NFL Division-by-Division Rankings After 1st Week of 2023 Free Agency

Whenever a marquee free agent picks a destination, NFL fans immediately start thinking about the impact.

How does that player fit? If he left one franchise for another, how does the previous team respond? Should I draft him for my fantasy football team? You know, all that good stuff.

One higher-level topic we eventually land on, however, is how much a difference-maker that player might be in playoff races. That postseason chase starts in the division, and a signing—or, usually more accurately, signings (or trades)—can swing perception in a hurry.

Look, sometimes the impressions are wrong. Last year, it seemed a combination of offseason moves rapidly turned the AFC West an absurdly deep division. That, uh, didn't hold up.

It's valuable, though, to catalog how we feel in March to recall how perceptions has changed in August—and next February.

The rankings are subjective but ultimately give weight to the number of plausible playoff teams from a division.

8. AFC South

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Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr.

The good news: Led by Trevor Lawrence, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in position to succeed again in 2023. Jawaan Taylor and Arden Key left in free agency, but Jacksonville's core is built well enough to manage.

But who's going to start at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans? Or the Indianapolis Colts? Or the Houston Texans?

As we sit here today, the collective uncertainty—at the most important position on the field—is not a reason for confidence. Obviously, the question will be answered relatively soon. Houston and Indy, for instance, both own top-four picks in the 2023 draft; a rookie quarterback might be leading each offense next season.

Tennessee might actually keep Ryan Tannehill, which isn't necessarily a bad decision given the lack of alternatives. Still, that would not be very inspiring after his mediocre 2022 season.

This division desperately needs a jolt, and here's hoping that a couple of rookie quarterbacks will provide it.

7. NFC South

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Drake London

While the NFC South has plenty of room for upgrades, there is legitimate reason for a bit of optimism here.

Derek Carr signed with the New Orleans Saints, and the Atlanta Falcons landed both Jessie Bates III and David Onyemata. Plus, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept top defenders Lavonte David and Jamel Dean.

Tampa also signed Baker Mayfield, who's not a franchise-saving quarterback but is a cost-effective option to serve as a bridge to a long-term answer in the post-Tom Brady era.

And then, there's the big news.

In a trade with Chicago, the Carolina Panthers landed the first overall pick of the 2023 draft. They are—for better or worse—going for it. Although it's not fair to expect a rookie QB to spark an immediate surge, Carolina should finally have some stability at the position.

You might not be overly excited about the NFC South, and that's completely fair. But it should at least have a division champion with a winning record in 2023.

6. NFC North

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Justin Fields

As of this writing, Aaron Rodgers is still being paid by the Green Bay Packers. However, it's fair to operate under the belief he will be wearing a different shade of green with the New York Jets.

The whole division has much to prove.

Yes, the Minnesota Vikings just finished 13-4. But they won a record 11 one-score games, so there's a chance that regression will be awfully unkind. Besides, the Vikings released Adam Thielen and Eric Kendricks, lost Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson in free agency, and brought in high-upside, high-risk edge-rusher Marcus Davenport.

While the Detroit Lions are seemingly trending up, ask any of their longtime fans: They'll believe it when they see it.

Rodgers' looming exit, meanwhile, has Green Bay in a rare moment of transition at quarterback. Jordan Love had one promising game last season, but it was simply one game. He's talented, sure, but clearly unproven.

Lastly, the Chicago Bears opened the checkbook for Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards after completing a blockbuster trade for DJ Moore and a package of draft picks. Though the Bears have improved substantially on paper, that needs to hold true on the field. Justin Fields has proved he's a dangerous runner but must be a more effective passer.

Each franchise has a level of optimism. At least one or two should be decent, but exactly where is the floor?

5. NFC West

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Kyle Shanahan

"Curious" is the most succinct way to describe the NFC West.

The San Francisco 49ers are the class of the division. They rattled off a 13-4 record last year thanks to the NFL's best defense in spite of a quarterback carousel. So, naturally, San Francisco added Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in free agency.

After the Niners, the discussion centers on whether you believe the Los Angeles Rams are headed for a bounce-back season and if the Seattle Seahawks can regain their early 2022 form.

My personal opinion? Neither one, really.

Los Angeles is beginning to tear down its roster. So far, the Rams have dealt Jalen Ramsey—and soon may trade Allen Robinson II—along with releasing Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd. Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are incredible players, but they're not miracle workers.

Seattle re-signed Geno Smith to a long-term contract, and his late-career breakout arc is amazing. But the Seahawks have a much tougher slate in 2023 after finishing second in the division. Seattle should be competitive, yet that doesn't mean another playoff bid is coming.

Rounding out the group, the Arizona Cardinals are poised for a huge culture shift from an offensive-driven team to a defensive-minded group. And it'll happen as Kyler Murray recovers from a knee injury.

San Francisco feels like a safe bet—famous last words—ahead of a competent, non-contending trio.

4. AFC West

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Jimmy Garoppolo

Writes on chalkboard 50 times: I will not believe the hype. I will not believe the hype. I will not bel...

Similar to the NFC West, the AFC West is obviously strong at the top; the Kansas City Chiefs just won a Super Bowl.

Kansas City signed Jawaan Taylor and Charles Omenihu to help replace Orlando Brown Jr. and Frank Clark. And while JuJu Smith-Schuster's departure may be impactful, consider us optimistic the seven-time reigning division champs can replace his one year of contributions.

The main story is, well, everyone else.

Yes, the Los Angeles Chargers flamed out of the playoffs in miserable fashion and may soon trade Austin Ekeler. However, they've also posted a winning record in the last two years and hired Kellen Moore to coordinate a Justin Herbert-led offense. Tempering the concern level is rationale.

Along with adding offensive linemen Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey, the Denver Broncos landed edge-rusher Zach Allen. All those big-money contracts are the product of head coach Sean Payton's arrival.

Finally, the Las Vegas Raiders moved on from Carr and signed Jimmy Garoppolo. They're probably not a playoff threat because of a shaky defense, but the Raiders shouldn't be a pushover.

The collective talent is apparent. It was in 2022, too. This time around, will the AFC West actually be that beautifully merciless division?

3. NFC East

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Jalen Hurts

After demanding the "best division" label in 2022, the NFC East's fall is more a matter of two projected ascents.

Once again, it won't be particularly fun to navigate this quartet.

Philadelphia has lost a few major contributors, including Hargrave, Edwards, Marcus Epps, Miles Sanders and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. There is no denying the roster will have a different look next season.

Still, the Eagles are set to return a majority of their electric offense—including veteran center Jason Kelce—re-signed cornerback James Bradberry and have extended Darius Slay.

Elsewhere in the division, the Dallas Cowboys wisely—even if uncomfortably—released Ezekiel Elliott and traded for Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley are staying with the New York Giants, who added Parris Campbell and Darren Waller. Daron Payne signed an extension with the Washington Commanders.

The NFC East likely won't have three playoff teams in 2023.

Based on the current rosters, though, the division should have a high-end contender with three respectable chasers.

2. AFC East

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Jalen Ramsey

You want splashy moves? Friend, the AFC East has your back.

Jalen Ramsey headlines the Miami Dolphins' moves, and Mike White is a solid backup plan in case Tua Tagovailoa has health concerns again. Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki are much-needed upgrades to the New England Patriots' pass-catching group.

And the Jets—unofficially, but fully expectedly—will bring in Aaron Rodgers to run the offense.

Among the trio, only the Patriots have experienced a major loss in free agency, yet they replaced Jakobi Meyers with Smith-Schuster. These rosters should be relatively cohesive.

Oh, and the Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills remain the division favorite and hope to have upgraded the offensive line with Connor McGovern. The departure of Tremaine Edwards stings, but the Bills will return veteran safety Jordan Poyer to an excellent defense.

All four AFC East clubs notched seven-plus victories last season; it's not difficult to envision each one posting a plus-.500 record in 2023.

1. AFC North

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Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow

Is there a better list of quarterbacks in a division than Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett? If that's not the strongest group, it's definitely close.

But consider these defenses, too.

Last season, each of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers held top-10 rankings in points allowed per game. The weakest link, the Cleveland Browns, went out and signed Dalvin Tomlinson, Ogbo Okoronkwo and Juan Thornhill in free agency. Pittsburgh even fortified its unit, landing Patrick Peterson and Cole Holcomb.

Cincinnati has to retool the secondary after the exits of Bates and Vonn Bell, but the Bengals drafted Dax Hill last year and signed Nick Scott. That process, on paper, is manageable.

Baltimore needs to formally settle Jackson's contract situation, which is easy for me to type on a keyboard; I don't sign the checks. The full expectation, though, is he'll return to Baltimore with a reinvigorated outlook thanks to the arrival of new coordinator Todd Monken.

Throw in the schedule rotation that pits the AFC North against the AFC South, and the division has a serious shot at sending three teams to the 2023 postseason.