2023 NBA Draft Lottery: Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake

It's about to be a fortune-changing kind of night in the Association.

The 2023 NBA draft lottery will be held Tuesday night, meaning the entire hoops world will soon learn which team is about to add French 7-footer Victor Wembanyama and the other high-end prospects behind him.

This is a major night for all of the rebuilders, though you could argue none has the most at stake since they're all in dire need of young talent. Would it help the Houston Rockets or Charlotte Hornets to land Wembanyama? No question. However, they could still get great mileage out of adding someone like Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller or one of the Thompson twins.

Meanwhile, there are a pair of win-now clubs that need this night to go their direction, or it could throw their entire offseason off course.

After laying out the lottery odds, we'll break down those two teams here.

NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images

PARIS, FRANCE - JANUARY 18: Cade Cunningham #2 and Jayden Ivey #23 of the Detroit Pistons talk during practice and media availability as part of NBA Paris Games 2023 at the Palais des sports Marcel-Cerdan on January 18, 2023 in Paris, France. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Detroit Pistons: 14 percent

Houston Rockets: 14 percent

San Antonio Spurs: 14 percent

Charlotte Hornets: 12.5 percent

Portland Trail Blazers: 10.5 percent

Orlando Magic: 9 percent

Indiana Pacers: 6.8 percent

Washington Wizards: 6.7 percent

Utah Jazz: 4.5 percent

Dallas Mavericks: 3 percent (top-10 protected)

Chicago Bulls: 1.8 percent (top-four protected)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 1.7 percent

Toronto Raptors: 1 percent

New Orleans Pelicans: 0.5 percent

Portland Trail Blazers

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - MARCH 22: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers brings the ball up court during the second half against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Arena on March 22, 2023 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

The Portland Trail Blazers just tanked their way through the stretch run for the second consecutive season. While they weren't the only team racing to the bottom, they are the only tanker with a 32-year-old franchise face in Damian Lillard.

Sooner than later, Portland will have to fully commit to a direction: Either chasing maximum competitiveness with Lillard or clearing him out to rebuild around Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. The only potential exception would be if the Blazers jumped to No. 1, as adding Wembanyama could help them win both now and later.

If they can't get Wembanyama, though, then it's time to make that decision, because if Lillard is sticking around, he can't wait on a patient draft-and-develop team strategy.

He would either need Portland to cash in its long-term trade chips (quite possibly including this lottery pick) for established talent.

If the Blazers can't envision forming a contender around Lillard, then it's time to start heavily shopping him. Trading an elite talent with this type of history with the team is never easy, but Portland could reasonably expect to land a major haul for him. He did, after all, just pump in a personal-best 32.2 points per game with 7.3 assists, numbers that should greatly appeal to any win-now shopper.

Dallas Mavericks

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 02: Kyrie Irving #2 and Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks react against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena on April 02, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Dallas Mavericks have a 24-year-old superstar in Luka Dončić, yet they are already facing a time crunch with him. They need to prove they can compete for titles with him—this season's slide from the conference finals to the lottery hardly sent that message—and do it quickly.

The problem is this roster isn't good enough to contend, and there aren't great assets to help it reach that level. Dallas dealt some of its best ones to land Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline—costing the club Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and a 2029 first-round pick—and flat-lined shortly after the swap. The Mavs could re-sign Irving and have more chances to compete with him, but this group clearly needs more.

That's why Dallas needs to get in the basketball gods' good graces ahead of the lottery. Leaping into the top four would be a massive win, but more than anything, the Mavs can't afford to fall back. If their pick slips out of the top 10, then it belongs to the New York Knicks to pay off a debt owed from the 2019 trade for Kristaps Porziņģis.

Dallas is woefully short on trade sweeteners. Josh Green and Jaden Hardy aren't needle-moving prospects, and the Mavs still owe firsts to the Knicks (top-10 protected through 2025) and the Nets (2029). If Dallas can make a big trade this summer, it almost certainly needs this selection to help grease the gears of that swap.