Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

The 9-6 Atlanta Falcons will host the 4-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in an NFC South clash that will rely largely upon the result of the Lions vs. Packers contest earlier in the day.

Atlanta is in the postseason as a wild card regardless, but if they win and the Lions lose, then they can secure the fifth seed rather than the sixth seed.

That may not matter to the Falcons to begin with, but if the Lions win at 1 p.m., then they'll be locked into the sixth spot.

The Bucs really wouldn't benefit from winning this game at all, as it would adversely affect their draft position, but you have to believe that they would like to end a disappointing season on a winning note.

There's no question that Tampa will at least play its starters and go for the victory.

If Atlanta plays its starters, then this should be a fairly easy win for the Falcons, but things will get much more interesting if the Falcons decide to rest some players, and I believe that is what will happen.

Where: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Ga.

When: Sunday, Jan. 1 at 4:15 p.m. EST

Watch: FOX; WTVT FOX 13 (Tampa Bay) and FOX 5 (Atlanta)

Spread: Atlanta (-11.5)

This line is obviously contingent upon the Falcons' stars playing for the entire game, but I simply can't see that happening, even if the Lions lose to a Packers team that is sure to rest starters with an undefeated season no longer on the table.

With that said, I think this game should be a pick 'em at the very worst.

It goes without saying that the Bucs are the picks in this game, as they should win outright, provided the Falcons play it safe in Week 17 and prepare for the postseason.

It wouldn't entirely be a surprise to see the Atlanta backups beat an uninspired Buccaneers team, but it certainly won't be by more than 11 points.

Over/Under: 46

Again, if Atlanta were to play its starters for the entire game, then this contest would probably go over easily thanks to Tampa Bay's porous pass defense.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan may not play more than a series or two, though, meaning Chris Redman will be in control of the Atlanta offense.

Suddenly, stopping the Falcons isn't such a daunting task for Tampa.

Regardless of whether the Falcons play their starters on defense or not, the Bucs aren't going to put up a ton of points, and they certainly won't score enough to eclipse the total of 46.

I think both teams will just try to get out of this game unscathed to an extent, and will play nice, so this should be a fairly low-scoring affair.

Buccaneers Key Injuries (According to CBS Sports)

Questionable: WR Arrelious Benn (neck), WR Preston Parker (concussion), DL Michael Bennett (toe), DL Adrian Clayborn (hamstring), DL Albert Haynesworth (knee), DL Roy Miller (back), DL Brian Price (ankle), LB Geno Hayes (finger)

Probable: WR Sammie Stroughter (knee), LB Adam Hayward (foot)

Falcons Key Injuries (According to CBS Sports)

Questionable: RB Michael Turner (groin), WR Julio Jones (ankle), WR Harry Douglas (groin, shoulder), WR Kerry Meier (groin), TE Tony Gonzalez (non-injury), TE Reggie Kelly (back), TE Michael Palmer (knee), DL John Abraham (non-injury), DL Ray Edwards (knee), LB Curtis Lofton (ankle), LB Stephen Nicholas (toe), DB Brent Grimes (knee)

Probable: DB Christopher Owens (hand)

Fantasy Big Plays

QB Josh Freeman (TB)—Every Falcon would be an advisable fantasy play in this game most weeks, but with most of them likely to play sparingly if at all, the Bucs' offensive players suddenly become valuable.

While you probably have a better option at quarterback than Josh Freeman if you're still alive in fantasy, he should have a nice day against Atlanta's 19th-ranked pass defense.

WR Mike Williams (TB)—Bucs receiver Mike Williams has been a major disappointment this season after a monster rookie campaign, but he remains Freeman's top target, so he has potential in this game.

Atlanta has a couple injured defensive backs that may sit, plus both defensive ends, so Freeman will have time to throw and find Williams if he can get open.

Keys to a Buccaneers Win

For the Bucs to win this game, everything pretty much comes down to what the Falcons do with their starters. If the starters sit, then Tampa has an excellent chance to come out on top.

The Buccaneers' season started off in promising fashion, as they went 4-2 out of the gates with wins over the Falcons and the New Orleans Saints.

Since then, they've lost an incredible nine straight games.

Because of that, you would think that pride would take over among the players, and that they will desperately want to win this game.

Regardless of who Atlanta trots out there, the defense has to clamp down far more than it has all season long.

Also, the Bucs could stand to give quarterback Josh Freeman some confidence heading into next year.

Keys to a Falcons Win

As stated previously, if the Falcons play their big guns then they should win, but I doubt that they will.

Michael Turner, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, John Abraham and Curtis Lofton are all listed as questionable and I don't think any of them will suit up. Quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Roddy White will probably play, but only for a series or two.

That means that pretty much everything will ride on the reserve players.

Tampa's defense is awful, so it isn't ridiculous to think that they could band together and beat the Bucs.

Backup Chris Redman has proven to be a capable quarterback in the league and backup running back Jason Snelling can carry the load as well.

If the Bucs aren't motivated, then the Falcons' backups could steal one.

Prediction

Buccaneers 20, Falcons 13