NFL Free Agency 2023: 1 Player Each Team Shouldn't Re-Sign
The main focus of the NFL offseason is which players a team may acquire. Everything from free agency and trades to the draft can bring new contributors to the roster.
For every addition, however, there must be a subtraction.
At every franchise around the league, it's time for a notable breakup. This might be because, for example, Brock Purdy is a competent, far less expensive quarterback than Jimmy Garoppolo. It might also be the product of a big-money player not living up to expectations.
While each choice is subjective, the decisions are based on a player's expected role and contract in comparison to the needs and financial outlook of the current team.
AFC East
1 of 8
Buffalo Bills: Rodger Saffold, OG
Last season, Buffalo paid $6.3 million for Rodger Saffold but didn't get a positive return on investment. The veteran is no longer worth that kind of money, especially for a franchise thin on cap space. If the Bills re-sign Saffold as a depth piece, that can be reasonable. Bringing him back to start, however, would be incredibly risky.
Miami Dolphins: Mike Gesicki, TE
More than anything, this is a conversation about Mike Gesicki's usage. Although he's a good player, Gesicki only collected 52 targets while playing on the $10.9 million franchise tag. Unless the Dolphins plan to feature him in 2023, that's not enough involvement to justify the price.
New England Patriots: Nelson Agholor, WR
Nelson Agholor has a comparable issue, though his lack of production cannot be attributed to sharing the field with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. New England not having a real offensive coordinator didn't help, yet Agholor logged only 49 percent of available snaps on an $11 million salary. The Patriots need receivers but should move on from Agholor.
New York Jets: George Fant, OT
Now that veteran Duane Brown officially plans to return, the Jets no longer have a need for George Fant. New York can plan for Brown and Mekhi Becton to start at tackle and redirect Fant's $9.1 million to bolster the offense with—oh, I don't know—Aaron Rodgers, perhaps.
AFC North
2 of 8
Baltimore Ravens: Ja'Wuan James, OT
The reality is Baltimore only has a couple of marquee free agents who even fit the category. And, uh, spoiler alert: Lamar Jackson is not someone Baltimore should be eager to let walk. Ja'Wuan James was worth a gamble in 2021 but totaled 24 snaps in two injury-plagued seasons, so the Ravens can steer his $2.3 million to a new blocker.
Cincinnati Bengals: Hayden Hurst, TE
As the franchise tries to maximize its competitiveness during Joe Burrow's rookie deal, there is a delicate balance of stacking the roster and avoiding a luxury player. Hayden Hurst, who Spotrac values at $6.8 million annually as a free agent, fits the label. Throw in the perception that the 2023 draft features a deep class at his position, and Cincinnati has legitimate reason to not retain Hurst.
Cleveland Browns: Deion Jones, LB
Similar to Baltimore, the Browns understandably took a risk on Deion Jones. He'd been a productive player with the Atlanta Falcons—who absorbed most of his contract anyway—and potentially filled a need. The trade ultimately didn't work out. Jones will be looking for an opportunity to play regular snaps, but Cleveland shouldn't be that spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush Jr., LB
As a rookie, Devin Bush Jr. lived up to his billing as a first-round selection. However, an ACL injury in 2020 derailed his time in Pittsburgh and resulted in the Steelers not exercising his fifth-year option. If they can swing a one-year agreement, sure, bring him back. Otherwise, it's probably even best for Bush to pursue a fresh start.
AFC South
3 of 8
Houston Texans: Rex Burkhead, RB
There is a place for veteran leadership on a rebuilding roster. Houston, though, needs to start making the shift toward a more talented group. Rex Burkhead offered a bit of pass-catching impact last season, but the Texans can find similar value at a cheaper rate than $2.4 million as second-year back Dameon Pierce begins to command the room.
Indianapolis Colts: Matt Pryor, OL
On paper, versatility is a real asset. Matt Pryor spent time at left tackle, right guard and right tackle for Indianapolis last season. However, he didn't play to the level of his $5.5 million deal and lost a starting job twice. The relationship has presumably run its course.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Marvin Jones Jr., WR
Even before the NFL reinstated Calvin Ridley, the Jags could've moved on from Marvin Jones Jr. and his $6.3 million salary. Now that Ridley is cleared to return, Jacksonville doesn't need an expensive fourth wide receiver next to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Ridley. Besides, from Jones' perspective, he can likely attract more money in free agency than the Jaguars would be willing to pay.
Tennessee Titans: Austin Hooper, TE
Similar to Cincinnati's Hurst, Austin Hooper is projected via Spotrac to land nearly $7 million annually on the open market. Tennessee needs to find a complement for late-season breakout rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo, but that's a hefty contract for a secondary tight end.
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AFC West
4 of 8
Denver Broncos: Dalton Risner, OG
The idea of losing a four-year starter can be tough to stomach, but Dalton Risner is headed for a raise as a soon-to-be 28-year-old. Not only should the Broncos not rush to offer the money, well, they have not. While it's unlikely Denver finds an immediate upgrade over Risner, the investment required to keep him hasn't matched his performance.
Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman, WR
Basically, the conversation is whether the Chiefs want to keep JuJu Smith-Schuster or Mecole Hardman. They can logically afford one, not both. Considering who else the Chiefs have under contract for 2023, Hardman has a more replaceable skill set than Smith-Schuster.
Las Vegas Raiders: Clelin Ferrell, Edge
Although it's unfair to label him a draft bust, Clelin Ferrell undoubtedly fell short of his expectations as the No. 4 overall pick in 2019. He's still worth a gamble somewhere, but the Raiders could not unleash the best of Ferrell over an unspectacular four-year run.
Los Angeles Chargers: DeAndre Carter, WR
The good news is Carter filled in admirably after injuries to wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The bad news is Carter may have outpriced a return to the cash-strapped Chargers, who publicly committed to keep Allen and Williams. If that pledge holds true, Los Angeles has limited flexibility that is better used on upgrading the defense.
NFC East
5 of 8
Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Schultz, TE
Game-breaking tight ends are worth a massive contract. Dalton Schultz, a quality player who's topped out at 78 reception for 808 yards, simply hasn't reached that level. Some franchise will likely pay Schultz in the $12-15 million range annually to see if he can unearth that ceiling, but the Cowboys should let him walk at that price.
New York Giants: Sterling Shepard, WR
When healthy, Sterling Shepard made a nice impact on the Giants' receiving corps. The struggle is that the qualifier exists, though. Shepard, who earned $10.3 million last season, has appeared in just 10 games over the last two years. Maybe—maybe—the Giants consider re-signing him on an ultra-team-friendly contract, but Shepard just turned 30 after major injuries in consecutive years.
Philadelphia Eagles: Miles Sanders, RB
You might disagree with the "don't pay running backs" idea. It is admittedly a cold approach, especially since Miles Sanders absolutely would be a good player in an exciting Philadelphia offense. But the difference between Sanders and a replacement-level back—Kenneth Gainwell or a rookie, for example—is far less than potentially losing key defenders because the Eagles instead kept Sanders.
Washington Commanders: Taylor Heinicke, QB
If the Commanders hadn't brought in a new coordinator, they could justify Taylor Heinicke as a backup who knows the system. Now that Eric Bieniemy is running the show, Washington needs to move on. In short: Don't retain the break-in-case-of-emergency QB who played adequately, at best, in 2021 and 2022. Heinicke can be a reserve elsewhere.
NFC North
6 of 8
Chicago Bears: David Montgomery, RB
I like David Montgomery. Also, don't pay running backs. Chicago can turn to Khalil Herbert, who enjoyed a mini-breakout season with 731 rushing yards in 13 games last season. Montgomery is a more complete player, but he doesn't significantly alter the Bears' trajectory in either direction yet may command $7.2 million annually, per Spotrac.
Detroit Lions: DJ Chark, WR
The rationale here is simple: Jameson Williams has recovered from an ACL injury and is primed to handle a featured role in 2023. Detroit's issues on defense far outweigh the need for DJ Chark as a complementary receiver to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Williams.
Green Bay Packers: Dean Lowry, DL
Counting stats generally aren't a great measure for interior linemen. Pointing out that Dean Lowry notched 43 tackles with a half-sack does not accurately show if he performed well in his role. However, it's hard to ignore that Green Bay's late-season defensive surge happened with Lowry hurt or playing low snaps. He's not worth re-signing at $6.8 million, especially with Devonte Wyatt on the roster.
Minnesota Vikings: Irv Smith Jr., TE
Irv Smith Jr. has likely played his final game in Minnesota. Spotrac projects his market value at $10.2 million annually, which is both eyebrow-raising and not worth the Vikings' time after trading for T.J. Hockenson. There is no way Minnesota pays $20-plus million for tight ends.
NFC South
7 of 8
Atlanta Falcons: Damiere Byrd, WR
The truth is Atlanta really does not have a splashy name. We're balancing the thought of "eh, the Falcons will probably re-sign every valuable player" against "well, they're pretty thin on valuable players to lose." Damiere Byrd notched the third-most snaps in Atlanta's receiving corps but managed only 13 catches.
Carolina Panthers: Sam Darnold, QB
Before the Panthers made a blockbuster deal for the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, Sam Darnold was already my choice. Geno Smith will be mentioned as a cautionary tale of not giving up on a quarterback too quickly, but Darnold has 55 career starts. Really, the Panthers didn't need to wait any longer. The trade with Chicago cemented that Darnold's future won't be in Carolina, though.
New Orleans Saints: Marcus Davenport, Edge
Ah, the dreaded "upside" label. At his best, Marcus Davenport is an efficient, productive edge-rusher. During the 2021 season, he collected nine sacks in just 11 games. But he's also dealt with injuries in every year of his career. And when Davenport made a personal-best 15 appearances in 2022, he tallied a half-sack. Upside will get him paid; New Orleans shouldn't be on the hook for it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jamel Dean, CB
Not landing a single asset in return for a player as talented as Jamel Dean is a sour thought. Let's be clear about that. As the post-Tom Brady era begins, however, the Bucs' top priority should be maneuvering out of salary-cap hell. Rostering a second, highly expensive corner (along with Carlton Davis) would be a great way to remain in a financial inferno.
NFC West
8 of 8
Arizona Cardinals: Justin Pugh, OG
Provided his rehab from an ACL injury goes well, Justin Pugh can be a capable depth piece. The issue is the Cardinals are entering a lame-duck season as Kyler Murray recovers from his own ACL tear. Arizona can prioritize young players rather than a veteran with minor future value.
Los Angeles Rams: A'Shawn Robinson, DT
A'Shawn Robinson is a quality player who deserves a nice contract. Los Angeles, though, has a need for versatility up front, and Greg Gaines is a more ideal fit because he can slide outside as needed. Since the Rams likely don't have the space to keep both, Gaines should be Plan A.
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
At this point, San Francisco moving forward with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy is the obvious reality. Nevertheless, the Niners unquestionably flirted with the idea of re-signing Jimmy Garoppolo when he performed well in relief this season. Lance may still be the future, but Purdy at least showed he can capably run Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Seattle Seahawks: Rashaad Penny, RB
Rashaad Penny is another unsurprising pick, which is a direct contrast to the feeling of his initial selection in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. His efficiency numbers stood out over the last two seasons, but Penny has mustered 18 appearances since 2020. Seattle can formally turn over the backfield to Kenneth Walker III.
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