MLB's 10 Most Intriguing Storylines to Track Post-All-Star Break
With the entire first half of the 2022 season, the Futures Game, the Draft, the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game all in the rear-view, Major League Baseball will rest now.
For a day, anyway. Then it's on to a second half that'll be chock-full of storylines.
We've hand-picked 10 that deserve your attention. They cover everything from looming feats for individual players and teams to injury returns to playoff races. And also, one of the biggest trade-deadline stories in recent history.
In lieu of ranking these 10 storylines, we've presented them in an order that starts with matters relating to individual players and ends with team- and playoff-related narratives.
The Juan Soto Trade Sweepstakes
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Even if it's not a storyline that will continue to play out in August and September, you can be darn sure that Juan Soto trade rumors will be hogging headlines in the last two weeks before the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
Previously, one could only speculate about the Washington Nationals moving the 23-year-old All-Star, World Series champion and Home Run Derby winner. Now it's a real possibility. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Saturday, the Nats are planning to entertain offers for Soto after he rejected a 15-year, $440 million contract extension.
To put it in understatement terms, this is kind of a big deal.
Hitters like Soto just don't come around all that often. Or really ever, frankly. Before him, the only player to post a .425 on-base percentage and 100 home runs through his age-23 season was Ted Williams, who's better known as literally the greatest hitter who ever lived.
Factoring in that Soto is under club control through 2024, his hypothetical trade value is so great that it defies precedent. That could make it hard for the Nats to actually move him. But if they do, it could prove to be the most impactful deal this side of the Boston Red Sox selling Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees in 1920.
Old School vs. New School in the AL Cy Young Race
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Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is pacing the National League with a 1.76 ERA and all of MLB with 138.1 innings, so the Senior Circuit has an obvious front-runner for the Cy Young Award.
On the American League side, what's taken shape resembles a generational battle.
All respect to Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah and Shohei Ohtani (more on him in a moment), but the race for the AL Cy Young Award presently looks like a two-horse affair between Houston Astros right-hander Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan:
- Verlander: 17 GS, 109.1 IP, 77 H (11 HR), 108 K, 19 BB, 1.89 ERA
- McClanahan: 18 GS, 110.2 IP, 69 H (12 HR), 147 K, 19 BB, 1.71 ERA
McClanahan has a sizable edge in strikeouts, but it's no accident that he only barely has the edge in innings despite having made just one more start than Verlander. McClanahan has touched the 100-pitch threshold just once, whereas Verlander has done so seven times.
Basically, a proper workhorse is up against more of a six-and-nix—we're making this a thing only because "five-and-dive" doesn't quite accurately describe McClanahan—kind of guy. Even setting aside the fact that Verlander is 39 years old and McClanahan is only 25, it doesn't get much more old-school vs. new-school than this.
Shohei Ohtani to the Max
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As he's only racked up 87 innings while pitching once a week in the Los Angeles Angels' six-man rotation, Ohtani has his work cut out for him in the AL Cy Young Award race.
But a second straight AL MVP? That's very much in the realm of "doable" with how hot Ohtani has been of late. Since June 9, he has a .964 OPS and eight home runs as a hitter and a 0.45 ERA with 58 strikeouts over 39.2 innings as a pitcher.
As he did in 2021, Ohtani is once again leading the American League with 4.9 rWAR in 2022. That puts him half a win up on New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who spent much of the first half with what seemed like a comfortable lead in the AL MVP race.
With the Angels having lost 40 out of their last 55 games, there is the catch that Ohtani's efforts are largely going to waste. And with it, the question of whether they might give him the Soto treatment and put him on the trade market.
To the latter, you can count us as being in "believe it when we see it" mode as we otherwise keep our eyes glued to Ohtani's two-way brilliance.
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The Red Sox on the Brink
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As evidenced by the MLB-leading 31 wins they racked up between May 13 and June 26, there's a pretty good team somewhere in the Boston Red Sox. Maybe it'll come out again.
Yet the clock is ticking.
After losing 14 out of 20 to end the first half, the Sox will open the second half only three games over .500 at 48-45. Making matters worse is all the injuries they've been dealing with. The latest and arguably most crushing is Chris Sale's broken finger, which came mere days after his return from a ribcage injury heralded a potential turning of the tide.
If the Red Sox's slide continues over the next two weeks, there's a non-zero chance that they'll give the trade market a major shake by making their pending free agents available. That list includes J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts, who's likely to opt out of his contract.
Unless, of course, the Red Sox opt to keep everyone and hope their luck improves down the stretch. There's a non-zero chance of this, too, which basically makes the Red Sox the ultimate swing team for the second half of the '22 season.
Whither the Underachievers
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Where the Red Sox fall on the overachiever/underachiever spectrum is subject to debate, but that's not the case with the San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.
After winning 107 and 93 games, respectively, in 2021, neither the Giants (48-43) nor the White Sox (46-46) have even gotten to 50 wins yet in 2022. The Blue Jays (50-43) have exactly that many victories, but at no point have they resembled the juggernaut many expected them to become after last year's 91-win statement.
At least the Jays endeavored to shake things up by firing manager Charlie Montoyo. They promptly won four out of five under interim skipper John Schneider, hinting at a potential turnaround similar to the one the Philadelphia Phillies prompted by axing Joe Girardi.
Perhaps the White Sox should take the hint and show Tony La Russa the door. They've slightly over-performed their expected winning percentage under him, but his in-game managing has occasionally baffled and there have been reports of "unrest" in the clubhouse.
As for you, Giants...well, start by fixing that atrocious defense and go from there.
In any case, it's hard to shake the notion that none of these clubs has played its best baseball yet. If that proves to be true, all three could dramatically alter the playoff races in the AL and NL.
Who Wants the Central Divisions?
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Seriously, who wants 'em? Because right now, the answer seems to be nobody in particular.
In the NL Central, a mere half-game separates the Milwaukee Brewers (50-43) from the St. Louis Cardinals (50-44). In its American League counterpart, the Minnesota Twins (50-44), Cleveland Guardians (46-44) and White Sox are within three games of each other.
As they're only 13-16 since he went on the injured list with a knee injury on June 16, what the Cardinals may need more than anything is the return of Yadier Molina. Milwaukee's white whale remains Christian Yelich rediscovering a power stroke that still exists in his metrics, but which hasn't been seen consistently in his results since 2019.
In addition to any potential firings (cough, La Russa, cough) and players returning from injury, the AL Central race could be swung by the trade deadline. The Guardians' third-ranked farm system gives them an edge there in theory, but perhaps not in reality if the Dolans continue to keep the team's purse strings snare-drum levels of tight.
While one could perhaps see the closeness of the AL and NL Central races as a sign of parity within both divisions, it's more so one of mediocrity. Somehow, some way, one team will have to rise above the rest down the stretch.
The NL West Race, Now Featuring Fernando Tatis Jr.
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Meanwhile in the National League West, the San Diego Padres were tied for first place with the Los Angeles Dodgers as recently as June 22.
When the first half ended, though, the Padres (52-42) found themselves 10 games behind the Dodgers (60-30). Things like that can happen when a team stops hitting, as the Padres did as they ranked 27th in wRC+ between June 23 and July 17.
Mercifully, help is on the way for the Friars. After finally beginning his hitting progression on July 15, they expect Fernando Tatis Jr. to return from a broken wrist in August. When he does return, they'll be welcoming back the NL's reigning home run champion and one of the most dynamic players in the sport.
It would also be very much within Padres general manager A.J. Preller's character to make a blockbuster trade at the deadline. To this end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post has already pegged San Diego as a favorite for Soto.
Of course, the Dodgers won't willingly cede ground to the Padres in the fight for the NL West. Even if they don't beat San Diego to Soto or make some other kind of seismic move, they stand to regain Walker Buehler and Dustin May before the end of the year.
The NL East Race, Now Featuring Jacob deGrom
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In the NL East, the New York Mets (58-35) will begin the second half in first place, even though they've yet to get a single start from baseball's best pitcher.
This should change before long.
Jacob deGrom, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who pitched to a 1.94 ERA between 2018 and 2021, has already made three rehab starts in his recovery from a stress reaction in his right shoulder. He did experience a setback on Sunday, but early indications are it's a minor one:
Though they've gotten by without deGrom so far, the Mets will surely need to get as many starts as they can out of him if they want to keep holding off Atlanta. The defending World Series champions are only 2.5 games off the pace at 56-38, with an MLB-high 33 of those wins coming just since the start of June.
It's also premature to write off the Phillies, who are 28-14 since May turned to June. Thus have they admirably weathered the absence of two-time MVP Bryce Harper as he's been out with a broken thumb, an injury from which he could conceivably return before September.
Julio Rodriguez and the Mariners Aim to End a Drought
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You might think of the Pacific Northwest as being gray and soggy, but right now, it's home to the hottest thing under the sun.
Indeed, the Seattle Mariners' quest to snap a playoff drought that dates back to 2001 is in good shape. They went into the All-Star break on a 14-game win streak—the longest ever by any team to end the first half, per ESPN Stats & Info—and with only three losses in their last 25 games.
It's primarily the Julio Rodriguez Show in Seattle right now. The 21-year-old rookie went into the break with a 1.000 OPS during the Mariners' hot stretch and then put on a record-setting display in the Home Run Derby on Monday:
Never mind just the Rookie of the Year. If Rodriguez, who has 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases on the season, can stay hot, he might even be able to come from behind to snag the AL MVP.
Alas, the Mariners (51-42) will still be nine games behind the Astros (59-32) in the AL West race when the second half begins. But as long as they at least maintain one of the AL's three wild-card spots, the Mariners' 21-year nightmare would end all the same.
Aaron Judge and the Yankees Chase History
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Out of the six division races, there's only one that really feels out of reach going into the second half of the season.
That's how dominant the New York Yankees—and, more specifically, Aaron Judge—have been in 2022. At 64-28, the team is on track for what would be only the seventh season of 110 or more wins. And with 33 home runs through 89 games, Judge has a shot at breaking Roger Maris' club record of 61 from 1961.
Granted, the 6'7", 282-pound Judge isn't quite keeping pace with Maris, who hit 35 home runs through his first 89 games of '61. The club has also cooled off of late, winning "only" 15 of its last 27 games before the break.
But if nothing else, there are real stakes to motivate both Judge and the Yankees down the stretch.
For the sake of the AL MVP race and his looming free agency, it can't hurt Judge to pad his stats. And if the Yankees really want to make it to their first World Series since 2009—and they do—claiming the No. 1 seed for the American League playoff field can only help.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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