Fact or Fiction: What to Believe from NFL's Latest 2023 Mock Draft Trends
The 2023 NFL draft is just around the corner, making this the ideal time to study the latest mocks from some of the most knowledgeable experts in the field.
While these analysts are well-connected and have proved their insight with plenty of correct predictions over the years, no one is batting 1000. There are too many moving pieces, smoke screens, draft-day deals, shocking reaches, surprising falls and other factors that lead to results no one could have seen coming.
That won't stop us from trying to make sense of some of the trends showing up in these mocks and guessing whether they are onto something or if there's reason to believe they are wrong.
The mocks considered were created by Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay of ESPN, Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network, The Athletic's Dane Brugler, The Ringer's Danny Kelly and our own Bleacher Report Scouting Department.
With that in mind, let's play fact or fiction with some consensus trends from these mock drafts.
Bryce Young Edging C.J. Stroud for No. 1 Overall
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Ever since the Carolina Panthers traded to the top of the 2023 draft last month, speculation has run rampant regarding which quarterback they will select.
There are two seemingly viable choices in Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, although Florida's Anthony Richardson did put himself in the discussion after a world-class performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
While Stroud once seemed to be the consensus choice for Carolina, that has begun to shift in recent weeks. Most of the latest mocks now have Young coming off the board at No. 1 overall.
Brugler, Kiper, Jeremiah and the B/R Scouting Department all believe the Alabama signal-caller will be the first to hear his name called on April 27.
While McShay and Kelly still have Stroud going to Carolina, the latest rumors don't support this projection.
According to ESPN's David Newton, "multiple executive sources believe Young simply is the better player." ESPN's Matt Miller polled his sources and found that "Young has pulled back in front of Stroud."
ESPN's Adam Schefter went as far as to say that taking a meeting with the Houston Texans, who are picking at No. 2 overall, would be a "waste of time" for Young.
The betting odds agree. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Young recently became the odds-on favorite at -450 ($450 bet wins $100). It's a stark shift from last month, when Stroud was heavy chalk to be the first player drafted.
Money talks in a situation like this. Between the betting trends and the latest insider information, it looks like the experts have it right that Young will be the top overall pick in 2023.
Fact: Bryce Young will be drafted No. 1 overall.
Quentin Johnston Falling to Late-First, Early-Second Round
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Quentin Johnston is one of the most gifted wideouts in the 2023 class, but most experts aren't too high on him in their latest mock drafts.
The B/R Scouting Department posted the only mock in which the TCU star lands inside of the top 20, while two of the mocks we looked at—Brugler's and Kiper's—have the prolific receiver falling all the way to the second round.
The league even opted not to invite Johnston to attend the draft in person to avoid a potentially awkward situation.
Johnston does have his flaws. B/R NFL Scout Derrik Klassen highlighted his penchant for uncontested drops and sluggishness off the line. But he's still arguably one of the top overall talents, if not the top overall talent, at his position in this class.
The 21-year-old has all the unteachable qualities a team could want in a wideout. He stands at a massive 6'3", 208 pounds and posted a ridiculous 40 ½-inch vertical and an 11'2" broad jump at the combine. After he ran a sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash at his pro day, there should be zero doubts about his athleticism.
Factor in that Johnston is coming off a productive 1,000-plus-yard season, and it would be hard to fault any team for making the Horned Frogs product the first receiver off the board this year. The B/R Scouting Department ranked him as the top player at his position and the No. 11 overall prospect in the class.
Despite Johnston's impressive blend of size and athleticism, Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems to be the wideout most experts believe will be taken first. The Ohio State star is off the board by No. 20 in all six mocks studied, going as high as No. 11 in McShay's version.
With a slew of teams needing help at the receiver position and the veteran market almost barren outside of a pricy trade candidate in DeAndre Hopkins, it's conceivable that Johnston will come off the board far earlier than these mock drafts are suggesting and should be a top-20 pick. It's even possible he'll be the first player at his position taken.
Fiction: Quentin Johnston will instead be drafted in the top 20.
Cardinals Trading Out from No. 3
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One of the most popular trade predictions has been the Arizona Cardinals moving down from No. 3 overall. It's far from a controversial projection, given the club is committed to quarterback Kyler Murray and several rival franchises have shown an interest in moving up to secure a passer of their own.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, at least six organizations have reached out to Arizona regarding the third pick so far.
While it seems most are in agreement that the Cardinals will at least give heavy consideration to moving down, it is uncertain how far the squad would be willing to slide.
The B/R Scouting Department, Kelly and McShay all have the Cardinals trading with the Indianapolis Colts for a package headlined by the No. 4 overall pick.
Kiper has Arizona moving all the way down to No. 11, swinging a trade with the Tennessee Titans that allows the team to draft a potential franchise signal-caller in Anthony Richardson.
Brugler and Jeremiah both have the Cards standing pat. But the former called No. 3 "the pick most likely to be traded," and the latter said he "won't be surprised" if the Cardinals flip this selection to the Colts, noting that the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders could also be in play.
If Arizona stays at No. 3, it would likely be to draft Will Anderson Jr., a generational edge-rushing talent who rates as the top overall prospect on the latest Bleacher Report Scouting Department big board. Both Brugler and Jeremiah paired the Cardinals with the Alabama standout.
As tempting as Anderson may be at No. 3, the team could have its cake and eat it too. A trade with Indianapolis makes the most sense in that regard, allowing the Cardinals to bring in additional assets while also ending up with the best overall player in the class.
It now remains to be seen just how much the Colts will be willing to part with to ensure they don't get leapfrogged by a rival franchise in pursuit of a quarterback.
Fact: Cardinals will trade down from No. 3 overall.
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Bijan Robinson Is Not Getting Selected Early
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Bijan Robinson is not only the top running back available this year, but he's also one of the most intriguing talents at any position in the 2023 class. The Texas product earned a rare 9.0 grade from the Bleacher Report Scouting Department and ranked No. 4 overall on its latest big board.
Despite his unreal mix of athleticism, size (5'11", 215 lbs) and skill, not a single one of the six mock drafts we've looked at has Robinson coming off the board before the 14th selection. Two of them have him falling to No. 20 or later, as Kelly picked him to go No. 20 and the B/R Scouting Department put him the lowest of all at No. 22.
Given that the importance of individual running backs has diminished in recent years to a non-premium position, it's not far-fetched to think Robinson could fall. There's been plenty of classes in which a back did not come off the board on Day 1, including last year, when Breece Hall was the first selected at No. 36.
Almost all of those classes lacked a back as gifted as Robinson, however. The Score's Jordan Schultz quoted an NFL executive who called the Longhorns star one of the top RB talents they've seen "over the past 10-plus years," while ESPN's Jordan Reid said in September "many scouts believe Robinson is the best overall running back prospect since Saquon Barkley."
Barkley hasn't panned out exactly how the New York Giants may have hoped after drafting him No. 2 overall in 2018, but before a 2020 ACL tear derailed his development, the Penn State product was well on his way to becoming a superstar.
Robinson is poised to make an impact right away, like the one Barkley had for Big Blue when he amassed over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 touchdowns as a rookie.
That type of potential should ultimately be too intriguing for some squads picking in the top third of the draft—or one willing to trade up that high—to pass up.
Fiction: Bijan Robinson will be gone before No. 14 overall.
Jalen Carter Remains a Top-10 Pick
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Since the beginning of March, Jalen Carter has been one of the more difficult prospects to pin down a draft location for.
After leaving the combine to turn himself into authorities, the Georgia defensive lineman pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing that were filed against him in January after a vehicle driven by recruiting staff member Chandler LeCroy crashed, killing both her and teammate Devin Willock, who was a passenger.
Carter, who was driving a separate vehicle than LeCroy, was sentenced to 12 months of probation, a $1,000 fine and community service for his involvement.
While there was some initial speculation that this could tank Carter's draft stock, it seems he'll still land in the top 10. All six mock drafts we looked at have Carter coming off board at No. 9 or earlier.
Kiper, McShay and Jeremiah are the highest on Carter—whom the B/R Scouting Department graded as the second-best overall prospect in this class—linking him to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5.
This appears to be the spot most NFL executives believe Carter will land as well. Peter King of NBC Sports said it's become "almost a cliche" among team officials to pair Carter with the Seahawks.
Kelly believes Carter's future lies with the Detroit Lions, who are selecting right behind the Seahawks at No. 6 overall.
The B/R Scouting Department and Brugler foresee the biggest fall for Carter. They each linked him with the Chicago Bears at No. 9 overall, the pick the team received from the Panthers when it traded down from No. 1 last month.
Despite his legal issues and a poor showing at his pro day, Carter has displayed too much talent and promise during his three years in Athens to land outside of the top 10. The draft experts should be correct here, with the most likely outcome seeing him go at No. 5 on April 27.
Fact: Jalen Carter will be selected before No. 10 overall
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