Mel Kiper 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down the Hair's Expert Analysis

While Mel Kiper may get some play as the best college football scout in the nation, he has been wrong a lot. Some of his past projections have gone up in flames. 

Such as the following comment about JaMarcus Russell a few seasons back:

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Obviously, he'll need a little time. But you're talking about a 2-3-year period. Once he's under center, look out, because the skill level he has is certainly John Elway-like."

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Prospecting is an art form, and a lot of the time it really is a hit-and-miss proposition. Still, Kiper seems to make a living as the foremost talking head on television in regards to the NFL draft. I do like what he has to say come draft day but him being a genius is a little overplayed, if you ask me. 

Today I am going to analyze "The Hair's" big board and give you my take on his assessments and the players at each position. 

25. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Kiper

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He's a man among boys now at the Division II level, but must be exceptional there and answer questions. Has been dynamic as a punt returner this season.

 

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My Take

I actually rank Jenkins as one of the top corners in the entire draft. His character concerns will be an overriding issue but the talent is absolutely there. I love the way he plays press coverage and handles himself down field. He has a knack for the ball and can be a true shutdown corner. 

As Kiper states, he is a dynamic punt returner. This will give any team another reason to draft Jenkins for his multitude of talents. 

My Ranking: 31

24. Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

Kiper

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Multidimensional tight end who is head and shoulders above the rest of his class. He's athletic but is also a very effective blocker. The NFL is craving these types right now.

 

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My Take

I do agree that Allen is by far the best tight end prospect in the draft. He reminds me a great deal of Jermichael Finley in Green Bay but with better hands. Is extremely solid in pass protection, reminding me of Vernon Davis in that aspect. 

My Ranking: 41

23. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Kiper

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 Kirkpatrick can play. Biggest advantage is his elite size for the position, and he doesn't give up much quickness for it.

 

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My Take

Elite size isn't everything when it comes to corner prospects. I give Kiper a lot of credit for having Kirkpatrick so low though. He has the look of a complete bust at the next level.

I don't like how stiff his hips gets on the outside and isn't as physical as his size would indicate. He projects better as a safety in the NFL. 

My Ranking: 18

22. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Kiper

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Multidimensional receiver is able to beat you short or deep using a big frame to beat smaller cornerbacks.

 

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My Take

Way too low in my opinion. Michael Floyd is the most pro ready receiver in the entire draft. He runs crisp routes, has soft hands and is extremely physical on the outside. Will be a great red zone threat. Character concerns could drop his stocks as the NFL appears to be getting away from the "diva" wide receiver. 

My Ranking: 10 

21. Jerel Worthy, DL, Michigan State

Kiper

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Has played better after an inconsistent start but still can have up-and-down stretches. Disruptive DT in a class that's a little shallower, and that could benefit him. 

 

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My Take

Consistency has been a major issue in regards to Worthy and I don't think that has changed a great deal this season. He hasn't been an every down player on defense for Michigan State, which should be a cause for concern moving forward.

Relatively weak draft class at this position could mean that Worthy goes off the board earlier than he should. 

My Ranking: 27

20. Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

Kiper

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An absolute flier, Brown isn't big, but he can get after the quarterback and back up and cover like a safety. Has a versatile skill set and can go outside in a 3-4 or be a good weakside in a 4-3.

 

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My Take

Size does matter, just ask your girl. It looks like Brown might be too small at this point and could get lost in the scheme of things against larger blockers. This doesn't mean that he wont bulk up, which is a necessity at this point.

I will say that he poses a great threat on the outside and plays bigger than he is. Could be a project but has an incredibly high ceiling. 

My Ranking: 28

19. Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska

Kiper

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 Has strong frame and great ball skills and is a big-time competitor.

 

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My Take

My favorite corner prospect in this draft outside of Morris Claiborne. Alfonzo Dennard is the whole package and will be elite in the NFL.

He has extremely good man coverage skills and possesses the ability to play bump and run, keeping receivers off balance prior to initializing their routes. Should jump up the rankings following the NFL Combine. 

My Ranking: 8

18. Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama

Kiper

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A riser so far this year, he is showing improved pass-rush skills and should convert to 3-4 OLB at the next level.

 

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My Take

Kiper changed my mind with a little help from videos of Upshaw. I had previously said that he translates better as a 4-3 weak side backer but that doesn't appear to be the case.

He has a tremendous initial burst and a couple solid pass rush moves. Would be a great fit for the Steelers, Packers or 49ers but may not drop that far. 

My Ranking: 19

17. Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

Kiper

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Has little left to prove; he's started from day one. Great instincts, makes plays sideline to sideline and is far more disciplined than he gets credit for.

 

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My Take

Little left to prove? Really? I think that Burfict has a whole hell of a lot to prove at this point. He isn't great in coverage, has been taken off the field in nickel packages and has an incredibly large ego.

His ceiling is extremely high however, which will lead some team to take a chance on him in the first round. At worst he projects to be an average inside linebacker. At best he could be a real steal and a Patrick Willis type player. 

My Ranking: 31

16. Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

Kiper

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 Balances plugging running lanes with decent skills as a penetrator. Consistent season.

 

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My Take

“Scheme-versatile” could also mean without a natural position. Thompson isn't a prototypical 4-3 defensive tackles and cannot play the net in the 3-4 scheme at his current size.

You could see Thompson make the jump to 3-4 defensive end and move inside on passing downs: this could be his bread and butter moving forward. Still has amazing strength and gets great leverage against opposing offensive linemen. Way too highly rated in my book!

My Ranking: 45

15. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

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Kiper

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Imposing presence, a matchup nightmare. Phenomenal hands, decent burst, elite size. Speed is a bit of a question.

 

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My Take

Kiper hit it right on the nose in regards to Jeffery's lack of production in 2011. The issue with Stephen Garcia really hampered his ability to have breakout numbers. While this cannot be held against Jeffery too much, it has to be somewhat of a concern that he didn't compile a 100 yard receiving game this season.

Has as high of a ceiling as any receiver in the draft, but also has that “bust” factor: a risky first round pick in my opinion.  

My Ranking: 16

14. David DeCastro, G, Stanford

Kiper

Extremely consistent, and both athletic and powerful in the run game. The rare guard who could get some looks in the first round.

My Take

By far the best guard prospect in the draft, DeCastro is just as good in pass protection as he is in run blocking. He has exceptional athletic ability for such a large man and owns opposing defenders at the line. Some may conclude that my ranking is too high because of his position.

That said, Mike Iupati would be a top ten pick if the 2010 draft was held again today. 

My Ranking: 9

13. Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia

Kiper

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Has spent time at tackle but can dominate at guard, and I'd expect whoever drafts him to ultimately have him blocking inside.

 

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My Take

I don't understand why some draft "experts" such as Kiper has Glenn ahead of DeCastro. He says that Glenn translates better at guard and then prefaces DeCastro's report by saying guards aren't taken too much in the first round. Well, which is it? 

Glenn will be a late first round pick because teams need that true mauler along the interior of the line but his projection of being a top 15 player is just absurd. 

My Ranking: 26

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12. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Kiper

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Accuracy is still very good. Good size, strong arm but needs to improve footwork. Still a very good prospect.

 

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My Take

Footwork is a major issue in my opinion. Jones seems to get happy feet when facing pressure up the middle and tends to throw into tight windows rather than finding second or third reads. As I stated in my All Over-Rate Team, Landry Jones is a major risk in the first round.  

My Ranking: 17

11. Devon Still, DL, Penn State

Kiper

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Jumps this week. A great penetrator, he has overcome health issues and has been extremely disruptive.

 

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My Take

Kiper is 100 percent correct in his scouting report of Devon Still. I absolutely love the way he gets penetration at the line and bulls past opposing linemen.

His disruptive ability on defense consistently causes quarterbacks to change their projectory in the pocket. He is just as good in run defense as well. Still would be a perfect fit on the end for a team running a 3-4.  

My Ranking: 13

10. Luke Kuechly, LB< Boston College

Kiper

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Great instincts both against the run and even dropping his hips and falling into coverage. 

 

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My Take

This dude is probably the surest tackler that you will see enter the NFL Draft. He has great balance and holds his own against interior lineman up the middle. This is an aspect of a linebackers game that is overlooked far too often.

While Kuechly does drop into coverage smoothly, he can struggled actually covering tight ends between the hashes. Additionally, the Boston College star is strictly someone that plays within the hashes past the line of scrimmage: you will rarely see him in the defensive backfield. A prototypical 4-3 player. 

My Ranking: 15

9. Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Kiper

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Trusted in the passing game as the blindside protection for Luck, he also does a great job in the run game, especially for how athletic he is.

 

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My Take

Don't you expect someone that is athletic to be solid in the run game? Seriously, that doesn't make much sense to me. I personally believe that Martin translates better to the pros than does Matt Kalil.

While they both are going to be great tackles at the next level, Martin has the upper body strength to dominate larger ends and can get around to the edge to protect against speed rushers.

My Ranking: 5

8. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Kiper

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The size and talent are there, but he'll need to add to his arsenal with increased blocking attention. Great size and length to hold the edge as a 4-3 defensive end.

 

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My Take

I really don't think that we will have to worry about Coples skill set moving forward. Very few collegiate defensive ends have a wide array of pass rushing moves because they just don't need it at that level.

Coples is a hard worker and will work to enable that his game translates well to the next level. The North Carolina star is strictly a 4-3 defensive end because he attacks the edge with the best of them and isn't a great rush defender.  

My Ranking: 12

7. Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Kiper

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Durable, he has played from day one at Iowa. Ceiling a question, but he's very good now.

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My Take

Hard to argue with Kiper on this one. While Reiff projects to be a really good player at the next level, his ceiling is nowhere as high as other tackles in this draft.

I do like what I see from him in regards to pass protection and the ability to cover the edge against speed rushers.

My Ranking: 11

6. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Kiper

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Not buying any talk he'd be higher on some boards than Luck, but his altered delivery has resulted in better accuracy on downfield throws. 

 

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My Take

What talk about him being higher than Luck? Seriously, I have not seen much of that. Anyway, Griffin has excellent pocket awareness and can make every single throw on the field. He understands when to use that strong arm or lob the ball in against underneath coverage.

One of my favorite aspects of Griffin's game is the fact that he gets rid of the ball quick and doesn't hesitate under pressure. Two things that translate extremely well to the next level. Has a chance at being a perennial Pro Bowl performer.  

My Ranking: 3

5. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Kiper

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A better prospect than recent OSU star Dez Bryant. Versatile, explosive and really works to get open. Great ball skills; breaks tackles.

 

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My Take

Kiper really doesn't get into the specifics that makes Blackmon a great pro prospect. Blackmon has a solid initial burst and can take his speed to a second gear down field. He is strong at the line and beats bump and run coverage with the best of them.

I absolutely love Blackmon's soft hands and the fact that he already has pro ready route running skills.  

My Ranking: 7

4. Morris Claiborne, CB, Louisiana State

Kiper

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Exceptional pure cover corner with impeccable instincts at the position. Locates the ball and can catch it. 

 

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My Take

I had Claiborne as the top ranked corner heading into the season. Already plays in a pro style defense at LSU and is extremely solid in press coverage. As Kiper says, he does locate the ball well. I envision Claiborne having an immediate impact as a rookie and improving from there.  

My Ranking: 4

3. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

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Kiper

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Powerful, fast and with improved vision, he runs with good pad level and breaks tackles with ease.

 

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My Take

I personally think that Trent Richardson is a much better pro prospect than Mark Ingram was last season. He runs exceptionally well up the middle, is able to break off tackles against larger linebackers and has a great burst. One of the things that is underrated in Richardson's game is his soft hands and blocking ability.  

My Ranking: 2

2. Matt Kalil, OT, Southern California

Kiper

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Kalil was steady the entire season and has the full range of skills for the left tackle position, not to mention the pedigree. 

 

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My Take

he pedigree thing really annoys me. What does it matter what you brother or a relative has done at the next level? This is not an argument that teams should take much stock in when putting together their big board

Still, I do believe that Kalil will be a Pro Bowl tackle at the next level. He will need to put on some size and hone technique in order to be considered a top tier tackle in the NFL.

My Ranking: 6

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Kiper

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The total package: arm strength, size, smarts and demeanor.

 

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My Take

Andrew Luck is the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. I can envision a scenario in which the Indianapolis Colts do find a team that is willing to give up the house for the best pro quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning.  

My Ranking: 1