Anthony Richardson or Will Levis: Who's a Better Bet Among NFL Draft's Tier 2 QBs?

With Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud expected to be selected No. 1 and 2 overall in this year's NFL draft, the next significant step is deciphering who will be the third quarterback to come off the board.

After getting input from NFL evaluators, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler placed Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis in Tier 2 of the 2023 draft-eligible QBs.

The decision between the two could be difficult, though it shouldn't be.

"[The Indianapolis Colts] need a Day 1 starter from this rookie class, too, and Levis is currently ahead of Anthony Richardson for Indianapolis, according to sources close to the team, because he's more likely to be able to play right away," ESPN's Matt Miller reported.

Such a move would be a mistake. Richardson presents elite traits to place him among the league's best if utilized correctly and properly developed.

Before diving a little deeper into both prospects, keep the following is mind: Richardson has yet to turn 21. At the same age, Levis was still the backup for Penn State and a season away from transferring to Kentucky.

An understanding of where a prospect sits on the developmental curve is important context when weighing different options.

Let's start with Levis, because he's the more accomplished signal-caller with the reported edge to come off the board with the fourth overall pick.

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The first mistake when evaluating Levis is assuming he's a polished prospect because he turns 24 later this year and he started two seasons in the SEC. Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen has significant concerns about his game:

"Levis' pre-snap processing still needs work, particularly with respect to blitz anticipation and replacement. Levis also needs to iron out consistency as a post-snap processor. The peaks are real NFL translatable reps, but there are too many moments of taking bad shortcuts and locking into receivers as he wishes for them to come open. More worrying, Levis' ball placement isn't quite what you'd like. The peaks are impressive, but Levis too often sprays underneath throws and doesn't have the pinpoint placement to enable YAC smoothly.

"In all, Levis is a bet on getting something similar to Ryan Tannehill. Like Tannehill, Levis has the arm, toughness, functional athleticism and experience to come in and play right away. However, the accuracy woes, inconsistent processing and lack of spark outside the pocket make for a long and winding road before Levis can reach his full potential."

The Tannehill comparison is interesting because it immediately links Levis to two QB-needy teams, the Tennessee Titans (owners of the 11th pick) and Atlanta Falcons (eighth pick).

Tannehill turns 35 in July and is coming off an injury-marred season that landed him on injured reserve. Furthermore, Tannehill is about to enter the final year of his current contract. Levis might not be quite as athletic as Tennessee's current starter, but he also has a strong arm to drive the ball down the field in the Titans' play-action passing attack.

Meanwhile in Atlanta, head coach Arthur Smith devised the Titans' system before taking over the Falcons. His current franchise isn't settled at quarterback, with sophomore signal-caller Desmond Ridder expected to start. As a recent third-round selection, Ridder shouldn't be handed anything, and the Falcons need to seriously consider the potential of a true first-round talent. Levis fits the system like a glove.

"The guy's superpower is play-action, pushing the ball downfield, making every throw on the field," Kentucky offensive coordinator Liam Coen told The Athletic's Jeff Howe. "That's his superpower. That's what he's great at."

Levis' talent shouldn't be overlooked. He's a broad-shouldered 6'4", 229-pound competitor, with a lot of horsepower in his right arm. Levis is going to stare down the gun barrel of an oncoming blitzer and still deliver the ball. He isn't fazed by getting hit, and teammates love his mentality.

"He killed it because he outworked everybody," Coen said. "He was named captain after eight days of practice, and he wasn't even the starting quarterback yet. Blood, sweat, tears, he's going to compete, study film. The kid works his tail off, and he's an extremely intelligent person."

While there are legitimate concerns with Levis' game, the evaluation isn't complete without acknowledging the quarterback lost his top three wide receivers, top two blockers and offensive coordinator between the 2021 and '22 campaigns. Naturally, his game took a step back when he tried to do too much.

Meanwhile, Richardson became a full-time starter for the first time in 2022 with varying results. But too many get hung up on one simple statistic: a 53.8 completion percentage. The number is often spouted on social media like it's some mic drop despite it having no context whatsoever.

Much like Levis, Richardson suffered from a poor surrounding cast and unimaginative offensive scheme. But his flashes were brilliant.

"If you just watched him and knew nothing about [his resume], you'd take him No. 1 and not think twice," an NFL personnel evaluator told Fowler. "He makes really hard s--t look really easy."

Added an NFC exec: "I don't want to play [against] him. He's the guy out of this draft that I'd least like to play. Better quarterback playing the position than given credit for. He can read it out and has some good throws."

One line said it all. To reiterate with added emphasis, "He's the guy out of this draft that I'd least like to play."

AP Photo/Darron Cummings

The reason is simple: Richardson simultaneously presents unheard of athleticism and one of the sport's strongest arms.

The early entrant is the most athletic quarterback the NFL has ever seen based on relative athletic score, per Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte. The 6'4", 244-pound athlete ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and broke positional records with a 40.5-inch vertical and 10'9" broad jump at this year's combine.

The evaluation doesn't stop with Richardson's ideal physical prowess. Granted, he's going to affect the game from the onset of his career because of his ability to create with his legs, scramble and the designed run game.

His success running the ball will create a greater margin of error when passing, but don't discount where Richardson stands as a passer. He's not as far behind as he's often portrayed.

Klassen broke down where he excels:

"Richardson is an excellent pocket manager. He remains calm and often does well to preempt pressure. When the walls start closing in, Richardson does a great job navigating tight pockets and playing with his eyes up, showing no fear of the pass rush. Richardson is also a fine processor, especially for such a young and inexperienced player. He regularly showed the ability to cycle through his progressions and play within the system, rather than looking to break structure. Richardson just needs to speed up his timing and be a little snappier as a decision-maker—skills that theoretically develop with more reps."

While Miller reported the Colts are into Levis more than Richardson, the opposite should be true. Head coach Shane Steichen previously worked with Justin Herbert during his record-setting rookie year and then Jalen Hurts at his last two stops as offensive coordinator.

Tim Tai/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP

Steichen showed how he can implement half-field throws, pocket movement and run-pass options with both. He can add the designed run game that Hurts also brought to the table and helped the Philadelphia Eagles become the league's top rushing attack.

Clearly, the Colts are the best fit. But the Las Vegas Raiders (seventh pick) are a potential surprise suitor for his services after hosting the one-year starter for a private workout. Richardson could learn from Jimmy Garoppolo before taking the reins. The Baltimore Ravens (22nd pick) could also come into play depending on what happens with Lamar Jackson.

Obviously, Richardson isn't a finished prospect. He doesn't need to be. No quarterback entering the league is. But it's held against him far more than others because he made only 13 career starts and his team struggled.

This conversation boils down to immediate versus long-term planning. Richardson clearly has the higher upside with the potential to develop into something truly special. Levis is talented, too, but he doesn't present the same upside.

Even if Richardson doesn't pan out in the long run, a team can be content by the fact that it swung for the fences in an attempt to bring the best possible talent to life at the game's most important position. That's better than trying to hit a double when the fate of a franchise hangs in the balance.

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Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.