Yankees vs. Astros: Who Has the Edge in Historically Great ALCS Matchup?
It's not always the best team that advances in the MLB postseason. Oftentimes, it's simply about who gets hot at the right time and proves capable of riding that momentum for a few weeks in October.
Not in the 2022 ALCS.
The Houston Astros and New York Yankees were unquestionably the best teams in the American League during the regular season, and, compared to the 87-win Philadelphia Phillies and the 89-win San Diego Padres squaring off in the NLCS, this year's ALCS matchup is a veritable clash of the titans.
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After rain postponed Game 5 on Monday night, the Yankees closed out their ALDS matchup against the Cleveland Guardians with a 5-1 victory on Tuesday afternoon. Now they face a quick turnaround for Game 1 of the ALCS on Wednesday night.
How good were the top two seeds on the AL side of the bracket?
The Astros won an AL-high 106 games during the regular season and held at least a share of the AL West lead from May 11 through the end of the year, cruising to their fifth division title in six years with a 16-game lead over the upstart Seattle Mariners.
Meanwhile, the Yankees looked like the team to beat when they went 56-21 over the first three months of the season. They hit some rough patches in July and August but came out the other side with a 20-11 record from Sept. 2 through the end of the year to finish 99-63 and comfortably out in front of the AL East field.
But which AL juggernaut has the edge in the ALCS?
A lot changes over the course of a 162-game season, so season-long stats are not always the best indication of how a team is currently playing, but it can at least serve as a tale of the tape of sorts to get the conversation started.
OPS: NYY (.751), HOU (.743)
HR: NYY (254), HOU (214)
R/G: NYY (5.0), HOU (4.6)
Team ERA: HOU (2.90), NYY (3.30)
SP ERA: HOU (2.95), NYY (3.51)
RP ERA: HOU (2.80), NYY (2.97)
At first glance, this might seem like an easy Yankees offense vs. Astros pitching storyline, but both teams ranked near the top of the league in all of those categories, so it's tough to call either end of things a weakness for these two teams.
What, then, is going to decide this series?
Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino vs. A Rested Houston Rotation
With wins in Game 1 and Game 4 of the ALDS, Gerrit Cole has played the role of staff ace masterfully for the Yankees thus far, chewing through 13.1 innings in those two starts to help take pressure off the New York bullpen.
Behind him, 2022 breakout star Nestor Cortés more than held his own in Game 2 (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER) and Game 5 (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER), giving the Yankees everything they could hope for in his first taste of the postseason.
However, after Cole threw 110 pitches on Sunday and Cortés worked on three days rest on Tuesday, there's a good chance we won't see either pitcher until Game 3.
The Astros have Justin Verlander lined up to start Game 1 on normal rest after they swept the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS and can then turn to some combination of Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. for the next two games. The Yankees will be forced to turn to Jameson Taillon in Game 1 and likely Luis Severino in Game 2.
Taillon allowed three hits and two earned runs without recording an out pitching in relief in Game 2 of the ALDS, while Severino started Game 3 and allowed eight hits and three earned runs in 5.2 innings.
To be fair, Verlander and Valdez were shaky in their own ALDS outings, but it's still far easier to bank on their success after brilliant regular seasons from both of them than it is to hope the back of the Yankees staff can avoid a 2-0 hole.
Aaron Judge vs. Houston Pitching
For a guy who hit .311/.425/.686 with 62 home runs on the year, Aaron Judge sure has had a rough go of it facing the Astros pitching staff in 2022.
The towering slugger hit just .148/.258/.370 with two home runs in 31 plate appearances against Houston on the year, and his importance to the Yankees' offense can't be understated.
To that point, the Yankees went 39-12 (.765) in games where Judge homered this season, compared to 57-49 (.538) when he failed to go deep.
After going 0-for-8 with seven strikeouts in the first two games of the ALDS, Judge finally left the yard in Game 3 and Game 5.
That has provided some optimism that the team's most important hitter is getting things locked in just in time for this crucial ALCS matchup, but there's a tough task ahead in the Houston pitching staff.
A Lopsided Battle of the Bullpens
The Astros rotation receives plenty of attention, and deservedly so, but their biggest weapon might be the lights-out relief corps they've assembled behind those starters.
Houston relievers allowed just nine hits and one earned run in 20.1 innings during the ALDS, recording all three wins and nailing down the only save opportunity they saw.
The quintet of Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, Héctor Neris, Ryan Pressly and Ryne Stanek did not allow an earned run in 11 combined innings. Beyond that terrific group of traditional relievers, the team also has starters Luis Garica and Cristian Javier available out of the bullpen, as well as flame-throwing top prospect Hunter Brown who has looked more than ready for the big stage.
That's an impressive array of weapons to slam the door if the starters do their job, but things are a bit more precarious in the other dugout.
The Yankees have not had a go-to closer for much of the season.
Groundball machine Clay Holmes had a breakout season, but he was slowed by a shoulder injury down the stretch. Furthermore, manager Aaron Boone has not used him in back-to-back days since Sept. 13 and 14.
Both ALDS losses were credited to the Yankees bullpen, as well as a blown save by Clarke Schmidt in Game 3 when Holmes was unavailable.
Right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga has been reliable, and lefty Wandy Peralta appeared in all five ALDS games, but compared to Houston's staple of impact arms waiting in the bullpen, the Yankees relief corps looks like the unit that could decide the outcome of this series.
Final Prediction
There has been no love lost between these two clubs since Houston's sign-stealing scandal was revealed, which had a direct impact on the Astros eliminating the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS en route to a World Series title.
Nothing would be sweeter for the Yankees than to return the favor with an ALCS ousting of their own, but they're facing an absolutely loaded Astros team with no rest or time to shuffle the pitching staff. The battle ahead is an uphill one, to say the least.
Prediction: Astros in 6
