Teams Primed to Make a Shocking Pick in 1st Round of 2023 NFL Draft
The 2023 NFL draft appears more cloudy than most, with four quarterbacks and several defensive stars all seemingly jockeying for position in the top half of Round 1.
A lot of mocks have no offensive skill position players outside of quarterback going off the board in the top 10, but guys like running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Michael Mayer, and wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba—all of whom rank in the top 15 on our latest big board—could easily throw wrenches into that.
"I don't know what's happening in front of us," a representative from a team picking in the top 12 recently told Peter King of NBC Sports. "Anything."
"The mocks this year are going to be laughable," added an agent. "So many guys repeating the same thing, trusting guys who might not know anything."
With that in mind, here are five teams that could be primed to shock us in Round 1 and the particular picks that could induce said shock.
Carolina Panthers: QB Anthony Richardson?
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DraftKings Sportsbook heavily favors either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud going first overall to the Carolina Panthers, but Anthony Richardson remains an intriguing wild card because of his tantalizing athleticism and resultant upside.
Don't forget that not long after the Panthers acquired that top selection from the Chicago Bears last month, former Panther Thomas Davis said on NFL Network that he expects a "very, very surprising pick in Carolina," as some team brass may be "enamored with the physical ability of Anthony Richardson."
Beyond the odds in place, it'd be a shock simply because Stroud and Young are much more polished with limited flaws and because Richardson has a long way to go in terms of mechanics and accuracy following one season as a starter at Florida.
Still, this is a team that can afford to give Richardson time because it's not as though they're on the brink in 2023. And Richardson's physical tools give him a chance to become an unbelievable pro.
Plus, we've seen presumed No. 1 overall picks shift in the weeks and days leading up to the draft on several occasions. This just can't be ruled out right now.
Seattle Seahawks: QB Will Levis?
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Will Levis barely makes the top 25 on our big board. The Kentucky product is less polished than Stroud and Young and probably has a lower athletic ceiling than Richardson. That said, because he's a quarterback with a big frame and a howitzer for an arm, there's a decent chance he goes off the board with one of the top-four picks on April 27.
If that doesn't happen because the Arizona Cardinals stand pat and draft a non-quarterback third overall (or because something else unexpected goes down with the Panthers at the top, the Houston Texans second overall or the Indianapolis Colts in the No. 4 spot), the Seattle Seahawks will have a big decision to make with the fifth pick.
Seattle already has 2022 Pro Bowler Geno Smith locked up for the next three years, but Smith's surprisingly strong campaign last season could have easily been an aberration. They could save money by moving on from him and instead investing draft capital in a potential star like Levis. That move would also be easier to justify knowing they have a second first-round selection 15 picks down the road.
They're still more likely to go defense in this spot after that unit ranked in the bottom 12 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders last year, but Levis would sure present a fun shake-up in the fifth slot.
Las Vegas Raiders: RB Bijan Robinson?
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The Las Vegas Raiders are already quite famous (if not infamous) for their draft-night surprises, and they've always loved their offensive skill position players. Now, in the No. 7 spot, you have to wonder if they might again break from convention and go with a potential generational talent at a position that rarely sees the first round in this day and age.
Coming off back-to-back monster seasons at Texas, running back Bijan Robinson certainly has the build, speed, elusiveness and resume to become a super-high-impact offensive weapon for years to come, and he can make an immediate difference for a team that likely fancies itself ready to compete with new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
The added shock factor here comes from the fact Josh Jacobs remains on the Las Vegas roster, but that's only via the franchise tag, and this could present itself as a money-saving opportunity for the Raiders. Plus, Jacobs has expressed some frustration with the team in recent months, so it might be best to part ways now in favor of a younger, cheaper back with a higher ceiling.
Regardless, this could be an inflection point for the draft because if the presumed top-six prospects go off the board in the top-six spots (the four quarterbacks plus Will Anderson Jr. and Jalen Carter), there are numerous routes the Raiders can take.
And as always, don't expect them to take the road most would travel.
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Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
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Luxury picks in the top 10 are rare, but the Philadelphia Eagles might have that "luxury" with the 10th overall selection that they possess as a result of a 2022 trade with the New Orleans Saints.
And that could result in a shock based on a number of potential routes for Eagles general manager Howie Roseman, especially if he uses a first-round pick on a wide receiver for the third time in four years.
But the Eagles love their first-round wideouts, and Jalen Reagor is a sunk cost already. The Eagles roster is deep throughout, and if Jaxon Smith-Njigba can live up to his skill set as a slot superhero, it's hard to see defenses slowing down an offense featuring him alongside A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in support of quarterback Jalen Hurts.
A trade-down is much more likely here than a pick that is this luxurious, but it's entirely possible the Eagles find it impossible to resist an offensive game-changer like Smith-Njigba or even Bijan Robinson.
Look for the No. 10 slot to be a shock spot.
Baltimore Ravens: QB Hendon Hooker?
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Depending on what happens with franchised-tagged quarterback Lamar Jackson between now and draft night, the Baltimore Ravens have a good shot at shocking the football world with the No. 22 overall pick or with whatever pick they end up with when they're first on the clock.
A trade up or down is a possibility if the Ravens want to position themselves for a quarterback to take over for Jackson, either immediately or eventually. And while trading up for one of the big four signal-callers is hard to imagine considering the probable cost, ripples would also come if the Ravens were to stand pat at 22 or trade down and grab a quarterback from the next tier.
Typically, Tennessee's Hendon Hooker is the next name mentioned—and for good reason. Hooker is a remarkable athlete with a strong and accurate arm that threw 80 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions at Virginia Tech and Tennessee. He could be groomed to replace Jackson, even if it means a year of growing pains for Hooker and the team following a Jackson trade (especially because he's coming off a torn ACL).
Throw in that new Ravens quarterbacks coach Tee Martin has Tennessee roots, and it's a somewhat sensible and intriguing potential jaw-dropper in the second half of Round 1.
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