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Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin: Fight Odds, Live Stream, Predictions

Nate Loop@@Nate_LoopFeatured Columnist IVSeptember 17, 2022

Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Saul "Canelo" Álvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin will bring their rivalry to a close when they face off for a third time in a super middleweight championship bout on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

The pair first clashed in September 2017, fighting to a split draw. In the rematch a year later, Álvarez edged out Golovkin on two of the three scorecards to earn a majority-decision win. The trilogy fight is presumably the final opportunity for the 40-year-old Golovkin to take down his bitter rival.

Álvarez, 32, is returning to super middleweight after losing to Dimitry Bivol in May in a light heavyweight championship fight. Alvarez remains the undisputed champion at super middleweight, which means four belts are up for grabs in this one.

Golovkin has fought and won four times since his second bout against Canelo. He's won three of them by stoppage, the most recent a ninth-round TKO win over Ryota Murata at middleweight in April. Saturday marks his first professional fight at super middleweight.


Álvarez vs. Golovkin Fight Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 17 at 8 p.m. ET (main card), 11 p.m. ET (main event)

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Live stream: DAZN (subscription required)

Odds: Alvarez -550 (bet $550 to win $100), Golovkin +370 (bet $100 to win $370)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.


Preview, Predictions

Álvarez is a solid favorite heading into Saturday's fight. He took on a major risk by moving up to face Bivol earlier this year, but the return to 168 pounds should help him. He's still in the prime of his career and has said the recent loss has fueled his competitive fire.

“I will tell what it has done, I do feel hungrier. I feel more dangerous now. My training hasn’t changed. I still train 100 percent," Álvarez said told The Ring's Joseph Santoliquito.

There's no question Álvarez has to be at the top of his game. Golovkin may be 40 years old now, but he remains one of the most dangerous punchers in the sport. Álvarez had to withstand some hellacious blows to earn a controversial draw and narrow win in the first two meetings. He shouldn't expect anything different the third time around.

Golovkin is eager to prove that he can beat Álvarez, who many consider one of the best, if not the best, pound-for-pound fighters of his generation. Some believe Golovkin deserved to win the first fight against Alvarez, and the second bout was also fought on razor-thin margins. But the record still shows that Golovkin is 0-1-1 against Álvarez. This is his long-awaited chance to correct the narrative.

“We fought at 160, now we are fighting against each other at 168. Same ring, same rules for both of the opponents, and at the same time I feel great at 168. So there will be no excuses," Golovkin said, per the Guardian's Donald McRae.

While Golovkin has all the self-confidence in the world, it seems few are picking him to score an upset Saturday night. Bleacher Report's Lyle Fitzsimmons is going with Canelo by unanimous decision, noting Alvarez has been "more active and more impressive since their second meeting."

Bad Left Hook polled four of its writers, with three backing Alvarez and one backing Golovkin. Will Esco believes Alvarez will win by late TKO as he's "motivated enough to put on a good performance here as he looks to conclude this trilogy in clear fashion." John Hansen is backing the underdog by split decision, writing "I’ve never seen Gennadiy Golovkin lose a fight to Canelo Alvarez before. Age and oddsmakers be damned, I won’t sell the old man short this time, either."

It's true that Golovkin seems to have slowed down a bit, even if he remains a middleweight champion and has given no indication that he plans to retire. If his reflexes and snap on his punches are waning, Alvarez should be able to take advantage with his trademark counterpunches and hooks to the body.

Of course, there's plenty of pressure on Alvarez here. He's coming off a loss, has the belts to lose and is a solid favorite. He's not going to get too much credit if he beats a 40-year-old prizefighter. That's the clear expectation. If he loses, it's going to again call into question the decisions from the first two fights. Alvarez can't afford to tighten up or misread Golovkin here. It took his best stuff to get through the first two chapters of this rivalry. It's not going to be any different on Saturday.


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