Fresh MLB Stat Leader Predictions 2 Months into 2022 Season
Nearly two months into the 2022 Major League Baseball season, Aaron Judge is leading all players in home runs, Jose Ramirez is tops in RBI, Martin Perez has the best ERA and Josh Hader is No. 1 in saves.
Will all of those players finish the season atop those leaderboards?
Will any of them?
Fifty-two games into last season, Sal Perez had just 10 home runs and 33 RBI, only to rack up 38 and 88, respectively, the rest of the way to lead the majors in both categories.
We've been impressed by the leaders through the first third of this campaign, but a lot can change between now and early October.
With that in mind, we've projected the 2022 leader in 10 major stat categories (five batting; five pitching). And if we manage to get three out of 10 right, please remember that's a solid batting average.
Batting Average
1 of 10
Current Leader: J.D. Martinez (.357)
Projected Champion: J.D. Martinez
One week ago, the pick here would have been Tim Anderson. The White Sox shortstop is currently hitting .356, led the majors with a .335 batting average in 2019 and is well on his way to a fourth consecutive season of hitting over .300.
But the groin injury that he sustained on May 29 is expected to sideline him until late June, which may keep him from making enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Plus, after what could be a month off, there's always the possibility that he's a bit off his game for the first week or two back in the lineup.
With Anderson's status up in the air, we'll go with Martinez, who recently had a 25-game stretch in which he hit .437.
The 34-year-old DH is nowhere near the slugger that he used to be. He averaged 48 home runs per 162 games played from 2017-19 and is only on pace for about 20 this season. But the man who hit over .300 each year from 2016-19 is still plenty capable of hitting it where they ain't.
And if Martinez doesn't win it, perhaps we can at least get partial credit for picking the correct team? Because Rafael Devers (.338) and Xander Bogaerts (.325) are both strong candidates, too.
Home Runs
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Current Leader: Aaron Judge (20)
Projected Champion: Pete Alonso
Aaron Judge currently has a four-HR lead over his closest challenger (Mookie Betts with 16), so betting against him might seem like a foolish idea. After all, this isn't some Joe Schmo who has gotten out to an unsustainably hot start out of nowhere. Judge has 174 home runs since the beginning of 2017, good for the most in the majors.
Here's the thing, though: Judge has historically done his best mashing in the first two months of the year. He entered the current month with a career OPS of 1.015 and PA/HR ratio of 13.9 in March-May compared to .904 and 16.0, respectively, from June 1 onward.
While a .904 OPS and a home run for every 16 trips to the plate are still doggone impressive rates, any dip in production will leave the door open for other sluggers to catch him.
And if I'm going to bet against Judge, I'm going to at least bet on the Polar Bear.
As a rookie in 2019, Pete Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs. In the two-plus seasons since then, he's still averaging better than 40 home runs per 162 games played. And now that the NL has adopted the DH, Alonso legitimately might play in all 162 games this season.
Alonso got out to a slow start with just three dingers in his first 20 games, but he then crushed 10 in his next 30. And if we're going to focus on career splits for Judge, it's worth pointing out that Alonso started this month with a career .962 OPS in June (his highest of any month), and has averaged a home run for every 11.9 trips to the plate in September/October.
Runs Batted In
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Current Leader: Jose Ramirez (52)
Projected Champion: Trea Turner
Three weeks into the season, Jose Ramirez was on pace for 227 RBI, which would have shattered Hack Wilson's all-time record of 191 set in 1930. Since then, however, he has come back to earth with a more modest 24 RBI in his last 27 games.
Part of it is Jo-Ram's own cooling off after batting .360 through those first three weeks. But the bigger part—and the reason we're betting against MLB's current RBI leader—is that the bats in front of him have cooled off, too. Leadoff man Myles Straw had a .387 OBP in April and a .286 OBP in May. Steven Kwan has batted directly in front of Jo-Ram more times than any other player, but he went from a .459 OBP in April to a .271 mark in May. Amed Rosario has been hitting in the 2-hole as of late, but even he only has a .282 OBP.
Simply put, the opportunities to drive in runs aren't as plentiful as they used to be, and we don't expect that to get much better.
For the guy batting third in the Dodgers lineup, though, hitting with runners on base is quite common. In fact, Trea Turner has made more plate appearances with runners on base (114) than he has with the bases empty (111). And after getting out to a disappointing start with a .250 batting average through his first 27 games, Turner has been red hot as of late, batting .350 during a 26-game hitting streak. He has also rediscovered his power, hitting four of his five home runs on the year in the second half of May.
Turner is 10 RBI behind Ramirez for now. But given his career .302 batting average and the constant state of opportunity in the heart of LA's lineup, it would not be surprising if Turner becomes the first player to eclipse 140 in a season since Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard had 141 RBI in 2009.
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Stolen Bases
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Current Leader: Julio Rodriguez (15)
Projected Champion: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Early in the season, it seemed like Julio Rodriguez was stealing bases to make up for struggling at the plate. Through 20 games, he was triple-slashing .205/.284/.260, but at least he had swiped nine bags. Since heating up, though, he has dialed back the thievery substantially, going from one stolen base for every two hits/walks to one stolen base for every eight hits/walks.
And it's not like he came to the majors as a base-stealing machine. In 217 career games in the minors, Rodriguez only stole 32 bases. He did record 16 of those swipes in just 46 games at the Double-A level last season, but it was never really his M.O.
So, instead of the current leader, give us the guy on the surgically repaired ACL who is running like there's no tomorrow.
Ronald Acuna Jr. didn't make his season debut until April 28, but he immediately stole two bases in that first game. And then from May 7-21, he stole six bags in the span of seven games played—this despite tweaking his groin and missing a week of action in the middle of that stretch.
Through his first 19 games back, Acuna was averaging a stolen base for every 9.4 trips to the plate. At that rate, even if he only makes 472 plate appearances—he made 360 in 82 games played last season, so 472 should be no problem if he stays healthy—he'd be on pace for 50 stolen bases.
The last time anyone stole more than 47 bases in a season was when Dee Strange-Gordon and Billy Hamilton raced to 60 and 59, respectively, in 2017. Fifty would figure to more than do the trick if Acuna gets there.
Wins Above Replacement (Batters)
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Current Leader: Manny Machado (3.6 FanGraphs; 3.5 Baseball Reference)
Projected Champion: Mike Trout
After 27 games, Manny Machado was batting .382/.458/.657 with seven home runs and six stolen bases. At that point, it almost felt safe to start engraving his name on the NL MVP trophy.
He has cooled off considerably since then, but is still hitting .344 with 23 extra-base hits for the season and remains MLB's leader in wins above replacement.
But do you seriously want to bet against Mike Trout in WAR?
Per FanGraphs, there have been 13 instances in the past decade of a player posting a WAR of 8.3 or better: Buster Posey in 2012, Miguel Cabrera in 2013, Bryce Harper in 2015, Josh Donaldson in 2015, Aaron Judge in 2017, Mookie Betts in 2018 and Trout in '12, '13, '14, '15, '16, '18 and '19.
The man has been responsible for more than half of the best seasons of the past 10 years. And he's having another solid year in 2022, currently 0.9 FanGraphs WAR and 1.0 Baseball Reference WAR behind Machado.
Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez and, of course, Machado are all strong candidates to lead the majors in WAR. However, we've got to go with Ol' Faithful in Anaheim.
Quality Starts
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Current Leader: Joe Musgrove (10)
Projected Champion: Sandy Alcantara
San Diego's starting rotation has been rock solid thus far this season, but its undisputed king of quality starts (at least 6.0 innings pitched; three or fewer earned runs allowed) has been Joe Musgrove.
Musgrove is 10-for-10 in the quality starts department and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a single start.
However, eight of those 10 starts came against sub-.500 competition, and we're talking about a pitcher who went just 15-for-31 in quality starts last season. (Granted, one of those was a super quality no-hitter.)
That doesn't mean he can't stay hot, but it's likely going to take around 26 quality starts to lead the league, and there are several other candidates to get there.
Toronto's Alek Manoah made his ninth quality start of the season on Thursday, but just as a rule of thumb, I'm not picking someone to lead the majors in quality starts when he has yet to log 130 innings in a season in his professional career.
But Miami's Sandy Alcantara is a great candidate who finished tied for second behind Walker Buehler in this category in 2021.
Alcantara made 23 quality starts last season, already has eight this season and has been on an absolute tear as of late. Never mind six innings and three runs—he has made five consecutive starts of at least seven innings with either zero or one earned runs allowed, including a 14-strikeout gem in a May 28 victory over the Braves.
Earned Run Average
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Current Leader: Martin Perez (1.42)
Projected Champion: Corbin Burnes
Talk about coming out of nowhere.
After eight consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 4.30—and after pitching so poorly last season that Boston converted him to a middle-relief role in early August—there sits Martin Perez with the lowest ERA among qualified pitchers.
And he actually started out poorly, opening the season with identical back-to-back starts of 4.0 innings pitched with three earned runs allowed. Since then, he has made eight straight starts without allowing multiple earned runs, has a 0.65 ERA and tossed a complete-game shutout against the Houston Astros.
If he keeps this up for another seven weeks, the 32-year-old on a one-year deal with the sub-.500 Rangers will incite quite the bidding war at the trade deadline. And if he keeps it up for another four months, it would go down as both one of the best and one of the most unexpected seasons in recent history.
Lurking down the list, however, is a much more proven commodity in the form of Corbin Burnes.
Burnes led the majors with a 2.43 ERA in 2021 and is seeking to become the first back-to-back ERA champ since Clayton Kershaw led the majors for four straight years from 2011-14.
And even after a dud against the Padres on Friday night, he currently has a 2.50 ERA and has made eight quality starts. (So, he's very much a candidate to lead the majors in QS, too.) And pitching in a division with the Cubs, Pirates and Reds doesn't hurt his case.
Strikeouts
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Current Leader: Shane McClanahan (89)
Projected Champion: Gerrit Cole
Let's begin this section by pointing out we're looking for total strikeouts, not K/9 or strikeout percentage. Shohei Ohtani would be a solid pick for either of the latter two categories, but he's probably only going to make around 27 starts and rarely pitches into the seventh inning. He might lead the majors in K/9 and still finish 50 strikeouts behind the champion.
It will take around 250 to win total strikeouts, and the current leader, Shane McClanahan, could certainly get there.
The Rays ace has struck out at least seven batters in all but one start in 2022, and he averaged 10.3 K/9 last season as a rookie. But just like the argument against Alek Manoah for quality starts, I have a hard time backing a 25-year-old who has yet to pitch 125 innings in a season in his professional career.
Instead, give me Gerrit Cole, who has been lights out since a rough first three starts.
Cole only made five starts in May following some rainouts early in the month, but he struck out 45 batters in those five starts. Then he opened June with nine strikeouts while flirting with a perfect game against the Tigers.
Not exactly a new phenomenon for him. He led the majors in K/9 in 2018 and 2019 and finished third in the majors with 243 Ks in 2021.
If he stays healthy and makes at least 30 starts, Cole is practically a lock to finish top five in strikeouts. It's why the Yankees signed him to a nine-year deal worth $324 million.
Total Saves
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Current Leader: Josh Hader (18)
Projected Champion: Josh Hader
Projecting the saves leader is about as scientific as projecting the top kicker for fantasy football: It needs to be someone who can routinely capitalize on an opportunity, but it also needs to be someone who is fortunate enough to get a ton of opportunities.
It's rarely, if ever, the closer for the best team. In fact, in both 2017 (Alex Colome with 47 saves) and 2019 (Kirby Yates with 41 saves), the saves champ came from a team that finished below .500. And the most recent outright saves leader to play for a team that even won its division was Jose Valverde (49) with the Tigers in 2011.
But when it comes to capitalizing on opportunity, no one is better than Milwaukee's Josh Hader.
The Brewers' left-handed wonder has recorded a save in each of his 18 appearances this season and has tallied a save in 56-of-57 chances dating back to September 2020. He had a 1.23 ERA last season and has yet to allow a single run in 2022.
And the Brewers love to play close contests. Milwaukee games have either ended in a save or walk-off fashion in 37-of-54 games played this season. Unless something changes and the Brew Crew suddenly starts competing in nightly blowouts, Hader should be able to maintain his lead over the likes of San Diego's Taylor Rogers and Toronto's Jordan Romano.
Wins Above Replacement (Pitchers)
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Current Leader: Kevin Gausman (2.7 FanGraphs WAR); Sandy Alcantara and Martin Perez (2.8 Baseball Reference WAR)
Projected Champion: Kevin Gausman
To lead the majors in pitching WAR, you need three main things: Durability, a low ERA and a high K/BB ratio.
Kevin Gausman has all of the above.
On the durability front, Gausman has made 165 starts and logged 985.0 innings since the beginning of 2016, both of which rank top 10 in the majors.
On the ERA front, he posted a 2.81 last season with the Giants and currently has a mark of 2.51 with the Blue Jays. And he has done so despite a pretty tough schedule: two starts against the Red Sox and one each against Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Cardinals, Astros, Mariners, Guardians and White Sox. As far as runs scored per game goes, that's five starts against teams in the top eight in the majors and just one against a team in the bottom eight.
And as far as K/BB is concerned, no one is better right now. After opening the season with five consecutive starts devoid of free passes, Gausman is sitting at 70 strikeouts and six walks on the year for a K/BB of 11.7. And among pitchers who have logged at least 200 innings of work since the beginning of 2020, his 5.22 K/BB ratio ranks seventh.
If he does lead the majors in WAR, it would be a minor miracle north of the border. Toronto hasn't had a pitcher even reach 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in a season since Roy Halladay in 2009. But Gausman is making the big bucks (five years, $110 million) to end that drought.
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