Yankees' 5 Biggest Fears That Will Determine MLB Playoff Fate From Aaron Judge to George Lombard

After a long stay in a wilderness of mediocrity, things are looking up again for the New York Yankees.

They have won 10 out of 15, washing away with the sour taste of the 32-32 run that came before. They just clinched their season series with the Boston Red Sox. They can count the days until three-time MVP Aaron Judge is back.

As it is, the Yankees would be the American League's top wild-card team if the season ended today. Even better, FanDuel has them at +800 to win the World Series, the best of any team in the AL.

If anyone has been sensing a "But…" coming, here it is: The Yankees haven't actually won anything yet, and they still have much to worry about.

That first part is just objectively true. As for that second part, let's break down the Yankees' five biggest remaining fears in the form of questions.

When Will Aaron Judge Return…and How?

In the blink of an eye, the question of whether Judge will return this season has switched from an "if" thing to a "when" thing. He's resumed baseball activities and is even with the team for a six-game road trip on the West Coast.

If Judge's time away with a rib injury has proved anything, it's that the 34-year-old's MVP credentials might actually undersell his value to his team:

• Yankees with Judge: 36-23, .770 OPS
• Yankees without Judge: 42-37, .680 OPS

Nonetheless, the question remains: How sure can anyone be that Judge will be Judge again?

He may well be the GOAT right-handed hitter, but is he so good that he can get back in the swing of things without the benefit of a rehab assignment? He wants to find out, but the Yankees might want to insist otherwise.

After all, even GOATs shouldn't be too confident after three months off. And in the case of this GOAT, Judge wasn't hot when he landed on the IL. He had batted .207 with just two home runs over his last 22 games.

Can Any of the Incumbents Pick Up Giancarlo Stanton's Torch?

Even if Judge returns and starts hitting like an MVP again, the Yankees can't take it for granted that he alone can carry a World Series pursuit.

This is partly a knock on Judge, whose career playoff OPS is 200 points below his career regular-season OPS. It's also just a recognition that even someone as awesome as Judge needs help every now and again.

This is where Giancarlo Stanton pulled through when the Yankees went to the World Series in 2024, going off for a 1.048 OPS and seven homers. He somehow usurped Judge and Juan Soto in the spotlight.

Why bring it up? In part because Stanton is likely done for the year after sustaining a new calf injury, but also because of how New York's hitters have performed since Judge went down on May 31. Only two of their top 10 most oft-used batters have posted an above-average wRC+ (i.e., over 100):

Player	PA	wRC+
Ben Rice	334	111
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	268	97
Trent Grisham	248	99
José Caballero	229	81
Paul Goldschmidt	221	98
Cody Bellinger	216	83
Jasson Domínguez*	180	82
Spencer Jones	171	113
Austin Wells	163	71
Ryan McMahon^	143	92

*In minor leagues
^On injured list

Thank goodness for Luis García Jr., who has posted a 146 wRC+ since joining the Yankees ahead of the trade deadline. And sure, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (135 wRC+) has been warm if you only look as far back as August 4.

On the whole, though, the Yankees' Judge-less offense has been a rudderless ship. They probably don't want to find out what that could mean if nothing changes.

Who Is the Answer at Shortstop?

As a final point about the Yankees' everyday lineup, does anyone have a good take on who should be their shortstop come October?

The position has produced 2.7 rWAR this year, but 2.1 comes courtesy of glove-first utility infielder José Caballero. He was at short before Anthony Volpe failed his latest audition. Then the position passed to George Lombard Jr., who had everyone feeling impressed before the wheels fell off.

Lombard started out hitting .320 through his first seven games, and then .222 in his next 16 games after that. He also committed an error in six straight games, and now he's day-to-day with knee discomfort.

Volpe is arguably worth another shot in response to the heater he's been at Triple-A, where he has a 1.036 OPS over 12 games. It's more likely that this is Lombard's job until the Yankees are convinced it shouldn't be.

Obviously, the rookie is not trending well in this regard. If he can't reverse course, the light-hitting Caballero might reclaim shortstop by default.

Can the Bullpen Possibly Keep This Up?

The Yankees were linked to all sorts of bullpen upgrades before the trade deadline, including heavyweights like Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon. Yet they ended up empty-handed.

So, how bad has it been since then? Well, the Yankees have a 2.87 bullpen ERA since August 4. Strange but true, and it's largely a credit to a back-end duo of David Bednar and Brent Headrick that has been solid all year.

At the same time, the Yankees have enjoyed unsustainably strong performances from guys like Paul Blackburn and Tim Hill. The bullpen has otherwise been a veritable carousel of fringe relievers in recent weeks, and it now faces the prospect of being without Fernando Cruz for the rest of the year.

It isn't the best status quo for a bullpen that has been undermanned all year. With the trade deadline in the past, hope of stability now rests on converted starters like Luis Gil and (eventually) Clarke Schmidt.

It could work. Or, it could be a disaster that proves the Yankees should have been more aggressive pursuing trades when they had the chance.

Can the Starters Avoid Burnout?

It's not some big secret what makes this Yankees team dangerous. It's starting pitching.

Yankees starters lead MLB with a 3.36 ERA, and the guys who need to be healthy are healthy. Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are all right where they belong.

However, Cole, Fried and Rodón have spent time on the IL this year with arm-related ailments. Schlittler hasn't, yet the fear with him is connected to how he's already blown past his previous career high for innings:

• 2025: 149.2 IP
• 2026: 163.2 IP

This is with a month still to go before October, and there are already points of concern at play with the hard-throwing righty. Relative to the first half, Schlittler is walking more batters and allowing more hard contact thus far in the second half.

Schlittler is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award, so it goes without saying that he's the favorite to be New York's Game 1 starter in the playoffs. The last thing they need is him crumbling under the weight of fatigue.

The question lingering in the background is simple: If not the Yankees as AL favorites, then who?

Yeah, you've got me there. Their 78-60 record may be 4.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the best in the AL, but the Yankees' +108 run differential is easily the best. Because of the Judge factor, they also have the most potential left to tap into of any contender in the AL.

Given these circumstances, though, there should be a stronger feeling that this is the Yankees' year than there actually is. Doubt persists, and it persists precisely because of the fears laid out above.

Until they turn those questions into old news, the Yankees will remain in "prove it" territory.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.