2012 NFL Mock Draft: High-Risk Players Worth Drafting in 1st Round

There are no "sure things" in the NFL.

There are even less "sure things" in the NFL draft.

The new CBA limits the crippling blow of swinging and missing on a high first-round draft pick, but it is still a risk almost every time.

Some are bigger risks than others, though, and those are the picks that can get a franchise in trouble. Every draft has them, and this is no different. 

However, sometimes the reward is too big to pass up. The phrase "high risk, high reward" can obviously go both ways.

Here are some of the players worth a first-round selection

*Draft order determined by combination of current record and projected finish.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-13): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Sure thing. Top prospect.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Not at the elite Joe Thomas/Jake Long level, but Kalil is a "can't miss" guy.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Better cover cornerback than last year's No. 5 pick and former teammate, Patrick Peterson.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Top wideout in the draft with solid hands and big playmaking skill.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

A reach here, but a massive need for Tampa Bay. The CB has great size and natural skill.

6. Cleveland Browns (4-11): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Value of running backs is still down, but Richardson is as elite and complete as they come.

7. Washington Redskins (5-10): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Our first big "high-risk" player, if Heisman Trophy winner RG3 enters the draft, there will be a lot of fuss over him.

Most people see a similar prospect to last year's No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, but RG3 is nearly three inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter.

He's also smarter with the football and a better pure quarterback than Newton was when he came out last year. But there is no telling how he'll handle the jump to the NFL from a Big 12 spread offense.

Players like Newton and Tim Tebow are making it easier for NFL coaches to warm up to the dual-threat quarterback in the league, but its sustained success is still in question.

If RG3 declares he'll likely be the No. 2 quarterback off the board. It won't come without question marks and a high-risk price tag, though.

8. Miami Dolphins (5-10): Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Likely returning back to school and unlikely to be the Dolphins if he doesn't, this is more need-based than anything. Jones would be a "high-risk" candidate if he declares, but he does have first-round ability.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Solid technician who can help Chiefs immediately.

10. Carolina Panthers (6-9): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

In the next mock update, Mr. Coples is going to slide down the board. The UNC defensive lineman finished his season in the Independence Bowl and left a poor lasting impression.

Size be damned, his production and overall level of play has not been up to par with his abilities. A year ago, he played better on the inside and this year, according to CBS Sports' Rob Rang, he turned down the opportunity to move back:

"

NFLDraftScout.com has learned that teammates and members of the UNC coaching staff approached Coples midseason about moving back inside to help the Tar Heels get more explosive pass-rushers on the edge. Coples declined. His reason, according to a source, was that moving back inside could call into question his versatility and thereby compromise his draft stock.

"

His play has now compromised his draft stock more than anything else. At 6'6", 280 pounds, he is certainly an intriguing physical specimen, but he's no elite athlete.

If the source's story is true, his selfishness is also a problem going forward.

In the end, his overall physical tools and potential should be enough to warrant a first-round selection. It shouldn't be a top 10 pick, though.

11. Buffalo Bills (6-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Solid, smart tackle prospect with very good feet.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Big-bodied playmaker with athleticism to perfectly complement Eagles wide receivers.

13. Seattle Seahawks (7-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Versatile big man with great size and potential to dominate.

14. San Diego Chargers (7-8): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Solid all-around defensive prospect.

15. Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

There is some risk with Ingram and his size, but he put it all together for Gamecocks this year.

16. Chicago Bears (7-8): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Big, solid lineman prospect who immediately makes the Bears better.

17. Tennessee Titans (8-7): Vontaze Burfict, LB, ASU

Oh, goodness. When it comes to the Sun Devils linebacker, there are two things stick out—physicality and immaturity.

He's young and will continue to grow up, but Burfict's reputation is one made up of irrational decisions, big hits and questionable character.

All of this is on the field, mind you.

He's even refused to come off the field before defying his coach's desire to speak with him.

Burfict is 6'3", 255 pounds and filled with potential. He's a super "high-risk, high-reward" draft pick, though. 

A team with a solid coaching staff and confidence will take a shot on him.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Speedy back with receiving skills and potential to develop into complete back.

19. New York Jets (8-7): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Best interior offensive lineman in the draft.

20. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

Super-instinctive linebacker with top-notch production.

21. Detroit Lions (10-5): David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

A bit of a reach, but Wilson's versatility is perfect for Detroit.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

The former Florida Gator would be a sure-fire first-round pick if he wasn't thrown off the team last spring.

Jenkins is no stranger to getting into trouble—it was not his first misdeed in Gainesville.

He is, however, a superior physical talent with good speed, great instincts, phenomenal ball skills and a knack for making plays.

The 5'10", 180-pound cornerback is a bit of a gambler, but he backs it up with big plays, too.

He is a first-round talent, but whichever team drafts him will make sure he's turned over a new leaf in his decision-making off the field.

23. Denver Broncos (8-7): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Versatile big man is a great fit for the Broncos' front four.

24. New York Giants (8-7): Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

Undersized linebacker with great speed and athleticism.

25. Houston Texans (10-5): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Most complete safety prospect in the draft with great experience, leadership and instincts.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

Mountain of man with versatility to play guard or tackle.

27. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 9-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

True boom-or-bust prospect situation reminds a little bit of Jonathan Baldwin last year. 

Jeffery, like Baldwin, was expected to have a big year but disappointed in part because of inconsistent quarterback play. Jeffery, like Baldwin, has great size and can make big plays downfield.

However, he lacks separation skills and doesn't always play up to his potential.

He could've been a top 10 pick, but he hasn't lived up to that billing at all.

If he puts it all together he could be great, but there is a chance he never does. Still, his potential and size will get a team to take a chance.

28. New England Patriots (via NO 12-3): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Edge-rusher with size, speed and experience. Could certainly be drafted higher than this.

29. Baltimore Ravens (11-4): Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

Big, athletic, mean linebacker with potential to excel at next level.

30. San Francisco 49ers (12-3): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Speedy,athletic receiver with potential to develop into complete package.

31. New England Patriots (12-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

Versatile playmaker with good size, speed and potential.

32. Green Bay Packers (14-1): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

Pass-rushing force with potential to rise up draft board.