Fantasy Football Busts You Need to Avoid in 2022
The road to fantasy football glory is littered with potholes on draft day.
This time of year, there's a lot of talk about sleepers and breakout candidates. It's the eternal optimism of the preseason and all the hope that comes with it for fantasy managers.
But for every unexpected player that crushes their average draft position (ADP), there are those who simply don't live up to the hype.
Identifying who those players could be and avoiding them in your drafts is a key element to winning draft season. As fantasy football draft season gets underway, now is a good time to start figuring out who you are out on.
Based on their current ADP, team situation, recent production and injury history, you might be better off looking at other options if these guys are at the top of the board when you get on the clock.
Average Draft Position (ADP) data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator based on a 12-team PPR league.
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
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Considering A.J. Brown's production, health and new team situation, you would think that his ADP would have taken a hit from where it was last season.
That's not the case, though. Last year, Brown was being taken with the first pick in the third round on average.
That was coming off a season in which he had 70 catches for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns and an established connection with quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
This year, he's coming off a season in which he saw a nearly identical number of targets but only reeled in 63 of his 105 looks for 869 yards and five touchdowns. That's not to mention that Brown missed four games with various ailments involving his hamstring, knee and calf.
Now, he's heading to the team that led the league in rushing play percentage in 2021. While you can argue the Titans were right behind them, Brown was only competing with what's left of Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for targets when Ryan Tannehill did throw.
He'll see much better competition for attention with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Quez Watkins all in the mix for Jalen Hurts.
Brown is going to have an impact for the Eagles, it just might not be the flashy one fantasy managers are hoping for.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
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It's easy to see the argument for J.K. Dobbins being a breakout candidate.
As a former second-round pick, he has the draft pedigree to get every opportunity to be an impact player. He scored nine touchdowns and averaged six yards per carry as a rookie in 2020, and he's in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league.
All of those factors are already priced into his current ADP, though.
Dobbins is going late in the third round as the 17th running back off the board. For him to exceed that draft slot, he's going to have to be a high-end RB2 and RB1 on his best weeks.
It's still early, but it's concerning for the former Ohio State back that he's starting training camp off on the Physically Unable to Perform list 11 months after he tore his ACL. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Dobbins is not guaranteed to be ready for the first week of the season.
Serious injuries are always tricky. A rushed return can result in complications, and every player's recovery looks different.
With Gus Edwards also starting off on the PUP list, the Ravens are unsettled in the backfield. Add in Lamar Jackson's penchant for stealing touchdowns on the ground, and it's hard to see Dobbins living up to his current price.
RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Leonard Fournette was a force in PPR leagues last season, finishing fifth among all running backs.
It was the highest finish of his career and a return to form after finishing seventh in 2019.
Those expecting more of the same should do so cautiously, though. Early reports from camp don't look great.
Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times noted on the Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast (h/t Jason Owens of Yahoo Sports) that Fournette showed up for camp weighing just shy of 260 pounds. While there's time for him to work the weight off and get in shape, Stroud mentioned the coaching staff wasn't thrilled:
"Coaches were not happy, and that's an understatement, when he didn't participate in the OTAs, but then he shows up at the mandatory minicamp weighing damn near 260. And that's not a good sign for a guy that you've just spent a three-year contract on."
There's no positive way to spin showing up to camp out of shape. It's especially troubling for fantasy managers when the Bucs spent a third-round draft pick on running back Rachaad White.
Fournette only rushed for 813 yards on the season, but his fantasy value was inflated by the 84 targets he saw in the passing game. White projects as a pass-catching option who should see the field.
The Bucs didn't have that last year. Ke'Shawn Vaughn has not really carved out a role for himself. Giovani Bernard was less productive than he was in Cincinnati. Ronald Jones II has never been known for his receiving skills.
White is a legitimate threat to eat into Fournette's target share and makes him a prime candidate to fail his ADP of 3.01.
TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
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Dawson Knox enjoyed a breakout season in his third year with the Buffalo Bills in 2021. He finished 10th among tight ends in PPR scoring.
Fantasy managers are clearly expecting an even bigger 2022 season. His current ADP has him going at the end of the seventh round as the ninth tight end off the board.
The problem for Knox is that much of his fantasy value came from his nine touchdowns last season. He was 17th in receptions and 15th in yards among all tight ends.
Yet, he was tied with Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry for most touchdowns.
Andrews and Kelce are elite because they are priorities in their teams' passing games. Even if their touchdown production took a dip, they would still be a starting tight end every week in fantasy.
The same can't be said for Knox. Stefon Diggs is a target hog (174 targets), Gabriel Davis was ascending at the end of last season and the team added Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard and Khalil Shakir in the offseason.
Knox relies too much on touchdowns to be a consistent top-10 tight end for fantasy purposes, so he could be in for some touchdown regression in 2022.
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
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Drafting based on name recognition can be a dangerous game. DK Metcalf is going to be a prime example in 2022.
Metcalf has become a household name over his first three seasons in the league. In 2020, he earned his first All-Pro selection and a trip to the Pro Bowl.
It became a lot more difficult for Metcalf to reach those kinds of heights this offseason. Instead of Russell Wilson throwing him the football, he's going to have either Geno Smith or Drew Lock.
It doesn't help that Metcalf's efficiency already took a hit last year. He had 129 targets for the second successive season but only came down with 58.1 percent of them and had a career-low 7.5 yards per target.
The Seahawks are going to have a talented duo of running backs in Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson. As long as games are close, they are likely to lean a little more heavily on them considering Wilson is now with the Denver Broncos.
That means less opportunity for Metcalf and a setup for a disappointing season. It's hard to envision Metcalf catching 12 touchdowns again in 2022 when 16 touchdowns is Lock's career-high and Smith hasn't touched that mark.
TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
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If you drafted Darren Waller in 2021, chances are you had a bad time. The Las Vegas Raiders tight end was one of fantasy football's biggest busts last season.
After a dominant 2020 campaign, he was the second-highest drafted tight end on average at the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3. He ended up only playing in 10 games because of injuries and a stint on the COVID list. He finished seventh in PPR scoring on a per-game basis.
We only saw Waller once after the series of injuries, and he caught just two passes despite nine targets.
You don't want to put too much emphasis on one game, but there are reasons to be cautious. Waller is approaching 30 years old and will come back to an offense that now features a target hog in Davante Adams.
Waller is in a tier of his own right now when it comes to ADP. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are typically going in the second round. Kyle Pitts and George Kittle are going at the turn from Round 3 to 4.
Waller is going in the late fourth and the next tight end off the board has been T.J. Hockenson who is getting drafted in the late fifth round.
With a questionable bill of health and a new hierarchy in the Raiders passing game, it's best to either target one of the top four tight ends early or wait.
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