Bold MLB Predictions with 40 Games to Go

Each MLB team has roughly 40 games left to play.

It looks like the Los Angeles Dodgers will run away with the National League's No. 1 seed while the Houston Astros are trying to stave off the struggling New York Yankees for the American League's top spot.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is probably the AL MVP, and Paul Goldschmidt is likely the NL MVP.

But what else can we expect from this final 40-game stretch into the postseason?

Here are some bold predictions with less than a quarter of the season left to play.

Atlanta Catches Mets to Win NL East

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ATLANTA, GA August 19: Atlanta third baseman Austin Riley (27) hits the ball deep during the MLB game between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves on August 19th, 2022 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The AL Central is the closest division, with 3.0 games separating the top-three teams But the most compelling division race is in the NL East.

That is, in part, due to the perceived weakness of the AL Central. It still doesn't take away from the strength of the New York Mets and Atlanta atop the NL East.

In the NL, only the Los Angeles Dodgers have scored more runs or have a higher run differential than either New York or Atlanta.

These three, along with the St. Louis Cardinals, are the hottest teams in baseball. They all rank top five in OPS and runs scored for August.

But the margins are thin for the NL East rivals, with the Mets holding a three-game edge.

However, the Mets lead the season series against Atlanta 9-7, and they have the easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.

Where Atlanta has the advantage, though, is being relatively healthy. New York has faced a recent injury wave, with infielder Eduardo Escobar, reliever Tommy Hunter and starter Carlos Carrasco all landing on the IL. Furthermore, Taijuan Walker missed his last start with back spasms, though he is expected to return to the rotation soon.

It's already a tenuous situation relying on Max Scherzer, a 38-year-old whose arm basically died at the end of last year with the Dodgers, and Jacob deGrom, who recently returned from a stress reaction in his shoulder.

Albert Pujols Will Hit 700th Home Run

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 21: Albert Pujols #5 of the St Louis Cardinals gets ready in the batters box against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 21, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Whatever got into Albert Pujols the last couple of weeks is putting him squarely in position to chase history.

As a declining 42-year-old in his final season, it did not seem likely that Pujols would catch Alex Rodriguez on the all-time home run list or flirt with joining the elite 700 club with Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.

Pujols hit only seven home runs in the first 62 games of the season, yet he's matched that total since Aug. 10.

Entering Monday, Pujols has a 1.439 OPS, slashing .449/.500/.939 with six homers in 18 games since the All-Star break. That line is bound to go up after Pujols launched a solo shot, good for his 693rd career home run, to beat the Chicago Cubs on Monday.

He needs seven home runs over these last 41 games to join the 700 list and just four to pass Rodriguez.

Don't bet against the legend. He's leaving it all out there in his 22nd MLB season, even trying (unsuccessfully, of course) to steal bases.

Josh Hader Follows in Craig Kimbrel's Footsteps

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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 19: Manager Bob Melvin #3 takes Josh Hader #71 of the San Diego Padres out of the game during the ninth inning of a game against the Washington Nationals at PETCO Park on August 19, 2022 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

With manager Bob Melvin's announcement over the weekend that the San Diego Padres are giving Josh Hader "a break" from the closer role, it's hard not to draw some parallels to the Chicago White Sox trading for Craig Kimbrel at last year's deadline.

This is not an apples-to-apples comparison. The Padres acquired Hader at the deadline to be their closer, while the White Sox at the deadline last year traded for Kimbrel without a defined role since they already had Liam Hendriks locking up the ninth.

It is another case of a once-dominant closer moving to a new team at the deadline, only to seemingly lose his powers.

In the 3.1 innings he has pitched for the Padres, Hader's ERA is 16.20 with a 3.00 WHIP and .385 batting average. He's hit two batters, walked five and struck out four.

The Padres have the starting pitching and added enough offense at the deadline to survive Hader not panning out.

White Sox Take Rightful Place atop AL Central

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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - AUGUST 22: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox celebrates scoring on a single off the bat of Elvis Andrus in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on August 22, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

As impressive as the young Cleveland Guardians have been, and as well-run as the Minnesota Twins are as an organization, it's still surprising to see the Chicago White Sox in third behind both of them.

It's currently the most competitive race for a division title, and there is a good chance that the two teams that fail to win the crown are left out of the playoff picture entirely.

That would be a massive disappointment for the White Sox, considering their preseason expectations. They also have the easiest remaining schedule of any teams in that division.

If they are going to pull off the late-season comeback, the White Sox can't be losing to the lowly Kansas City Royals as they did Monday. At least Chicago has been posting a top-10 OPS in August.

They are also healthier than they were in the middle of the season when injuries ravaged the team, though Michael Kopech was pulled in the first inning of Monday's start with left knee soreness.

Forty games are just enough for the White Sox to get right and take their rightful place as the AL Central leaders.

Dustin May Becomes Dodgers' No. 2 Starter

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 20: Dustin May #85 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at Dodger Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Call it an early overreaction to Dustin May's debut Saturday night after returning from Tommy John surgery, but it's hard to deny how electric his stuff looked.

May struck out nine in five scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins in his first game in 16 months. He was shaky at times in the first inning but settled down and made pitches. His sinker touched 98.8 mph, while the four-seamer maxed out at 99.2 mph.

Once the Dodgers get May past his five-inning or 75-pitch limit, he'll be arguably their best pitcher.

Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin and Andrew Heaney have all been much better than expected. Gonsolin held the lowest ERA (2.12), opposing batting average (.169) and WHIP (0.86) in the National League going into Monday. Julio Urías and Anderson were third and sixth, respectively, in ERA.

Right now, May just seems like a welcome piece to the Dodgers' already intriguing puzzle of starting pitching.

But with Walker Buehler out because of season-ending elbow surgery and the aging Clayton Kershaw battling back issues again, May is right there with Urias as the most talented arms the Dodgers have.

Adley Rutschman Catches Julio Rodríguez in AL Rookie of the Year Race...

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TORONTO, ON - AUGUST 16: Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles at bat in the first inning of their MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on August 16, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images)

Julio Rodríguez is still the favorite to win the award, but his early August absence while on the injured list and the continued strong play of Adley Rutschman has closed the gap a bit.

Already living up to the hype as MLB's next great catcher, Rutschman is having his best month so far, slashing .313/.446/.547 for a .993 OPS over 18 games in August.

In 27 games since the All-Star break, Rutschman is slashing .323/.463/.516 with a .979 OPS.

Meanwhile, Rodríguez is still playing well since being activated from the injured list a couple of weeks ago. But he missed time after the All-Star break with wrist soreness, both from the Home Run Derby and getting hit by a pitch in Houston on July 30.

His numbers lately are also not quite up there with Rutschman's. Rodríguez, through nine games in August, is hitting .296/.311/.409 with one home run. In 14 games played since the All-Star break, he's slashing .270/.303/.460 with three homers.

But a Different Rookie, Steven Kwan, Wins Batting Title

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CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 15: Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians singles in the seventh inning of the first game of a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on August 15, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

While Rutschman and Rodríguez battle it out for AL ROY, Cleveland Guardians rookie outfielder Steven Kwan is quietly making his own case.

He probably won't be able to do enough to outshine either player, but he is in the race for the AL batting title, ranking fifth as of Monday with a .301 average.

At 5'9", 170 pounds, Kwan doesn't provide much power, but he is an elite contact hitter who rarely strikes out. He rarely chases outside the zone or swings and misses.

This could be the boldest prediction of them all, considering Kwan is competing with Luis Arráez, José Abreu, Andrew Benintendi, and his own teammate, Andrés Giménez.

Only five rookies have ever pulled this off, and Kwan would be the first since Ichiro Suzuki did it in 2001.