Buying or Selling the Biggest Signings of 2022 NHL Free Agency
NHL Free agency officially opened on Wednesday, July 13th. With that came a flurry of signings and trades across the NHL. Some of these moves were great investments that will aid the team in its next stage of building towards an eventual Stanley Cup contender. Others have just tied themselves to problems that could haunt them for years. A few may fall somewhere in the middle.
Bleacher Report's Adam Herman breaks down the major moves from Wednesday and assesses whether NHL onlookers should buy or sell each decision.
Johnny Hockey Stuns the Hockey World, Signs with Columbus
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Johnny Gaudreau, the top free agent on the market, told the Calgary Flames on Tuesday that he was making an emotional decision to leave Alberta and move closer to home.
Gaudreau is a native of South Jersey, which left the New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, and New York Islanders champing at the bit. Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher, who signed fourth-line winger Nicolas Deslauriers to a four-year contract and couldn't move James van Riemsdyk to make cap room, admitted that his team didn't have the space to fit him. The Devils and Islanders held out and even postponed press conferences.
Then, out of nowhere, Gaudreau signs with the Columbus Blue Jackets for seven years at a $9.8 million cap hit.
"Johnny Hockey" will have to explain his reasoning, but it is not the most intuitive move from the outside looking in. The Blue Jackets are a small-market team in a rebuilding phase. Columbus is significantly closer to his family than Calgary but less so than the Devils or Islanders would have been. The $9.8 million is below his true value and reportedly less than what Calgary offered.
But what a moment for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are having what has to be the most validating day in franchise history. After the likes of Rick Nash, Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Sergei Bobrovsky and Pierre-Luc Dubois left for greener pastures, suddenly, a superstar handpicked them as the place he wanted to commit to.
Only Connor McDavid had more points than Gaudreau (115) last season. The winger won't make the Blue Jackets a Cup winner overnight, but the moment feels similar to Panarin's signing in New York when a superstar joined a team catching momentum in its rebuild. With him and a major youth movement now in the fold, the best days may be ahead for a franchise that hasn't had much luck getting over the hump.
Verdict: On a day when teams make several moves that are hotly debated, this is one we can all buy.
Claude Giroux Goes Home to Ottawa
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Claude Giroux grew up in Ontario and made Ottawa his family's summer home years ago. He has turned that into a full-time commitment, signing a three-year contract with the Ottawa Senators worth a $6.5 million cap hit per season.
Giroux may not be the superstar he once was in Philadelphia, but the forward remains a major contributor. Last season, he registered 18 goals and 24 assists on an otherwise toothless Flyers team before being traded to the Panthers, where he earned 23 points in 18 regular season games. He's also a strong defensive presence and will bring veteran experience to a young Senators group.
Though geography made a major impact on this decision, Giroux doesn't sign with Ottawa if he sees it as a graveyard for the end of his NHL career. That he perceives the Senators as a team where he can still thrive and win brings some welcome moxie to an organization that has been picked on for the last few years.
Verdict: This move is an easy buy for the Senators.
Evgeni Malkin Stays in Pittsburgh
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After turbulent negotiations that foreshadowed Evgeni Malkin's arrival on the free-agent market, the Russian center and the Pittsburgh Penguins made up and signed a four-year contract with an annual $6.1 million cap hit.
From a pure hockey standpoint, the move makes a lot of sense. Yes, that is quite the contract to give to a soon-to-be 36-year-old who's coming off an injury-filled season, but Kris Letang is 35, Sidney Crosby is nearly 35 and the Penguins have little youth to speak of. The organization will be in a world of hurt in a few years regardless, so it might as well lean into that and chase one last Cup with this group.
The re-signing is also a great announcement for existential reasons. Malkin has spent his whole Hall of Fame career in Pittsburgh. He has won three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe. It would have been a shame had that relationship ended on poor terms.
Verdict: This is an easy move to buy.
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Max Pacioretty and Brent Burns Head to Carolina
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At this time of year, acquiring valuable players often requires paying up. The Hurricanes managed to pull in two former All-Stars for not much at all.
Brent Burns, acquired from the San Jose Sharks, is not the player he once was, but that does not mean he is no longer an asset. The 37-year-old does not really drive play anymore and won't be anything special defensively, but the Canes already have that covered. He is still a major threat in the offensive zone and particularly on the power play, as his ten goals and 44 assists last season indicates.
To acquire him, Carolina parted with fourth-liner Steven Lorentz, AHL goaltender Eetu Makiniemi, and a 2023 third-round pick. San Jose also ate $2.72 million of Burns' $8 million cap hit for the next three years.
The Hurricanes also managed to scoop up Max Pacioretty and Dylan Coghlan from the Vegas Golden Knights in return for...nothing. Although he turns 34 in November, Pacioretty has been a lock for a 30-plus goal pace nearly every season for the last 11 seasons. Last season, he tallied 19 goals in 39 games for a pace of 40 over a full 82-game slate. His $7 million cap hit ending in 2023 is well worth the price of admission. And not for nothing, Dylan Coghlan, a decent shot suppressor who is 24 and on a $762,500 cap hit, is close to an ideal No. 6 or 7 defenseman.
We're absolutely selling on the Golden Knights, who are reaping what they sowed with reckless spending and had to give up a first-line winger and young depth defenseman for future considerations. We're buying on the Sharks, who can't exactly spike the football but get out of a $5.28 million cap hit the next three seasons for a player outside the scope of their long-term outlook.
Verdict: We're all-in on the Hurricanes, who gave up practically nothing and got two absolutely massive pieces that may be what finally pushes them from a good team to Eastern Conference Champions. Consider it an enthusiastic buy.
Rangers Add Vincent Trocheck to Fill Center Need
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The Rangers adding a second-line center this summer was one of the summer's worst-kept secrets. Unrestricted free agent Ryan Strome never appeared close to re-signing, while Andrew Copp was a UFA rental who spent most of the season on the wing. With several options potentially available, it wasn't clear what direction they would go.
The answer is apparently Vincent Trocheck, who spent the past three seasons in Carolina and previously played for Blueshrirts' head coach Gerard Gallant with the Florida Panthers.
Make no mistake, Trocheck is a good player. He scored 21 goals and added 30 assists in what was a down year for him; he produced 43 points in 47 games the season before. He also plays a solid defensive game, wins faceoffs, and is more of a shooter than Strome was, which the Rangers need on the second line.
This isn't about the player himself, but the contract. A seven-year deal for $5.6 million per season is a lot to commit to a player who is probably on the lower end of the spectrum of second-line centers. This is particularly true for a team with little cap space to spend and 22-year-old center Filip Chytil up for a big raise next season.
Not every decision is black-and-white, so it's possible to recognize that Trocheck is a quality player while also recognizing that the juice might not be worth the squeeze here.
Verdict: Unless the Rangers have a surprise in store to move a different major, long-term contract, this is a sell.
Oilers Keep Evander Kane
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Evander Kane, whom the Edmonton Oilers signed midseason after the San Jose Sharks terminated his contract, is staying in Alberta on a four-year deal with an annual cap hit of $5.125 million.
Kane, 30, is undoubtedly talented. He produced 39 points in 43 regular-season games plus 13 goals in 15 playoff games while in Edmonton. On that basis, the contract is a great one for the Oilers.
However, Kane comes with a lot of concerns. He's reportedly had problems fitting into locker rooms and was suspended for 21 games after he used a forged COVID-19 vaccination card, and his ex-wife, Anna Kane, accused him of abuse.
An NHL investigation determined her allegations, which also included that he bet on his own team's games, could not be substantiated.
Given the concerns off the ice, we won't give this signing a buy or sell. Kane has the ability to be a very good hockey player in Edmonton, and general manager Ken Holland has determined that giving him a four-year deal is a decision he can stand by ethically. Where you stand on the matter likely depends on your trust in the NHL's investigation and also in Kane to remain available for the Oilers.
Oilers Soup Up in Net with Jack Campbell
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That the Oilers would add a goaltender was the free space on the NHL offseason bingo board. An upgrade was coming even if Mike Smith hadn't retired, as the Oilers got atrocious goaltending for most of the season.
They addressed this need with Jack Campbell. The former first-round pick has had an Odyssean career trajectory from top prospect, to draft bust, to backup goaltending reclamation project, to Toronto Maple Leafs starter and NHL All-Star.
On one hand, the goalie market was thin, and Campbell was one of the better options. However, $5 million per year for five years is an awful lot to dedicate to a goaltender who has never broached 50 starts in a single NHL season and, in fact, only surpassed the 26-start benchmark last season in which he started hot and then completely lost his game.
Per Evolving Hockey, Campbell has allowed 9.9 goals more than expected over the last three seasons combined, and now he'll be expected to take on the biggest workload of his career at age 30. The Oilers definitely upgraded in goal, but the bar was on the floor, and they might seriously regret this move in a year or two when far better options become available.
Verdict: The logic of the move is easy to follow, but that doesn't mean it's worth buying. Consider this a sell.
Darcy Kuemper Joins the Capitals
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The Washington Capitals cleaned house in goal after an underwhelming era post-Braden Holtby, trading Vitek Vanecek to the Devils and allowing former first-round pick Ilya Samsonov to walk.
Their main replacement appears to be Darcy Kuemper, who is coming off a Stanley Cup victory with the Colorado Avalanche. No doubt, this is a sizable upgrade in net for the Capitals. Per Evolving Hockey, Kuemper ranked sixth among all netminders last season by goals saved above expected (+15.77).
Some skepticism is in order here in that he's not going to have the easy workload the Avalanche provided; just ask Philipp Grubauer how his season went in Seattle. And although the $5.25 million cap hit is reasonable, the five years allocated to a 32-year-old goaltender isn't risk-free.
Still, Kuemper was the top goaltender on the market this summer, and the Capitals are approaching their last hurrah with the core of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, and T.J. Oshie.
Verdict: We're buying this move without much hesitation.
The Lightning Sign Three RFAs Long-Term
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Sometimes it's not about signing unrestricted free agents but instead ensuring that your own players don't get to that stage.
The Tampa Bay Lightning made major moves on Wednesday, signing restricted free agents Anthony Cirelli, Eric Cernak, and Mikhail Sergachev to eight-year contracts.
Cirelli, a 24-year-old center, signed for an average annual value of $6.25 million. He potted 17 goals and added 26 assists in 76 regular season games. As he improves as a player and earns more minutes when Stamkos reaches the twilight years, he should be able to edge closer to 50-55 points. More importantly, Cirelli is a tremendous defensive center. If his play doesn't perfectly match this contract, it will get close.
Cernak, 25, is one of the game's better defensive defensemen. He is borderline elite at defending the neutral zone, and Evolving Hockey has him in the 90th percentile for defensive output over the last three seasons. In all likelihood, he is worth the $5.2 million cap hit now and in the immediate future. It's the five to six years afterward that are risky, as most defensemen of this type don't have long shelf lives.
Sergachev, who turned 24 a few weeks ago, got the biggest contract of the three with an $8.5 million cap hit. The Russian defenseman is 6'3", 216 pounds, and he has averaged roughly 40 points per 82 games over his five years with the Lightning. However, the former ninth overall pick is merely an average defender and doesn't really drive possession.
That aspect could become part of his game as he hits his prime, but his contract implies much more from him. Although the circumstances are slightly different, Norris Trophy winners Cale Makar and Adam Fox are earning similar money. Sergachev has the ability to get there, but his trajectory is not quite headed in that direction, either.
All three were major parts of two Stanley Cups, but their value was found in their abilities to outperform their low contracts at the time. That is now gone. Keeping these three ensures that their contention window short-term doesn't expire, but the Lightning are assuming a heavy amount of risk here, and there isn't a lot of margin for error baked into these deals. A nuanced view would be that today's extensions could work out but may more likely not.
Verdict: Since we're dealing with a binary judgment and grouping all three together, these commitments collectively earn a sell.
Other Notable Free Agent Signings
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Let's finish with a speed round and quickly offer thoughts on some other notable moves from Wednesday.
Andre Burakovsky to Seattle (5 years, $27.5M): He doesn't address their need for a big-time point producer, but Burakovsky is a major driver of possession and the contract. Will he be able to do it without Colorado's big horses in front? That's to be seen, but we'll buy this.
Mason Marchment to Dallas (4 years, $18M): A true late bloomer, Marchment made his NHL debut at age 24 and came into this season with 2 goals in 37 games. He tallied 18 goals and 29 assists in 54 games. Better yet, Marchment is one of the best defensive wingers in the game. Dallas is taking a slight risk given his lack of track of record, but this has the potential to be a steal. Buy.
Andrew Copp, David Perron, and Ben Chiarot to Detroit: The Red Wngs were a one-line and one-pairing team last season, and they were over-reliant on the youth. Copp (5 years, $28.125M) and David Perron (2 years, $9M) will give them a dependable second line. Ben Chiarot (4 years, $19M) is a different story. He was overrated in his best moments and struggled massively mast season. Detroit gave No. 3 defenseman money to a No. 6 defenseman. Copp and Perron earn a buy, while the Chiarot signing gets a sell.
Nick Leddy Re-signs in St. Louis (4 years, $16M): Leddy played fairly well in his St. Louis cameo last season, but his game has declined severely in recent years. Four years for a 31-year-old defenseman is a huge commitment to a player that Evolving Hockey ranks in the 13th percentile for defenseman over the last three seasons. Maybe he is revitalized in St. Louis but we're selling this one.
Erik Gudbranson to Columbus (4 years, $16M): The Blue Jackets are arguably the free agent winners, but that's in spite of this move. To his credit, Gudbranson is coming off best season of his career in Calgary, but that is to say he played like a solid third-pairing defenseman rather than one below replacement level. A physical player who is now 30, it's not going to get any better from here. Sell.
Ryan Strome to Anaheim (5 years $25M): Entering the day, the Ducks' collection of centers was highlighted by Trevor Zegras (21), Mason MacTavish (19), and Isaac Lundestrom (22). They needed a veteran top-six center to take some of the load; particularly for Zegras. Strome was probably Anaheim's best realistic option. He's good enough to do the job but is not the massive investment that a Nazem Kadri or Vincent Trocheck would have required. They may want to wiggle out of the contract in 4 or 5 years, but that's a potential problem for a late date. Anaheim needed to give their youth movement a shoulder to lean on and Strome fits the description. This is a move we buy.
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