Way-Too-Early 2023 MLB Playoff Predictions
With a little over 10 percent of the 2023 MLB regular season finished, the time has come for updated postseason projections.
At this point in the schedule, we're all still trying to separate fact from fiction.
For instance, is Philadelphia actually the second-best team in Pennsylvania?
Are Texas and Arizona legitimately the best teams out west?
And is Tampa Bay going to end the season as the best team in the majors?
For this exercise, we thought it would be fun to dig up our really way-too-early projections from the day after the 2022 World Series ended to do a little comparing and contrasting.
For what it's worth, seven of the 12 projected postseason teams remain the same as they were more than six months ago. However, four of the six division winners, the No. 1 seeds in each league and the projected World Series champion are all different now that we're a few weeks into the 2023 campaign.
We'll go division by division with updated projected win totals for every team before putting a bow on it all with rapid-fire, round-by-round predictions for the entire postseason.
Statistics and records current through the start of play Wednesday.
American League East
1 of 7
Biggest change since early November: Tampa Bay became a juggernaut
During their 13-0 start to the regular season, the Tampa Bay Rays outscored their competition by a combined total of 101-30. At the time, the next-best run differential behind TBR's plus-71 was Milwaukee's at plus-25.
We all marveled at the pitching staff allowing just 2.3 runs per game, but the offense was even more impressive. At the end of play on April 13, no other team had scored 80 runs. Yet, there sat the Rays at 101, averaging 7.8 runs per game.
The injury bug is doing everything in its power to keep this team grounded, focusing all of its voodoo on the starting rotation. Tyler Glasnow (oblique) has yet to pitch this season and isn't expected back until at least mid-May. Jeffrey Springs left his third start with an arm injury and is done for the year, slated for Tommy John surgery. Big offseason acquisition, Zach Eflin, made two starts before landing on the IL with lower-back tightness, though it at least sounds like he may be able to return to the mound this weekend.
It's a good thing this franchise knows a thing or two about using openers for a bullpen game, because there might be quite a few of those in their near future.
Still, the Rays have the best record in baseball and should be able to withstand a few weeks of trying to hold the rotation together with Band-Aids, provided that the offense continues destroying opposing starting rotations with regularity.
If they slip, though, there will be plenty of teams champing at the bit to win the AL East. Heading into play Wednesday, the entire division was .500 or better.
Projected AL East Standings
1. Tampa Bay Rays (98-64)
2. New York Yankees (95-67) (wild card)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) (wild card)
4. Baltimore Orioles (82-80)
5. Boston Red Sox (76-86)
American League Central
2 of 7
Biggest change since early November: Minnesota is the team to beat
The Twins collapsed in rather spectacular fashion last season. They entered play on Labor Day at 68-64, tied with Cleveland for the AL Central lead. They went 10-20 the rest of the way, finishing 14 games behind the Guardians.
But while Cleveland did very little this offseason aside from signing Josh Bell, Minnesota did a ton of wheeling and dealing to put together a squad better equipped to win the division in 2023.
After a long saga involving the Giants, the Mets and a lot of "medical history" discourse, Minnesota ended up re-signing Carlos Correa to a long-term deal. It also landed Christian Vázquez, Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano in free agency, and traded for Pablo López, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer.
And all seven of those guys have already paid dividends for the first-place Twins.
López is looking like a solid early candidate for the AL Cy Young. Both Vázquez and Solano are hitting over .300. Taylor and Gallo are tied for the team lead in home runs with three apiece. (Even though Gallo has only played in seven games.) Correa is heating up after a slow start and a minor back injury. And Farmer was playing a key role in the middle infield prior to taking a Lucas Giolito fastball to the jaw. (No timetable on a return to action there, but get well soon, Kyle.)
Factor in Kenta Maeda returning to the starting rotation after missing all of 2022, a bullpen doing a stellar job and Byron Buxton (knock on wood) avoiding any significant injuries thus far, and the Twins have emerged as the best team in the AL Central.
Should only get better once Jorge Polanco (currently on a rehab assignment for a knee injury) is able to make his 2023 debut, too.
Projected AL Central Standings
1. Minnesota Twins (90-72)
2. Cleveland Guardians (88-74)
3. Chicago White Sox (76-86)
4. Detroit Tigers (62-100)
5. Kansas City Royals (60-102)
American League West
3 of 7
Biggest change since early November: Texas revamped its starting rotation and is thriving in spite of that rotation's early struggles
The Rangers went all-in on starting pitching this offseason, putting together a six-man rotation making more than $100 million this year alone.
They signed Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million deal. They also signed Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney to less-lucrative-but-still-eight-figure salaries. They brought back Martín Pérez with the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi and already had Jon Gray signed through 2025.
Thus far, however, the new pitchers haven't amounted to much.
DeGrom has been a substantial improvement upon what Texas got from most of its rotation in 2022, but his 3.48 ERA is almost a full run higher than the 2.52 mark he posted over the previous nine seasons with the Mets. Plus, he has already had multiple injury scares, including leaving his most recent start with a sore wrist.
Heaney has a 4.97 ERA. Eovaldi is sitting at 5.40. And Odorizzi is going to miss the entire season after undergoing surgery on his shoulder in early April.
Not exactly what Texas had in mind when putting these pieces together.
Nevertheless, the Rangers are alone in first place in the AL West while both Houston and Seattle work through some early struggles.
With both Corey Seager (hamstring) and Mitch Garver (knee) expected to be on the IL for about a month, maintaining that lead in the division will be a considerable challenge once Houston snaps out of its early funk. But Texas legitimately might finish ahead of Seattle and edge out the AL Central's first runner-up for a wild-card spot.
Projected AL West Standings
1. Houston Astros (92-70)
2. Texas Rangers (89-73) (wild card)
3. Seattle Mariners (85-77)
4. Los Angeles Angels (77-85)
5. Oakland A's (47-115)
National League East
4 of 7
Biggest change since early November: The Phillies can't pitch
Fresh off reaching the World Series, the Phillies made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason with their acquisition of Trea Turner. They also signed Taijuan Walker, Matt Strahm and Craig Kimbrel in hopes of beefing up the pitching staff, traded for two-time All-Star Gregory Soto and took flyers on Josh Harrison and Cristian Pache to add some depth to the lineup.
They've also gotten unexpectedly great contributions out of Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa, each of whom is batting well north of .300 while playing pretty much every day.
The net result is a team that is...*checks notes*...7-11 overall and already 7.0 games back in the NL East?
This despite getting to play seven of its first 16 games against the Cincinnati Reds?
What the heck is going on here?
Simply put, the pitching staff has drastically under-delivered.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler had been two of the most reliable pitchers in baseball over the previous half-decade. However, those co-aces have struggled out of the gate, especially Nola, who has a 5.91 ERA through four starts. Meanwhile, Walker is unfortunately living up to his name by walking guys left and right. And the bullpen has been a catastrophe with a collective 6.30 ERA.
Maybe the Phillies repeat last year's script and figure things out after a rocky start. If Nola and Wheeler turn a corner just in time for Ranger Suárez and Bryce Harper to return from the IL, that sounds like the recipe for a big postseason push.
But what if Nola is headed for a repeat of his 4.63 ERA in 2021? And Harper doesn't make it back until after Memorial Day? While Stott, Marsh and Sosa all cool off considerably, putting even more pressure on the pitching staff?
That'd be a recipe for disaster.
Projected NL East Standings
1. Atlanta Braves (98-64)
2. New York Mets (93-69) (wild card)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)
4. Miami Marlins (71-91)
5. Washington Nationals (55-107)
National League Central
5 of 7
Biggest change since early November: St. Louis might not be very good
Throughout the offseason, the NL Central felt destined for a repeat of 2022: a two-horse race between Milwaukee and St. Louis.
But while the Brewers have more than held up their end of the bargain with one of the best records in the majors, the Cardinals have sputtered down into the basement of the division—this despite 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and second runner-up Nolan Arenado each getting out to solid starts, and rookie Jordan Walker having that historic 12-game hitting streak to open his MLB career.
Much like the Phillies, though, pitching has been a colossal struggle in the early going for St. Louis.
Miles Mikolas was the ace of last year's staff, but he has been shelled in three of his four starts to the tune of an 8.10 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. And here's the worse news: As far as FIP is concerned, Mikolas entered play on Wednesday as St. Louis' second-best starter, as Steven Matz (6.48 ERA, 1.80 WHIP) and Jake Woodford (5.65 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) have not pitched well at all, and Jack Flaherty's 2.95 ERA is a whole lot of smoke and mirrors with 17 walks through 21.1 innings pitched.
Hopefully Adam Wainwright (groin) will be able to make his season debut before the end of April, but banking on a 41-year-old starting pitcher was a scary proposition long before he landed on the IL.
St. Louis went 45-25 over its final 70 games of last season, but 46 of those games were against the Cubs, Pirates, Reds, Rockies and Nationals, and Albert Pujols had a 1.092 OPS during that stretch. Without the benefit of both that schedule and that soon-to-be Hall of Famer's unexpected resurgence, perhaps the Cardinals are just a .500-ish team.
Projected NL Central Standings
1. Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (85-77)
3. Chicago Cubs (81-81)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
5. Cincinnati Reds (65-97)
National League West
6 of 7
Biggest change since early November: Arizona is even better than we thought it could be
Admittedly, most of our way-too-early projections from right after the World Series weren't all that bold. Only three teams (Arizona, Houston and Texas) were penciled in for at least 11 more/fewer wins than they recorded in 2022.
Arizona improving from a middling 74-win squad to an 86-win postseason flirter was one of the most intrepid forecasts. However, it appears even that wasn't bold enough, as the Diamondbacks have been one of the most impressive teams in the early going.
What's most astounding about Arizona's position atop the NL West is that several pivotal players have drastically underachieved.
Christian Walker, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy all entered play on Wednesday hitting .203 or worse. Gabriel Moreno finally hit his first home run Tuesday night. He and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have been just OK since arriving via the Daulton Varsho trade. And Madison Bumgarner has been a disaster, making a spirited push toward the top (or bottom?) of the "worst active contracts" leaderboard.
Nevertheless, the Snakes are four games above .500 while the rest of the division sits at .500 or worse. And they've already played eight of their 13 regular-season games against the Dodgers, winning five of them.
Now, would we actually recommend betting anything you can't afford to lose on Arizona winning the NL West? Absolutely not. The DraftKings odds (+1100) are still relatively slim, with Fernando Tatis Jr. about to make his return to San Diego and with Los Angeles boasting one of the most potent offenses.
But Arizona at +300 to make the postseason?
That might not be a bad idea.
Projected NL West Standings
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (96-66)
2. San Diego Padres (92-70) (wild card)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) (wild card)
4. San Francisco Giants (81-81)
5. Colorado Rockies (64-98)
Projecting the Postseason
7 of 7
Wild Card Series
NL1: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
NL2: No. 4 New York Mets over No. 5 San Diego Padres
AL1: No. 6 Texas Rangers over No. 3 Minnesota Twins
AL2: No. 4 New York Yankees over No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays
Division Series
NL1: No. 1 Atlanta Braves over No. 4 New York Mets
NL2: No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks
AL1: No. 4 New York Yankees over No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays
AL2: No. 2 Houston Astros over No. 6 Texas Rangers
Championship Series
NL: No. 1 Atlanta Braves over No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers
AL: No. 4 New York Yankees over No. 2 Houston Astros
World Series
Atlanta Braves over New York Yankees
Got to keep it short and sweet in justifying picks that will likely be different five months from now, if not five weeks from now. That said, Atlanta looks special with Ronald Acuña Jr. back to playing at an MVP level and Spencer Strider striking out opponents at an outrageous clip. And while Tampa Bay is the pick to win the AL East, New York will be all sorts of difficult to beat in October with a theoretically healthy rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino.
