6 Bold Predictions for the NHL Offseason
Even though the 2022-23 NHL season is entering its stretch run with the Stanley Cup Playoffs just around the corner, it is still never too soon to crank up the hot stove and look ahead to the offseason.
There are some moves this offseason that just seem inevitable. We should be pretty confident that Connor Bedard is going to be the first pick in the draft. Big trades will get made. General managers and coaches will get fired. More than one team will make a regrettable move in free agency that ultimately ends in a buyout or salary-retained trade in the future.
We have already look at free-agency questions and predictions for each team, so let's take a broader look at the offseason as a whole and make a few more early predictions.
Let's get to it.
The Erik Karlsson Trade Happens
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The San Jose Sharks are clearly entering what should be a very significant rebuild, having already traded away Brent Burns and Timo Meier over the past year.
Erik Karlsson is the next logical player to go.
It simply makes sense for everybody involved. Karlsson is still looking for the last checkmark he needs on an already Hall of Fame resume by winning the Stanley Cup, and he is not likely to get that in San Jose any time soon.
The Sharks need to keep adding future assets and prospects to their cupboard, and Karlsson's value has reached its peak thanks to a bounce-back year that has seen him put up historic numbers as a defenseman.
This is the time for everybody to make a move.
There were rumblings that he could have been moved prior to the trade deadline, but given his significant contract (four full years remaining at $11.5 million per season), salary-cap restrictions for contenders and the complex nature of such a trade, it was always a long shot to get done in-season. This is an offseason type of move because it gives teams more time and flexibility to figure out their salary-cap situations, and it can get more teams involved in the bidding.
Karlsson has a full no-movement clause in his contract and can dictate where he goes, but if he wants to get that Stanley Cup, he should approach the process with an open mind.
Ron Hextall Gets Fired
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The Ron Hextall situation will be the first big test for the Pittsburgh Penguins' new ownership group. So far, Fenway Sports Group has been quiet and mostly hands off when it comes to running the Penguins since buying the team in December 2021, but they have a serious problem with their general manager.
The Penguins core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Jake Guentzel are still great and, most importantly, signed to below-market contracts against the cap. That sort of situation should be a dream scenario for winning, especially with some big money potentially coming off the books this summer.
Tristan Jarry, Jason Zucker and Brian Dumoulin are all unrestricted free agents, and the team has few key restricted free agents to worry about.
But almost every move Hextall has made for the past two years has seen him fumble every bit of cap space he has had while bringing in older players who do not fit the team's needs. The trade-deadline move to acquire Mikael Granlund's contract (two more years at $5 million per season) was an especially appalling decision after he managed to clear cap space by dumping Kasperi Kapanen and Teddy Blueger.
The Penguins still have a core capable of winning with contracts that should allow it.
They can not waste another year of what's left of their time in Pittsburgh with Hextall fumbling the opportunity. He has to go.
The Blackhawks Make at Least One Significant Addition
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The Chicago Blackhawks have spent the past year-and-a-half gutting their roster down to the foundation.
In the process, they have given themselves a decent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick and Connor Bedard while also building up a massive stockpile of future draft picks.
Now that the teardown is complete, it is time to start building again.
The Blackhawks will be swimming in salary-cap space and have a ton of draft assets to deal, owning multiple first- and second-round picks in each of the next three drafts and multiple third-round picks in the next two drafts.
Yes, they will keep a lot of them. But those draft assets and that salary-cap space could also give them the flexibility to add somebody significant to their rebuild. Perhaps an RFA on a cap-strapped team they can trade for. Maybe they feast on a team that has a salary-cap crunch and needs to dump a contract.
Getting Bedard would significantly accelerate their rebuild, but they can not just sit around and wait for him to solve all of their problems even if he does arrive. They need to build around him or whichever top pick they end up with. They are going to have to spend money on somebody to reach the cap floor, and they have an opportunity to really take advantage of that situation.
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The Canucks Trade J.T. Miller
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This is a tough situation because J.T. Miller is a good player.
A very good player.
He has a ton of talent, he scores a lot and would do very well on a contending team. He is just a horrible fit for where the Canucks are right now, and they have a very limited time to get out from under his contract.
His new seven-year, $56 million contract extension kicks in on July 1, and that contains a no-trade clause that will make any future deal very complicated for the Canucks.
But why would the Canucks want to deal him if he is so good?
Well, for starters, the team is loaded with bad contracts that are a negative value to the team. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyler Myers and even Brock Boeser are all not giving them any bang for their buck. They will be entering the offseason with no significant salary-cap space to fill their many needs and weaknesses.
The Canucks are also not anywhere close to contention. A soon-to-be 31-year-old, one-dimensional forward with an $8 million salary cap hit does them no good.
There was talk Miller was on the trade market leading up to the trade deadline, with Pittsburgh speculated as a possible destination, but nothing ever came of it. The Canucks should explore that again in the offseason.
Rasmus Dahlin Gets Monster Extension from Sabres
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Even though it is not likely to result in the end of their playoff drought this season, the Buffalo Sabres are really starting to build something special. They have a wildly entertaining offensive team with some outstanding young talent.
Defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is at the top of that list and is having the type of season that will not only put him in the discussion for the Norris Trophy as the league's best overall defenseman but has also cemented him as one of the cornerstone pieces of the Sabres' rebuild.
Entering the final year of his current contract, he will also be eligible to sign a new long-term contract extension on July 1. The Sabres have been very proactive in re-signing their young core, having already sign Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens and Mattias Samuelsson to massive long-term deals before they hit restricted free agency. Dahlin should be next.
It makes sense to get him locked in now, especially before he has another huge year and brings his price tag up even more. He is becoming one of the league's best and most electrifying defensemen.
We Get at Least 1 Restricted Free Agent Offer Sheet
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Every year we ponder the offer-sheet possibility and hope that it happens to create mass chaos around the NHL.
But even on the rare occasion that it does happen, the player's current team almost always matches.
We have seen some more attempts in recent years, with the Montreal Canadiens trying to poach Sebastian Aho from Carolina, and then Carolina responding by taking Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but it is still an underutilized tool in the NHL general manager toolbox.
That should change this year for two reasons.
The first is the crop of unrestricted free agents is pretty barren. There are no superstars, no All-Stars and few top-line players set to hit the open market. The top names are players like Max Domi, Jason Zucker, Tomas Tatar, Tristan Jarry and several other second- and third-tier players.
In other words, the type of players who are just waiting to get overpaid.
There are also some teams that have some potentially delicate RFA situations, including the New York Rangers. They are limited on cap space and have three massive RFAs set to hit the market, including defenseman K'Andre Miller and forwards Alexis Lafrenière and Filip Chytil. Teams with cap space that still have draft capital and need a young player that to add to their your core won't get many better chances to strike with an offer sheet.
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