MLB Players Primed for a Home Run Surge in 2023
While there is no shortage of established power hitters around MLB, there is always a new crop of sluggers poised to join the ranks of baseball's home run elite.
Guys such as Christian Walker (36 HR), Rowdy Tellez (35 HR), Anthony Santander (33 HR), Corey Seager (33 HR) and Willy Adames (31 HR) all reached the 30-homer mark for the first time in their careers in 2022, while Julio Rodríguez (28 HR), Brandon Drury (28 HR), Nathaniel Lowe (27 HR), Cal Raleigh (27 HR) and Daulton Varsho (27 HR) also took a significant step forward in their power production.
So, who's next?
We've highlighted 10 players who have never reached 20 home runs in a single season but could be poised to take a prominent position on the homer leaderboard in 2023.
Players were selected based on minor league track records, big league production and projected playing time, and they were ranked by my own home run total predictions.
Let's start with some honorable mentions.
Rookie HR Leader Predictions
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We are not including rookies on our list, but here's our best guess at who leads the 2023 rookie class in home runs. A clear path to early playing time is a major factor here:
1. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
2. Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
3. Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
4. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets
6. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
7. Oscar Colas, Chicago White Sox
8. Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs
9. Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
10. Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers
Others to Watch: Brett Baty (NYM), Alec Burleson (STL), Michael Busch (LAD), Justin Dirden (HOU), Curtis Mead (TB), Garrett Mitchell (MIL), Bo Naylor (CLE), Logan O'Hoppe (LAA), James Outman (LAD), Oswald Peraza (NYY), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), Anthony Volpe (NYY), Matt Wallner (MIN), Drew Waters (KC)
Honorable Mentions
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Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
With 20-plus home runs each of the past two seasons, Bichette was not eligible for inclusion on this list, but he could enjoy as big of a home run spike as anyone if his strong finish to the 2022 season carries over. The 24-year-old hit .406/.444/.662 with 11 doubles and seven home runs in 142 plate appearances over the final month of the season.
Harold Ramírez, Tampa Bay Rays
Ramírez has the raw power to be a serious home run threat, posting a max exit velocity above 110 mph in 2021 and 2022, but he needs to work on his launch angle. A minor tweak to his swing could make him a serious middle-of-the-order threat for the Rays after he posted a 119 OPS+ with 24 doubles and six home runs in 435 plate appearances last year.
Trayce Thompson, Los Angeles Dodgers
There is not a bigger boom-or-bust player heading into the 2023 season. Thompson posted a terrific 46.9 percent hard-hit rate with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances last season. However, he did it with a cringe-worthy 36.5 percent strikeout rate and an unsustainable .374 BABIP. Will his strong batted-ball skills allow him to outperform those major regression red flags?
Alec Burleson/Nolan Gorman/Jordan Walker/Juan Yepez, St. Louis Cardinals
It feels like someone from this group will have a breakout season in 2023; it's just a question of who. Burleson and Walker are still rookies, so they were not eligible for our list anyway, while Gorman (313 PA, 14 HR) and Yepez (274 PA, 12 HR) both showed flashes last season. The DH job and playing time at the corner outfield spots will be their path to playing time, and whoever is swinging a hot bat will seize the role.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
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Career-High HR: 13
The Philadelphia Phillies selected Alec Bohm with the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft after he hit .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and 55 RBI in 57 games during his junior season at Wichita State.
With a strong 6'5", 218-pound frame and a solid minor league track record that included a 21-homer season in 2019 across three minor league levels, he was expected to be a prototypical power-hitting third baseman once he arrived in Philadelphia.
Instead, he has shown more of a contact-oriented game, hitting .277/.324/.391 with 24 home runs in 311 games. That said, he hit nine of his 13 home runs last season over the final three months, and added another blast in Game 3 of the World Series.
The physical tools are there for him to eventually develop into a 30-homer threat, and things were trending in the right direction down the stretch last year.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 25
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
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Career-High HR: 18
The Miami Marlins have a budding superstar and emerging face of the franchise in Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The 25-year-old was on his way to a potential 30/30 season last year with 14 home runs and 12 steals when he suffered a season-ending back injury on June 28. He was still elected to the NL All-Star team and later chosen as the 2023 MLB The Show cover athlete, so suffice to say expectations are high.
Putting his 14 home runs into full-season context, he hit them over his team's first 73 games, so extrapolated over a fully healthy 162-game season he would have finished with 31 home runs had he continued at that early season pace.
With his electric bat speed, a 30-homer season is well within reach if he can avoid any lingering effects of that back injury.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 32
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Career-High HR: 17
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie shortstop Oneil Cruz produced the hardest-hit ball of the 2022 season with this 122.4 mph line drive off the right field wall at PNC Park:
In fact, that was the single hardest-hit baseball of the entire Statcast era, which began during the 2015 season.
With a 6'7", 220-pound frame, top-of-the-scale speed and a rocket arm to go along with his light-tower power, Cruz resembles something close to a video game create-a-player, though he does still have work to do in refining his approach at the plate after striking out 126 times in 87 games last year.
The rebuilding Pirates will give him every opportunity to develop into a star, which should mean plenty of plate appearances to rack up an impressive home run total in 2023.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 34
Oscar Gonzalez, Cleveland Guardians
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Career-High HR: 11
Outfielder Oscar Gonzalez never ranked higher than the No. 20 prospect in the Cleveland organization before he burst onto the scene in 2022 with a 125 OPS+ and 2.1 WAR in 91 games as a rookie.
He memorably delivered the walk-off blast in the bottom of the 15th inning against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, sending Cleveland on to the ALDS.
The 25-year-old had a 31-homer season in the upper levels of the minors in 2021, and he ranked among the MLB leaders in max exit velocity (91st percentile) in 2022, so there is plenty of reason to believe he can build on last year's modest home run total.
With Josh Bell added in free agency, Gonzalez will likely slot into the No. 6 or No. 7 spot in the batting order, which should make him less of a focal point for opposing pitchers.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 27
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
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Career-High HR: 19
Michael Harris II needed just 114 games to post a 19-homer, 20-steal, 5.3-WAR season and take home 2022 NL Rookie of the Year honors after making the jump straight from Double-A to the majors.
What will he do over a full season's worth of games?
The 21-year-old logged strong batted-ball numbers across the board, including a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate (76th percentile) and a 10.1 percent barrel rate (69th percentile), which makes it easier to imagine bigger and better things in his sophomore campaign.
He will likely be asked to fill a more prominent place in the batting order this year after spending much of his rookie season hitting in the No. 9 hole.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 28
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
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Career-High HR: 10
Vinnie Pasquantino put himself on the top-prospect radar when he hit .300/.394/.563 with 37 doubles, 24 home runs and 84 RBI in 116 games between High-A and Double-A during the 2021 season.
The 25-year-old spent the first half of last season crushing Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .931 OPS and 18 home runs in 73 games, and he continued to impress after making his MLB debut on June 28.
He hit .295/.383/.450 with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 26 RBI in 298 plate appearances after he was promoted, showing a refined approach with more walks (35) than strikeouts (34) in 72 games.
With a strong 6'4", 245-pound frame, he looks the part of a middle-of-the-order slugger, and he could eventually develop into a perennial 30-homer threat once he settles into the big leagues.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 29
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
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Career-High HR: 13
Adley Rutschman will likely always be more of a doubles hitter than a truly elite power threat, but he's also capable of a significant spike from the 13 home runs he hit during a brilliant rookie season for the Baltimore Orioles.
The No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft hit .411/.575/.751 with 17 home runs in 57 games during his final season at Oregon State, and he had a 23-homer, 75-RBI campaign in 2021 while splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A.
He ripped 35 doubles in 113 games last year, and even with the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Camden Yards it's reasonable to expect a few more of those to find their way over the fence in his second season.
Rutschman doesn't need to be a major power threat to be one of the best all-around catchers in the game, but there's still another step forward in his power production from what he showed as a rookie.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 26
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
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Career-High HR: 14
Seiya Suzuki hit .317/.433/.636 with a career-high 38 home runs in 134 games during his final season with the Hiroshima Carp in the Japanese League before signing a five-year, $85 million deal with the Chicago Cubs last offseason.
The 28-year-old got off to a red-hot start at the plate in his MLB debut, hitting .429/.564/.929 with four home runs and 11 RBI in his first 10 games, but his performance quickly leveled off from there.
He finished with a .262/.336/.433 line and a 116 OPS+ while tallying 22 doubles and 14 home runs in 111 games, with more than a month spent on the injured list during the first half of the season with a finger sprain.
With the whirlwind of his MLB debut in the rearview and a full offseason to rest his finger issue, a step forward in production across the board seems possible as he heads into his second season on the North Side.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 24
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
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Career-High HR: 8
Things did not go well for Spencer Torkelson in his MLB debut.
The No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft sent already high expectations soaring when he logged a .935 OPS with 30 home runs in 121 games across three minor league levels in 2021 and then won a spot on the Opening Day roster last spring.
However, he hit just .197/.282/.295 with five home runs and a 25.5 percent strikeout rate during the first half, and he was demoted to Triple-A at the All-Star break.
The 23-year-old returned to the majors when rosters expanded in September, and he had five multi-hit games over the final month while homering in both ends of a double-header on Oct. 4 to finish on a high note.
His solid batted-ball metrics speak to his raw talent, and given his strong collegiate and minor league track record, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a cornerstone player in Detroit.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 22
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
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Career-High HR: 17
Andrew Vaughn spent the first two seasons of his big league career miscast as an outfielder and trying his best to learn a new defensive position on the fly.
Now that José Abreu has departed in free agency, he can return to his natural position at first base and turn his full focus to building off a strong offensive season in 2022.
The 24-year-old posted a 111 OPS+ with 28 doubles, 17 home runs and 76 RBI in 134 games, and there is more power potential in the tank for a guy who hit .374/.495/.688 with 50 home runs and 163 RBI in 160 games in college before going No. 3 in the 2019 draft.
Don't sleep on the young middle-of-the-order trio of Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez and Vaughn as potentially one of the best in baseball if all three guys can stay healthy and perform up to expectations.
2023 Home Run Prediction: 28
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
