potentially starting for the AL in the All-Star Game before rupturing a tendon in his finger. He should easily get more than $49 million over three seasons by hitting the open market and should be treated like a two-month rental on the trade block.
Báez is another story, and trading him will pose a challenge for the Tigers.
From 2017 to '21, he was the 20th-most valuable position player in the majors, per FanGraphs. But that two-time All-Star never made it to Detroit. What was an .815 OPS during that half-decade has plummeted to a .643 mark over the past season-and-a-half.
But maybe, just maybe, someone (Seattle? San Francisco?) will believe he just needs a change of scenery and will embrace the possibility of being stuck with him for $98 million for the next four seasons.
Fourth-Best Fire Sale Candidate: Colorado Rockies (33-51)
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Unrestricted Free Agents: OF/DH Charlie Blackmon ($15.33 million), OF Randal Grichuk ($10.33 million), OF Jurickson Profar ($7.75 million), 1B C.J. Cron ($7.25 million), RP Pierce Johnson ($5 million), RP Brent Suter ($3 million), SP Chase Anderson ($720,000), C Jorge Alfaro ($720,000)
Other Trade Candidates: RP Brad Hand ($1.5 million in 2023, $7 million club option in 2024), C Elias Díaz ($5.5 million in 2023, $6 million in 2024), RP Daniel Bard ($9.5 million in 2023, $9.5 million in 2024)
In Kris Bryant, Kyle Freeland, Ryan McMahon and Antonio Senzatela, the Rockies have four long-term contracts going nowhere fast. That quartet will make a combined average of $68.3 million per year from 2024 to '26.
As such, there's no chance of Colorado blowing things up and starting over from scratch quite like the Tigers could.
Still, eight impending free agents plus three other guys signed through next season who could have some suitors is quite the formula for a fire sale.
The trade value here resides primarily with the hitters, specifically Cron, Díaz and Grichuk, with Profar lurking as a buy-low candidate who hit 15 home runs in 2022.
Prior to this season, Grichuk was never one to hit for average, batting .247 with 175 home runs. But he has spent most of this year at or above the .300 mark. His power isn't what it used to be, but he's still putting up one of the best OPSs of his career. He's basically this year's Andrew Benintendi of the trade block.
Cron's power is also a fraction of what it was just last season, but maybe he'll start slugging again now that he's back from his time on the IL with back spasms. Before the season, we expected him to be one of the biggest names moved at the deadline.
What will the Rockies actually get for those bats? Probably not much. But it sure would be cool if they actually trade away some of their expiring assets for a change.
Third-Best Fire Sale Candidate: Pittsburgh Pirates (39-42)
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Unrestricted Free Agents: SP Rich Hill ($8 million), 1B/DH Carlos Santana ($6.725 million), OF/DH Andrew McCutchen ($5 million), C Austin Hedges ($5 million), 1B Ji-Man Choi ($4.65 million)
Other Trade Candidates: SP Mitch Keller ($2.4375 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025), RP David Bednar ($745,000 in 2023, arbitration-eligible through 2026)
The Pirates have been just about the worst team in baseball since the beginning of May, meaning it's time to try to unload all of the one-year deals they signed this offseason.
One of those ($3.15 million for Vince Velasquez) is already a sunk cost, as he underwent season-ending elbow surgery a few weeks ago. But they can still recoup some of the costs allotted to the likes of McCutchen, Santana, and everyone's favorite 43-year-old baseball player, Dick Mountain.
The real intrigue comes in whether the Pirates try to find out what they could get for their two most valuable pitchers.
Bednar's name was mentioned a ton at last year's trade deadline, and he has been even better this season, sitting on a 1.44 ERA after recording his 16th save Thursday. And with three years of team control remaining after this one, he would be—with no close runner-up—the premier reliever on the market, if he's actually available.
Keller would also be a hot commodity, having made 11 quality starts in his 17 turns through the rotation. The 27-year-old righty had a sub-4.00 ERA last year, but he has kicked it up a notch, significantly improving each of his strikeout rate, walk rate and hit rate. And he has two years of team control remaining. He wouldn't fetch quite the same return as Dylan Cease (also with two years of arbitration eligibility left) would for the White Sox, but Keller would surely ignite a bidding war.
The question is: Would the return for Bednar and Keller actually put Pittsburgh in a better position to contend for a World Series before 28-year-old Bryan Reynolds is past his prime?
If so, why not go for it?
Second-Best Fire Sale Candidate: St. Louis Cardinals (33-47)
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Unrestricted Free Agents: SP Adam Wainwright ($18.5 million), SP Jordan Montgomery ($10 million), SP Jack Flaherty ($5.4 million), RP Drew VerHagen ($3 million), RP Chris Stratton ($2.8 million), RP Jordan Hicks ($1.8375 million)
Other Trade Candidates: 1B Paul Goldschmidt ($26 million in 2023, $26 million in 2024), OF Tyler O'Neill ($4.95 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024), SS Paul DeJong ($9.17 million in 2023, $12.5 million club option for 2024, $15 million club option for 2025)
Most likely, the Cardinals will keep it simple and just unload a few of the unrestricted free agents.
Wainwright won't be going anywhere, but Montgomery has emerged as one of the top names on the trade block, while Hicks notching five consecutive saves with his year-to-date 14.0 K/9 has surely raised a lot of eyebrows around the league. Flaherty should also generate a fair amount of buzz, pending his performance in July.
But the Cardinals sure could spice things up by dangling the likes of Goldschmidt, O'Neill and DeJong on the trade block.
What's wild is they could trade all three of those position players and still have somewhat of a lineup logjam heading into next season. They'd have an infield of Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado, plus the possibility of top prospect Masyn Winn being ready to make his mark on the majors in 2024. And in the outfield, they'd still have Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar.
That isn't to say the reigning NL MVP is "expendable," but the Cardinals could trade Goldy and still be in good shape to contend again in 2024—particularly if they are able to trade him for (among other pieces) a starting pitcher who could help them next season.
As far as a possible trading partner for Goldschmidt is concerned, the Astros are much less desperate for a first baseman now that José Abreu's bat has woken up from a brutal first two-plus months. But if the Padres are buying instead of selling, this could be what they're buying, as they have gotten absolutely nothing out of first base this season. Per Baseball Reference splits, "San Diego 1B" (mostly Jake Cronenworth) has a triple-slash of .182/.281/.315.
Best Fire Sale Candidate: Chicago White Sox (36-48)
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Unrestricted Free Agents: C Yasmani Grandal ($18.25 million), SP Lucas Giolito ($10.4 million), RP Reynaldo López ($3.625 million), SS/2B Elvis Andrus ($3 million), RP Keynan Middleton ($750,000)
Other Trade Candidates: SP Lance Lynn ($18.5 million in 2023, $18 million club option in 2024), RP Liam Hendriks ($14.3 million in 2023, $15 million club option in 2024), SS Tim Anderson ($12.5 million in 2023, $14 million club option in 2024), RP Joe Kelly ($9 million in 2023, $9.5 million club option in 2024), SP Mike Clevinger ($8 million in 2023, $12 million mutual option in 2024), RP Kendall Graveman ($8 million in 2023, $8 million in 2024), SP Dylan Cease ($5.7 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025), SP Michael Kopech ($2.05 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025)
Even in the no-good, very-bad AL Central, the White Sox have been unable to keep pace, sitting 12 games below .500. They do still have 22 games remaining against Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, Colorado and Washington, but it's probably time to throw in the towel.
The question is: How far do they want to throw said towel?
Just between the players hitting unrestricted free agency and those with club/mutual options for next season, the White Sox could trade up to 10 players. Giolito and Anderson are the two biggest names, but they could get a decent haul of prospects across that collection of trade candidates.
But if they want to really hit the reset button by also parting with one (or both) of their 27-year-old starting pitchers under 2.5 more years of team control (Cease and Kopech), those are the types of trade pieces teams lose their minds over.
Just last season, the Reds traded both Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle with 1.5 years remaining before free agency, and they got all sorts of quality prospects for those pitchers, including Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Chicago could fetch a king's ransom for Cease, and/or quite the pretty penny for Kopech.
Trade away either of those pitchers, though, and Chicago's rotation could be a disaster over the course of the next few years, effectively wasting more prime years of the Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez nucleus. So, we'll see how aggressive the White Sox decide to get, even though they are in a prime position to reload their way through a rapid rebuild.
Statistics and records current through the start of play Saturday.
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