B/R NHL Roundtable: Teams in Playoff Positions That Aren't Going to the Postseason
American Thanksgiving is considered an important date for NHL teams.
Teams in playoff position on Thanksgiving night have reached the postseason 77.5 percent time, according to Sportsnet. If you're in a playoff spot on Turkey Day, you're probably playing hockey in the Spring.
With that in mind, we thought it'd be important to call together an NHL Roundtable to discuss which teams in a playoff position won't be heading to the playoffs. Which teams off to strong starts will falter down the stretch?
Disagree with our staff or have a team in mind that won't make it? Share your thoughts in the comments section of the B/R app.
Edmonton Oilers
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The Edmonton Oilers began this month having won seven of their first 10 games, sitting second in the Pacific Division and the Western Conference standings with 14 points. They've since lost six of their last nine contests entering their Nov. 23 game with the New York Islanders.
Their inconsistent play sent them tumbling down the standings to fifth place in the Pacific by Nov. 22, sitting just behind the Calgary Flames for the final wild-card berth in the conference. It will kill their playoff chances unless they can find a way out of this dilemma.
Several factors have contributed to the Oilers' erratic play throughout November. Left unaddressed, they will derail their postseason dreams.
Free-agent acquisition Jack Campbell was brought in to stabilize their goaltending. He's won six of 10 starts but has a lousy .873 save percentage, culminating in a 7-2 shellacking on Nov. 10 at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes.
They've since gone with backup Stuart Skinner, who's won four out of nine starts but with a .921 save percentage. While Skinner's played better than Campbell, his teammates still haven't been able to string many wins together when he's between the pipes.
A lack of scoring punch beyond Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman is a longstanding issue. Losing winger Evander Kane to a wrist injury until February certainly hasn't helped. Wingers Warren Foegele, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and rookie Dylan Holloway have just four goals between them.
On the blue line, the Oilers could use a steady left-hand shot among their top-four defensemen to take some of the burdens off Darnell Nurse. Meanwhile, Evan Bouchard has just six points in 19 games after netting 43 points in his rookie campaign last season.
Add them all up and it doesn't look good for the Oilers' playoff chances.
- Lyle Richardson
Detroit Red Wings
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When it comes to this list, the Red Wings are admittedly a challenge.
They were playing .611 hockey prior to a Wednesday night date with visiting Nashville and several of their key offseason acquisitions—particularly left wingers Dominik Kubalik and David Perron and goalie Ville Husso—are performing at or beyond GM Steve Yzerman’s most ebullient forecasts.
Kubalik and Perron, signed for two years apiece from Chicago and St. Louis, respectively, had combined for 15 goals and 36 points through 18 games; while Husso, locked up for three years after a trade from the Blues for a draft pick, had a .916 save percentage and 2.55 goals-against average in 12 starts.
So, it’s not as if things in Detroit have shown significant signs of faltering.
Rather, it’s a case of the Red Wings perhaps not being quite ready to run in elite company.
Though it’s been quite pleasant for a franchise that’s gone six years without a playoff berth for and nine without a series win, the reality remains that Detroit’s hot 9-5-4 start is still good for only the eighth of eight available slots in the Eastern Conference.
And of the eight teams running behind them before Wednesday, three were in the tournament last season—including the Presidents Trophy winners—and they were lurking within one, two and five points, respectively.
Expecting even one member of that power trio to exceed its early numbers and climb the ladder is hardly a stretch, and given the Red Wings’ pedestrian overall placement in several statistics—16th in goals, 29th in shots, 29th in faceoff percentage—it’s not difficult to envision them sliding just off the pace between now and April.
Sorry, Hockeytown. I hope we can still be friends.
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Seattle Kraken
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Someone had to pick on the new guys—and it was high time I put my "noted jerk" label to work—so here I am going out on a huge limb and saying the Seattle Kraken, in their second NHL season, will fade out of the playoff picture. That might sound like I'm being sarcastic, but I assure you, I am not.
The Kraken are battling Los Angeles for second in the Pacific Division behind scorching-hot Vegas. That alone puts them in a playoff spot, and MoneyPuck has their playoff odds at around 89 percent to make the postseason. So, let's poke holes in all the good things they've been doing this season so the teams behind them like Calgary and Edmonton can catch them in the division and Nashville, St. Louis and Minnesota can do the same in the wild card.
The Kraken have, so far, been outstanding in almost every facet of the advanced statistics. Shot attempts, expected goals, expected goals against...you name it, they're in the top 10, and those things should bode well. But some things don't make sense.
They've gotten fantastic goaltending from 32-year-old Martin Jones. The Kraken had the worst goaltending in the NHL last season due to Philipp Grubauer having the worst season of his career. Despite that, Jones was brought in to back him up this season and was coming off four consecutive average-to-below-average seasons with San Jose and Philadelphia. An early-season injury to Grubauer opened the door of opportunity for Jones and he's run with it, but they're also running him into the ground.
Jones has played in 15 of their first 18 games and started 14 of those. That would put him on a pace to play in around 70 games. The last time Jones played 60-plus games was 2018-19 with the Sharks. Over his first four years in San Jose, he averaged 63 games per season during which he had a .910 save percentage, but for the past three seasons (two with the Sharks, one with the Flyers), his split-starter and backup duty saw him post a well-below-average .898 save percentage.
That he's at .913 this season doesn't jibe with that trend as he's gotten older. He's either been very fortunate or he's having a renaissance. Call me a jerk if you want to, but it's tough to believe he's turned it around this well.
While Seattle goaltending has played over its head, the offense has been unimpressive. The Kraken have scored 58 goals, which plants them firmly in the middle of the pack in the NHL (18th), and they score 3.22 goals per game, which is a little higher in the middle of the pack (14th). They don't have a definitive goal-scoring threat and have spread out the offense more among their skaters.
Each of the teams they'll be battling with down the stretch have one or two aces they can count on when they need to get a goal late in games. In those tight games as the season rolls on, I'd like my chances with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl or Vladimir Tarasenko or Kirill Kaprizov or Filip Forsberg. Of course it's nice to have a balanced offense. But the regular season is such a grind, and having an elite scorer provides an advantage.
Don't get me wrong in any of this: I love what the Kraken have going for them and they're going to get better sooner than later, but they're not there yet.
- Joe Yerdon
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New York Islanders
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After an incredibly disappointing 2021-22 season, the New York Islanders have accumulated 24 points through 20 games; a pace of 98.4 points over the course of a full season. They sit third in the Metropolitan Division. Should they continue on at this rate, then they’ll make it back to the playoffs.
Don’t bank on it. Although general manager Lou Lamoriello will be content with the team’s record over the first quarter of the season, there are a number of issues that foreshadow problems that will drag them down the rest of the way.
The most general problem is this: Per Evolving Hockey, the Islanders rank 23rd in the NHL by expected goals percentage and 24th at five-on-five. So how are they winning? For one, Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov have been fantastic in goal. That should continue for the rest of the season. What won’t sustain, however, is the Islanders’ conversion rate. A number of their players have inflated shooting percentages. Particularly defensemen Noah Dobson and Scott Mayfield. They’re good players, but 10 goals combined through 20 games is well beyond their normal means. The Islanders rank fifth in even-strength shooting percentage.
Another bad indicator for the Islanders is that, while they have 12 wins, only nine of them have come in regulation. While it’s of course good to earn the second point in overtime or the shootout, regulation play is a much more significant bellwether of a team’s capabilities.
Finally, they’re in playoff position largely because of the teams who are lagging behind. The New York Rangers have been great this season, but their results haven’t quite caught up to their play. Igor Shesterkin is starting to find his game, and there is too much offensive firepower on the team to shoot below 9 percent for the entire season. Trading Ryan Reaves to Minnesota also takes away a player who held back the fourth line and also opens up cap space for a big deadline move. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Penguins had an ugly start to the season but are finally catching their bearings. They have won three games in a row. Look for both to surpass the Islanders within a few months. The Islanders will be on the outside looking in.
- Adam Herman
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